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China Growth Tracker

Dariana Tani  - July 2014

The China Growth Tracker is designed to provide a graphical snapshot of the very latest Chinese economic data.

Speed Read
  • China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.4% in Q1 2014, down from 7.7% in Q4 2013.
  • Leading indicators suggest strong economic activity in June, in line with the Headline SMI’s figure of 57.0.
  • Consumer demand remains high, with retail sales hitting their highest level in five months.
  • Industrial indexes confirm solid growth in the economy, with exports starting to pick up pace.



GDP Growth

Annual Real GDP Growth 1961-2013
Data for the last 50 years shows near continuous strong growth in the Chinese economy.

N.B. 2013 data is estimated by the IMF




Quarterly Real GDP Growth Q1 2008 – Q1 2014 




Leading & Composite Indicators 
World Economics 'Li Keqiang' Index
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was quoted as saying that he preferred to use a range of direct indicators of economic activity (as opposed to GDP) when assessing economic growth (See The Economist, Dec 9th, 2010). His top three were electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and bank lending.




World Economics China Sales Managers’ Index
The China Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers throughout China to produce the earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Chinese economy.



The Conference Board Leading Economic Index
The Conference Board LEI for China includes total loans issued by financial institutions, 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index (raw materials supply index), official manufacturing PMI Supplier deliveries sub-indices, Consumer Expectations Index, Total floor space started, and official manufacturing PMI Export orders sub-indices.




OECD Composite Leading Indicator
The (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity” The CLI for China uses the following components: Production of chemical fertilizer (tonnes), monetary aggregate m2 (Renminbi). Production of manufactured crude steel (tonnes), 5000 Industrial Enterprises Diffusion Index, Overseas order level (%), buildings (m2), Production of motor vehicles (number), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Turnover (Renminbi).




CEMAC-GS Leading Index
The (China) Leading Index is a joint development between The China Economic Monitoring Centre (CEMAC/NBS) and Goldman Sachs Asia (GS) for the monitoring of national economic performance. The components of the Index include: Industrial production, investment in fixed assets, retail sales, imports and exports, revenues, profits of industry, residential disposable income, financial loans, M2 money supply, CPI and the business cycle signal index.





Consumer Indexes 

Consumer Confidence

IPSOS Consumer Assesment
The IPSOS Global @dvisor: uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide.




Consumer Demand

Total Retail Sales

Chinese consumers continue to spend more on retail goods.




Car Sales
The Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers compiles statistics on the domestic sales of passenger cars.




Industrial Indexes 
Business Surveys

NBS Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)


Combined PMI
This combined PMI is created from the NBS PMI’s, weighted by manufacturing and non-manufacturing in the Chinese economy.




Industrial Production



Exports

Chinese Total Exports



Power

Electricity Consumption



Materials

Steel Production
Steel & Cement are two of the largest components in new construction. With construction accounting for such a large proportion of Chinese industry, these indexes are a useful indicator of new growth both in the construction industry.



Cement Production





Sources

Long term GDP, Penn Data Tables

http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt70/pwt70_form.php

Short term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/Quarterlydata/

OECD CLI, OECD

http://www.oecd.org/document/51/0,3746,en_2649_34349_49381363_1_1_1_1,00.html

Conference Board LEI, Conference Board

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

Li Keqiang (Electricity), National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


Li Keqiang (Rail Volumes), National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


Li Keqiang (Bank Lending), People’s Bank of China

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/955/index_2.html


PMI – CFLP, Li & Fung

http://www.lifunggroup.com/eng/knowledge/research.php?report=pmi_monthly


Consumer Confidence, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11216


Total Retail Sales, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


US Exports to China, St Louis Fed

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXPCH?cid=16


Cars Sold, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


Industrial Production, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


Crude Steel & Cement, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


Transport Growth, National Bureau of Statistics

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/index.htm


Loans, People’s Bank of China

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/955/index_2.html

Car Sales, CAAM

http://www.caam.org.cn/english/


Nielsen Consumer Confidence, Nielsen


http://www.nielsen.com/content/corporate/global/en.html


World Bank

http://data.worldbank.org/



 
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equalearth
535 days ago
at the moment this growth rate means that China will double its economy every 12 years: it means that China will continue to strip the planet of its finite resources. In the endgame over resources who do you think will prevail? Good luck! equalearth@twitter




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