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China Growth Tracker

World Economics - July 2015

The China Growth Tracker is designed to provide a graphical snapshot of the very latest Chinese economic data.

Speed Read
  • China’s economy expanded 7.0% year-on-year in Q1 2015, compared to 7.7% in Q1 2014.
  • Leading indicators showed slower but still strong growth, with the headline SMI down to 52.9 in June.
  • Consumer demand remained solid, with passenger car sales rising to 1.2% in the year to May.
  • • Total retail sales of consumer goods registered an annual increase of 10.2% during May.



GDP Growth
Annual Real GDP Growth 1961-2014

Data for the last 50 years shows near continuous strong growth in the Chinese economy.




Quarterly Real GDP Growth Q1 2008 – Q1 2015 






Leading & Composite Indicators 
OECD Composite Leading Indicator
The (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity” The CLI for China uses the following components: Production of chemical fertilizer (tonnes), monetary aggregate m2 (Renminbi). Production of manufactured crude steel (tonnes), 5000 Industrial Enterprises Diffusion Index, Overseas order level (%), buildings (m2), Production of motor vehicles (number), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Turnover (Renminbi).




The Conference Board Leading Economic Index
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China includes total loans issued by financial institutions, 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index (raw materials supply index), official manufacturing PMI Supplier deliveries sub-indices, Consumer Expectations Index, Total floor space started, and official manufacturing PMI Export orders sub-indice.




World Economics China Sales Managers’ Index
The China Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers throughout China to produce the earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Chinese economy.




World Economics 'Li Keqiang' Index
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was quoted as saying that he preferred to use a range of direct indicators of economic activity (as opposed to GDP) when assessing economic growth (See The Economist, Dec 9th, 2010). His top three were electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and bank lending.




CEMAC-GS Leading Index
The (China) Leading Index is a joint development between The China Economic Monitoring Centre (CEMAC/NBS) and Goldman Sachs Asia (GS) for the monitoring of national economic performance. The components of the Index include: Industrial production, investment in fixed assets, retail sales, imports and exports, revenues, profits of industry, residential disposable income, financial loans, M2 money supply, CPI and the business cycle signal index.





Consumer Indexes 

IPSOS Consumer Assesment
The IPSOS Global @dvisor: uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide.





Nielsen Quarterly Consumer Confidence Survey
The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, established in 2005, tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 consumers in 56 countries.





Consumer Demand

Total Retail Sales

Chinese consumers continue to spend more on retail goods.



Car Sales
The Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers compiles statistics on the domestic sales of passenger cars.






Industrial Indexes 
Business Surveys

NBS Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)
     
         Manufacturing                                                                               Non-Manufacturing PMI



Combined PMI
This combined PMI is created from the NBS PMI’s, weighted by manufacturing and non-manufacturing in the Chinese economy.




Industrial Production




Exports

Chinese Total Exports



Power

Electricity Consumption





Electricity Generation




Materials

Steel Production
Steel & Cement are two of the largest components in new construction. With construction accounting for such a large proportion of Chinese industry, these indexes are a useful indicator of new growth both in the construction industry.



Cement Production





The China Growth Tracker: Note to Users
Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.

World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.

See www.worldeconomics.com/ChinaGrowthTracker  for updates

Sources

Long term GDP, World Bank, IMF

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableSelection/selectvariables.aspx?source=world-development-indicators

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx

Short term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics

http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01

OECD CLI, OECD

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Conference Board

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

World Economics China Sales Managers’ Index, World Economics

http://www.worldeconomics.com/SMI/China-SalesManagersIndex.efp

Li Keqiang (Rail Volumes), National Bureau of Statistics

http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

Li Keqiang (Electricity), National Energy Administration

http://www.nea.gov.cn/

Li Keqiang (Bank Lending), People’s Bank of China

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/955/2015/20150624084057589826684/20150624084057589826684_.html

CEMAC-GS Leading Index
http://www.cemac.org.cn/Bxxzs.html

IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14451

Nielsen Consumer Confidence, Nielsen

http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/nielsenglobal/apac/docs/reports/2015/nielsen-global-consumer-confidence-report-q1-2015.pdf

Total Retail Sales, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201506/t20150612_1158174.html

Car Sales, CAAM

http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20150519/0905158847.html

NBS Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201507/t20150701_1197127.html

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201507/t20150701_1197232.html

Industrial Production

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201504/t20150415_712755.html

Chinese Total Exports
http://www.customs-info.com/Data/DataThed.aspx
Electricity Consumption
http://www.nea.gov.cn/

Electricity Generation

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201504/t20150415_712755.html

Crude Steel & Cement, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201506/t20150612_1158161.html


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