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Nigerian GDP to rise by 50 percent on improved measurement

Brian Sturgess - April 2013

Speed Read
  • Economic statistics for many African countries are seriously deficient. In Ghana an improvement in evaluating economic activity, mainly in the Services sector, added 60% to the size of measured GDP in 2010.
  • Nigeria, Africa’s most populous, and second largest economy is in the process of carrying out a similar revaluation of its national economic activity which is expected to raise measured GDP by around 50%.
  • The revision will have a number of significant economic consequences for Nigeria including an improvement in the country’s debt ratio and a potential rise in the allocation of international investment into the Nigerian stock market.

The Nigerian economy is expected to be declared to be between 40-60% bigger as a result of improvements in the methods by which it is measured. This will occur as a result of a change in the base year from which future GDP estimates are made from 1990 to 2008. The new data was expected to be released last year then January of this year, but now the data pencilled in by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics is September 2013. According to the IMF Nigerian GDP per capita at market exchanges was US$1,522 in 2011 so a revision upwards of GDP by a mid-range estimate of 50% would have raised GDP per capita at market exchange rates, to US$2,283.

 

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