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Indian leading indicators show steady growth whilst consumer confidence continues to rise.

Dariana Tani  - July 2014

Speed Read
  • Latest data show economy grew 4.4% in Q4 2013 compared to 5.4% in Q4 2012.
  • Leading indicators show steady growth, consistent with the Headline SMI’s reading of 66.0 in June.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rise, with car sales registering a year-on-year rise of 3.09% in May.
  • Industrial Indexes confirm that the economy still growing at a strong pace.


GDP Growth

Real Annual GDP Growth 1961-2013
Real GDP statistics compiled by World Economics show Indian GDP has grown rapidly over the past 20 years.



Real Quarterly GDP Growth Q2 2008 – QQ 2013






Leading and Composite Indicators

OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)
The (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points of economic activity.” The index components include industrial production, car sales, monetary aggregates, share prices and the call money rate. 




World Economics India Sales Managers’ Index 
The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and produces the earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Indian economy. 



Consumer Indexes

Consumer Confidence

IPSOS Global @dvisor 
Ipsos uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide to measure consumer perspectives on the present state of the economy, as well as a 6 month outlook. 




Nielsen Global Online 
The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, established in 2005, tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 consumers in 56 countries. 





Consumer Demand

Car Sales
Car Sales are an important part of Indian consumer spending. 






Industrial Indexes

Steel Production
With steel being so important in new construction, steel production is a useful barometer for growth. 



Transport

Railway Freight
Railway freight is cited as being the ‘backbone’ of Indian industry. 





Financial Indexes

House Prices: NHB ‘Residex’
National Housing Bank compiles a quarterly index of house prices in 15 major Indian Cities. The Index has been steadily increasing in India over the past two years. 



 
World Economics India Growth Monitor: Note to Users

 
Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.
 
World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.



Sources


Long term GDP, Penn Data Tables

http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt70/pwt70_form.php

OECD Composite Leading Index (CLI), OECD

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI

Electricity Generation, Central Electricity Authority (CEA)

http://www.cea.nic.in/executive_summary.html

Monthly Car Sales, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)

http://www.siamindia.com/

NHB Residex, National Housing Bank (NHB)

http://www.nhb.org.in/Residex/Data&Graphs.php

IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11302

Nielson Online Consumer Index, Nielson

http://nielsen.com/us/en/insights/reports-downloads/2011.html

Steel Production, World Steel Association

http://old.worldsteel.org/

Railway Freight, Indian Railways

http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/

World Bank,

http://data.worldbank.org/



 
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There are 2 comments on this paper.
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Devinder Gill
285 days ago
India plans to launch trading of government bond futures within the next two months as part of efforts to deepen its financial markets, according to several sources involved in the discussions with the central bank.

VARGHESE JOSEPH
564 days ago
This is really useful




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