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India Growth Tracker

World Economics - June 2016

Speed Read
  • India’s GDP rose at an annual rate of 7.9% in Q1 2016 compared to 7.5% in the same quarter last year.
  • Leading indicators showed rapid economic growth, with the Sales Managers’ Index at 68.7 in May.
  • Steel production in India fell from a March peak to 8059 thousand metric tons, growing 3.8% YnY
  • Total Indian Exports fell by 6.7% in April 2016 against April 2015..


GDP Growth

Real Annual GDP Growth 1961-2015
Real GDP statistics compiled by World Economics show Indian GDP has grown rapidly over the past 20 years.

Real Quarterly GDP Growth Q2 2012 – Q1 2016




Leading and Composite Indicators
OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)
The (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points of economic activity.” The index components include industrial production, car sales, monetary aggregates, share prices and the call money rate.  


The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and produces the earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Indian economy.  
Ipsos uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide to measure consumer perspectives on the present state of the economy, as well as a 6 month outlook. 


The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, established in 2005, tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 consumers in 56 countries. 



The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers compiles statistics on the domestic sales of passenger cars. 



Industrial Indexes

MNI Deutsche Börse Group Business Sentiment

The MNI India Business Sentiment is a key measure of the Indian economy’s strength and standing. It can be used to measure the outlook for government policy moves and their impact on the market.

Steel Production
With steel being so important in new construction, steel production is a useful barometer for growth.

Transport
Railway Freight 
Railway freight is cited as being the ‘backbone’ of Indian industry. 



Financial Indexes
National Housing Bank compiles a quarterly index of house prices in major Indian Cities.  


The India Growth Tracker: Note to Users

Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.
 
World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.
See http://www.worldeconomics.com/IndiaGrowthTracker for updates.


Sources

Long term GDP, World Bank, IMF

Long term GDP, World Bank, IMF

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?Code=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&id=af3ce82b&report_name=Popular_indicators&populartype=series&ispopular=y

Short term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics

http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/mospi_press_releases.htm

OECD Composite Leading Index (CLI), OECD

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI

World Economics India Sales Managers’ Index, World Economics

http://www.worldeconomics.com/SMI/India-SalesManagersIndex.efp

IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15466

Nielsen Online Consumer Index, Nielson

http://www.nielsen.com/be/en/insights/reports/2016/q4-2015-consumer-confidence-report.html

Monthly Car Sales, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)

http://www.siamindia.com/
MNI Deutsche Börse Group Business Sentiment

http://www.mni-indicators.com/index.php?article_id=47

Industrial Production

http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/iip_12may16.pdf

Exports

http://www.dgciskol.nic.in/pub_msft_export.asp

Steel Production, World Steel Association

http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production0.html

Railway Freight, Indian Railways

http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/uploads/directorate/stat_econ/MTHSTAT/2016/Revenue_March_2016.pdf

NHB Residex, National Housing Bank (NHB)

http://www.nhb.org.in/Residex/Data&Graphs.php


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