World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data


The Sales Managers' Index: India

Released: September 23, 2014

Headline SMI continues to signal rapid economic expansion in September

  • Business Confidence falls but remains very high
  • Product Sales increases in line with Market Growth
  • Prices Charged declines for second consecutive month


Overview
The India Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI), a composite indicator (derived from an average of the Business Confidence, Market Growth, Sales, Prices and Staffing Indexes) provides the most up-to-date monthly assessment of economic activity in India.

The Headline Index fell for the second consecutive month to register a value of 67.0 in September, after falling to 67.3 in August, indicating that the country’s economic activity continues to grow at a fast pace.


Business Confidence
The Business Confidence Index fell slightly to 91.5 in September, down from 91.8 in August, indicating that the outlook for business remained very positive.

Panellists reported Modi’s pro-business and pro-job creation agenda as the main factors driving these very high levels of confidence.


Market Growth
The Market Growth Index reflects growth of the general marketplace in panellists’ own industry sectors.

The Index increased marginally to 65.6 in September, up from 65.3 in August, the highest level since April 2012, and the eleventh successive month of increases.

This suggests that Sales Managers continue to experience strong levels of market growth, congruent with the very high levels of business confidence.


Product Sales
The Product Sales Index represents sales made by respondents’ own companies.

The Index rose to 68.2 in September, following a slight decline of 0.9 in August, suggesting that sales are growing in line with market growth, and that they are increasing at a faster pace compared to last month.


Prices Charged
The Prices Charged Index declined for the second straight month in September to reach a figure of 51.5, down from 52.8 in August, the sharpest decline since December 2013 when the Index fell by 2.2 points.

This indicates that prices are rising at a moderate pace and that inflationary pressures are decelerating.

Panellists pointed out that the decline in prices was helped mainly by slower annual increases in the price of fuel, and clothes

Staffing Levels
The Staffing Index, which reflects the number of staff taken on compared to the same period last year, fell to its lowest level since February 2014.

The index came in at 58.2 in September, down from 58.9 in August, the fourth successive monthly decline

This indicates that the job market remains strong but that the pace of increase has slowed compared with the previous three months.


Summary
World Economics Chief Executive Ed Jones commented:

"Despite a slight decline in the Indian Headline SMI, driven mostly by a fall in the Prices Charged and Staffing Indexes, the overall September reading continues to signal fast economic expansion in the country, with Business Confidence, Market Growth and Sales Indexes rising at a rapid pace."






 













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Notes to Editors
The Sales Managers’ Index is produced by World Economics and is based on original survey data collected from a panel of Sales managers in all sectors of the Indian economy except those controlled by the Government.
 


Methodology
The Sales Managers’ Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity. 



About the Sales Managers’ Index
The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a set of unique economic activity reports covering a wide range of sectors and industries (except those controlled by Government) in over 70 countries worldwide. The Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing. 

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being really at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery. 

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the economy. 

The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data. Sister products include the World Economics Journal, the World Price Index, the Global Marketing Index, and Country Growth Trackers.

 
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There are 2 comments on this paper.
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Peke
765 days ago
Good to see real expertise on display. Your contributoin is most welcome.

aruna nishanka
903 days ago
This is a nice initiative from you, thank you




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