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Global Marketing Index (GMI)

Released: November 30, 2016
Global Marketing Budgets Fall for
Third Consecutive Month

  • Trading conditions improve sharply in Europe
  • Digital and Media continue to expand share of budgets in all regions
  • Employment growth continues to slow

The Global Marketing Headline Index fell to 52.3 in November down slightly from October. This indicates that global marketing activity is growing slowly. Only the European GMI increased in November to reach 56.1, the second consecutive increase after six months of decline. The Headline Index for the Asia-Pacific region fell to 50.5, indicating a very small rise in activity not far away from stagnation. In the Americas, marketing activity declined for the second successive month with an index value recorded just below the 50.0 ‘no change level’.

The Global Marketing Budgets Index in October recorded a value down on the month before. This is the third month in a row that the global index has been below the 50.0 ‘no change’ level. This indicates another month of falling expenditure. Marketing budgets also fell in the Asia-Pacific Region where a value of 48.1 was recorded. The last time this region experienced growth in spending was eleven months ago in January 2016. In the Americas, budgets fell with an index value of 45.0 recorded, the fifth successive month it has had a value below the 50.0 ‘no-change’ level. Budgets grew in November only in Europe, up on the previous month. The Global Trading Conditions Index rose slightly in November to 53.8. The trading conditions index rose in Europe and the Americas but fell back in the Asia-Pacific Region.

Traditional media (TV, Press, Radio and OOH) had a mixed month across the regions in November. Spending on TV fell globally and in all regions apart from Europe which recorded an index level of 52.4 in November, up for the second successive month. OOH fell globally and in the Americas but grew very slightly in Europe and the Asia Pacific region. Press and Radio also fell globally and in all regions, while Digital and Mobile media continued to expand rapidly, increasing their share of marketing budgets. This growth occurred globally and across all regions in November.

The Staffing Index, which reflects the number of staff taken on compared to the same period last year, saw growth globally with an index value of 54.0 recorded in November. This was down by 0.6 on the month before and was the seventh successive monthly fall in the value of the index. Global employment growth was bolstered by stronger rises in staffing levels in Europe compared to much slower growth than in other regions.




 






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Methodology 
The Global Marketing Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. As an example of calculating a diffusion index, if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity.

The July 2016 release uses the un-adjusted data for the commentary to show the impact of the UK referendum on the European and global data. Un-adjusted and moving average indexes are available with a data subscription. 



About the Global Marketing Index 
The World Economics Global Marketing Index (GMI) provides a unique monthly indicator of the state of the global marketing industry, by tracking current conditions among marketers.

Our global panel (2,000+ members) consists of experienced executives working for brand owners, media owners, creative and media agencies and other organisations serving the marketing industry. The panel has been carefully selected to reflect trends in the three main global regions: Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe.



About World Economics
World Economics is an organisation dedicated to producing analysis, insight and data relating to questions of importance in understanding the world economy. Its parent company Information Sciences Ltd has a long history of the development of key business information today used throughout the world, including the origination of the Purchasing Managers Indexes in Europe and Asia (now owned by Markit) .

Currently our primary research objective is to encourage and assist the development of better and faster measures of economic activity. In cases where we believe we can contribute directly, as opposed to through highlighting the work of others, we are producing our own measures of economic activity.

Our work is mainly of interest to investors, organisations and individuals in the financial sector and to significant corporations with global operations, as well as governments and academic economists.
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