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The Sales Managers Index: India

Released: December 20, 2016

Shockwaves Run Through the Indian Economy But
Business Confidence Remains High

  • Sales and Market Growth Indexes drop sharply
  • Recruitment Growth Continues Despite Cash Ban
  • Price inflation remains very low

The recent move to ban 500Rs and 1,000Rs notes in an attempt to crack down on corruption, “black money” and illegal cash holdings, sent a sharp shockwave through the Indian economy in December. The Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) hit a 5 year high in November but the index has slowed dramatically in December, reversing 8 months of gains. The Sales Growth Index fell sharply by 9.6 index points and the overall Market Growth Index by 7.4 index points for the month, although both continued to reflect growing levels of activity. Business confidence has eased but remains very high indicating that the shock could be short term. The Prices Charged Index has shown ‘no change’ on the November level of the price of goods and services as companies adopt a wait and see approach. There has also been a slowdown in the rate of new hiring’s.

Overall, the Indian economy remains in very good shape. The negative effects of Prime Minister Mondi’s cash policy could be short lived with higher longer term growth and lower corruption levels resulting.

Headline Sales Managers' Index

Market Growth Index
Sales Growth Index

Prices Charged Index

About India SMI Data

The Sales Managers Index provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of Indian economic activity.

Key advantages of the India SMI:
  • The SMI provides the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth in India.
  • The SMI provides the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI is based on a key occupational group - uniquely able to sense changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI is composite index of business confidence, market growth, sales, prices charged and staffing levels.
  • The SMI is a diffusion index, any index value above 50 indicates growth and below 50 indicates contraction.

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