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How Errors in Seasonal Adjustment Factors for US GDP contributes to misleading National Accounts Data

World Economics - July 2015

Speed Read
  • US Q1 GDP data may seriously under record economic growth.
  • Survey evidence suggests US GDP annual growth in Q1 2015 was closer to 2% than the -0.2% official third estimate.
  • Analysis suggests that faulty seasonal adjustment methods are responsible for the problem.
  • Improved and timely advance estimates of US GDP growth are available from the Sales Managers’ Index produced and published monthly by World Economics.


Official Estimates of Q1 GDP Growth

The rapid deceleration of US economic growth indicated in the three estimat...

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