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India Growth Tracker

Dariana Tani  - April 2015

Speed Read
  • India’s GDP rose at an annual rate of 6.0% in Q4 2014 compared to 5.8% in the Q3 2014.
  • Leading indicators showed sustained expansion in economic activity, with the SMI at 68.2 in March.
  • Consumer confidence remained high, with the Nielsen Confidence Index up by 0.3 points in Q4.2014.
  • Domestic demand continued to rise, with car sales registering a year-on-year rise of 6.85% in February.


GDP Growth

Real Annual GDP Growth 1961-2014
Real GDP statistics compiled by World Economics show Indian GDP has grown rapidly over the past 20 years.



Real Quarterly GDP Growth Q1 2008 – Q4 2014






Leading and Composite Indicators

OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)
The (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points of economic activity.” The index components include industrial production, car sales, monetary aggregates, share prices and the call money rate.  



The Conference Board Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India includes Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill), Stock Prices: SENSEX Average, Real effective exchange rate index, Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, f.o.b., Cargo Handled: Domestic and International, IP: Capital Goods, and the PMI: Services Business Activity.




World Economics India Sales Managers’ Index 
The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and produces the earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Indian economy.  



Consumer Indexes

Consumer Confidence

IPSOS Global @dvisor 
Ipsos uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide to measure consumer perspectives on the present state of the economy, as well as a 6 month outlook. 




Nielsen Global Online 
The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, established in 2005, tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 consumers in 56 countries. 





Consumer Demand


Car Sales
Car Sales are an important part of Indian consumer spending. 






Industrial Indexes

Steel Production
With steel being so important in new construction, steel production is a useful barometer for growth. 



Transport

Railway Freight
Railway freight is cited as being the ‘backbone’ of Indian industry. 





Financial Indexes

House Prices: NHB ‘Residex’
National Housing Bank compiles a quarterly index of house prices in major Indian Cities.  



 
The India Growth Tracker: Note to Users

 
Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.
 
World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.
See http://www.worldeconomics.com/IndiaGrowthTracker for updates.


Sources


Long term GDP, World Bank, IMF

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableSelection/selectvariables.aspx?source=world-development-indicators
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx

Short term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics

http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/mospi_press_releases.htm
OECD Composite Leading Index (CLI), OECD

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Conference Board
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

World Economics India Sales Managers’ Index, World Economics

http://www.worldeconomics.com/SMI/India-SalesManagersIndex.efp

IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14348

Nielsen Online Consumer Index, Nielson

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/press-room/2015/global-consumer-confidence-down-two-points-in-q4-2014-up-two-points-for-the-year.html

Monthly Car Sales, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)

http://www.siamindia.com/
Steel Production, World Steel Association

http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html
Railway Freight, Indian Railways

http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/uploads/directorate/stat_econ/MTHSTAT/2015/Revenue_Feb_15.pdf

NHB Residex, National Housing Bank (NHB)

http://www.nhb.org.in/Residex/Data&Graphs.php


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