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Global Marketing Index

Released: June 19, 2014

Strong trading conditions support global marketers

  • Headline GMI recorded 56.7 in June, indicating a favourable outlook
  • Marketer optimism is highest in the Americas for fourth consecutive month
  • Marketing budgets continue to rise

Latest data signalled that confidence among global marketers stayed positive in June, reported Warc’s Global Marketing Index.

Globally, the headline GMI measure –which takes into account marketers’ expectations for trading conditions, marketing budgets and staffing levels –recorded an index value of 56.7 this month, where a reading of 50 indicates neutral sentiment. This represents a slight index decline of 1.3 points from May but a 0.8 point rise from this time last year.

Marketer optimism was the highest in the Americas for the fourth consecutive month, with the region’s headline GMI registering a reading of 59.2, indicating rapid improvement. The index shows a generally stable position, with readings fluctuating by just 0.7 points since April.

The outlook also remains positive in Europe, where the headline GMI recorded 55.7 in June, although this represents a modest 1.5 point dip from last month. On a value of 55.2, marketer sentiment is similar in Asia Pacific, which also recorded an index fall of 1.8 points from May.

Within the headline GMI, the outlook for global trading conditions continues to indicate strong optimism on 60.0, a 1.4 point dip from May.

Solid growth for the Americas, where the index for trading conditions improved 2.0 points to 62.3 this month, helped offset the dip in index value registered in Europe, which was down 4.5 points to 57.8. Despite this drop, overall conditions in the region continue to show solid improvement. The index for trading conditions in Asia Pacific also showed rapid improvement on 59.6, and remained virtually flat (-0.6 points) compared with May.

The second component index of the headline GMI, the index of marketing budgets, registered 54.1 globally in June, signalling further increases in planned spend. This represents a slight decrease on May’s index value of 55.7.

The outlook for marketing budgets is strongest in the Americas on 56.5 (down 1.3 points month on month), followed by Asia Pacific on 53.1 (up 0.1 points) and Europe on 52.8. The European index recorded a steeper dip month on month drop of 3.9 points but continues to show that budgets are improving overall.

In line with previous Global Marketing Index results, mobile and digital (excluding mobile) look set to maintain strong budget growth relative to other media, although the rate of growth lessened this month. Planned digital spend recorded an index value of 74.5 (down 2.7 points from May), while mobile registered an index value of 71.1 (down 1.3 points).

Of the traditional media, the global reading for TV recorded an index value of 50.5 in June and demonstrated its seventh successive month of planned budget increases. The index dropped dropped 2.7 points compared with May but remains positive.

Elsewhere, the global indexes for press (36.7) and radio (45.2) continue to indicate decreases in planned spend, although index gains of 2.3 points and 2.9 points respectively suggest a slower rate of decline.

The third and final component of the headline GMI –the index of staffing levels –fell by 0.8 points this month to 56.0, but continues to signal generally improving conditions overall.

The Americas recorded an index value of 58.8 while Europe registered 56.5 by this measure. The rate of hiring is more modest in Asia Pacific (53.1) than in the other global regions this month, after an index value dip of 5.0 against May.


 











Methodology 
The Global Marketing Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. As an example of calculating a diffusion index, if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity.



About the Index 
The Global Marketing Index provides a unique monthly indicator of the state of the global marketing industry, by tracking current conditions among marketers.

Our global panel (1,225 members) consists of experienced executives working for brand owners, media owners, creative and media agencies and other organisations serving the marketing industry. The panel has been carefully selected to reflect trends in the three main global regions: Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe.




About Warc 
Warc is the global provider of ideas and evidence to marketing people. It has produced trusted and independent data on advertising expenditure and media costs for more than 25 years, and has partnerships with leading advertising organisations in more than 80 countries. Warc’s premium online service, www.warc.com, is the largest single source of intelligence for the marketing, advertising and media communities worldwide. With subscribers in over 100 countries, warc.com is a unique resource relied upon by major creative and media agency networks, market research companies, media owners, multinational advertisers and business schools, to help tackle any marketing challenge. In addition to the online service, Warc publishes five magazines, provides industry data and runs events.

To find out more about Warc, take a free trial at www.warc.com/trial.

 
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