World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data


The Sales Managers' Index: India

Sales experience strong uplift ahead of summer season

  • India headline SMI suggests solid growth in March
  • Business Confidence continues to be very positive
  • Market Indexes reflect strong sales in all sectors

The India Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers throughout India to produce the earliest source of understanding about the speed and direction of the economy.


Overview
The overall Headline Sales Managers’ Index provides the earliest data each month reflecting all private sector economic activity in India. The seasonally adjusted Index for March of 58.9 is consistent with real growth in the economy over the last month.

The Index suggests that the Indian economy has been gaining momentum over the past few months and has enjoyed a period of strong growth in the first quarter of 2014.


Business Confidence
Confidence among Sales Managers continued to be very high in March, registering 75.5.

This very high confidence level signals good opportunities for business and economic development.

Panellists remain hopeful that after the upcoming elections, the economy would see significant improvements as new Government investment takes hold.


Market Growth
The Market Growth Index reflects the general state of the market and registered 53.2 in March. The direction of the index confirms panellists’ views that the decline seen over the past few months has ended and that the economy is thriving.

Market growth was higher in the manufacturing sector during March, is congruent with Sales Managers’ views that the wider global recovery is having a positive impact on the Indian economic environment.


Product Sales
The Product Sales Index represents sales made by respondents own companies rather than the market as a whole.

Sales have continued to improve in March, with the index reading accelerating to 58.7. Sales Managers’ have noted that the strengthening internal market coupled with the strong US economic recovery has had a positive effect on sales growth.


Prices Charged
The Prices Charged Index registered an increase from last month but still reflects falling prices, albeit at a very slow rate. The index reading of 48.7 continues to edge closer to the 50 ‘no change’ level.

In unadjusted terms, the Prices Charged Index indicates Sales Managers’ have increased prices marginally for the second time in 6 months. Panellists suggested that stiff competition is keeping price rises to a minimum.


Staffing Levels
Strong confidence and the return of growth means managers continue to add to payrolls at a steady pace.


Summary
World Economics Chief Executive Ed Jones commented:

"The Sales Managers’ Index is the earliest all sector economic indicator for India.

After a difficult period of slowing growth in the last quarter, all indicators are pointing towards a modest to strong recovery in economic activity.

Manufacturing activity continues to lead the way in March and general sales have been strong. This suggests that growth GDP growth statistics for Q1 2014 should be strong."







 













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E: Amelia.Myles@worldeconomics.com




Notes to Editors
The Sales Managers’ Index is produced by World Economics and is based on original survey data collected from a panel of Sales managers in all sectors of the Indian economy except those controlled by the Government.
 


Methodology
The Sales Managers’ Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity. 



About the Sales Managers’ Index
The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a set of unique economic activity reports covering a wide range of sectors and industries (except those controlled by Government) in over 70 countries worldwide. The Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing. 

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being really at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery. 

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the economy. 

The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data. Sister products include the World Economics Journal, the World Price Index, the Global Marketing Index, and Country Growth Trackers.

 
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There are 2 comments on this paper.
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Peke
585 days ago
Good to see real expertise on display. Your contributoin is most welcome.

aruna nishanka
723 days ago
This is a niceĀ initiativeĀ from you, thank you




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