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Measuring GDP in North and South America

  • The use of different national income standards across the Americas has an impact on cross-country comparability. In the USA the application of the latest standard in 2013 added 3.6% to measured GDP.
  • Most American countries use a national income accounting standard that fails to record the informal economy which could accounts for between 8 and 64% of GDP in countries across the region.
  • Many countries have seriously out of date base years and World Economics estimates that bringing these up to date could add nearly US$1 trillion to aggregate GDP for the group as a whole.
  • The most unreliable economic data is produced in Argentina which has manipulated inflation and GDP statistics since 2007 artificially raising real GDP by an estimated 12.2% in 2012.
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Data Releases - Sales Managers Indexes

New from World Economics: The Sales Managers' Index: Americas

  THE AMERICAS SMI: JUNE 2017
Pan-Americas SMI Slows in June

The Sales Managers' Index: United States of America

  UNITED STATES SMI: JUNE 2017
U.S. Sales Managers’ Index Reports Improved Economic Activity for Quarter 2
New from World Economics: The Sales Managers' Index: Mexico

  MEXICO SMI: JUNE 2017
Mexico’s Recovery from 
Recession Continues

The Sales Managers' Index: Latin America

  LATIN AMERICA SMI: JUNE 2017
Sales Mangers’ Index Falls Back Into Recession Territory 

New from World Economics: The Sales Managers' Index: NAFTA

  NAFTA SMI: JUNE 2017
NAFTA’s Market Growth 
Increases to 21 Month High




Data Releases - Growth Trackers

Growth Tracker: United States

  JUNE 2017
Growth Tracker: United States
Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been revised up at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017. Total US car sales slowed to 557,312 units in May, down -9.5% on year ago.
 

Papers on North America



  Equity Returns Assumptions Remain Totally Unrealistic
Equity returns over long periods of time are unlikely to significantly exceed real GDP per capita growth rates which have averaged around 2% in Europe and the USA over the last fifty years.


  The Change in Corporate Behaviour
Deficit finance is needed to offset ex-ante savings’ surpluses and provides an adequate solution, provided that the surpluses are cyclical. Today additional policies are needed because the surplus in the business sector has become structural.


  Why Hasn’t the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective?
This paper evaluates alternative empirical approaches to measuring the impact of fiscal policy and presents new results based on simulations of a large econometric model of the US economy.


  It’s Time to Retire the US Military’s Retirement System
The paper uses previous studies that reflect service members’ ‘value’ of retirement pensions and US Department of Defense net present value assumptions to prove his case and demonstrate how the DoD can save tens of billions of US dollars.

  The Temptation for Protectionism and American Trade Policy
The Great Recession of 2007–2009 originated in the United States and quickly spread throughout the economies of Canada and Europe. Soon these countries imported fewer goods produced by emerging countries and the crisis became global. International trade collapsed at a pace unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.


Papers on Latin America



  Argentina’s Inflation Data Problems
Argentina has published its new consumer price index showing prices rose in January 2014 by 3.7% compared to unofficial estimates of 4.1%. The government has manipulated official inflation statistics since 2007.


  Argentina’s Inflation Data Problems
This paper reproduces Argentine national income from 2007 using standard methods and original sector data and finds that declared GDP is 12.2% higher in 1993 prices due to political intervention.


  The Argentine Productivity Slowdown
This research proposes a methodology in order to identify TFP gains in the strict sense of positive shifts in the production function, independent of short-run cyclical fluctuations in the utilization of productive factors and relative prices effects.


  Finance, Technology and Multinationals from the Periphery
An analyses of the emergence of Latin American multinational corporations, with a particular emphasis on the roles of finance and technology. It is established that the need to acquire foreign technology and finance has played a key role in their emergence.


  Economic Growth in Venezuela
An empirical analysis of Venezuela’s economic growth in the last several decades, providing possible explanations for the country’s weak performance relative to its peers.




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