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The Sales Managers' Index: India

Released: January 27, 2015

SMI signals quickest pace on record in January

  • Business Confidence falls but remains very high
  • Sales and Market Growth continue to rise rapidly
  • Prices Charged Index accelerates for the first time in 8 months

The World Economics India Sales Managers’ Index (SMI), a composite indicator, provides the most up-to-date monthly assessment of economic activity in the country.


Overview
The Headline Index (derived from an average of the Business Confidence, Market Growth, Sales, Prices and Staffing Indexes) signalled the quickest pace since the panel began in March 2012 in January. The Index increased to 68.0, from 67.7 in December, indicating only a marginal improvement in economic activity, and that the Indian economy continued to grow rapidly.


Business Confidence
The Business Confidence Index fell for the second month in a row in January. The index stood at 91.4, down from 93.6 in December, the sharpest deceleration since January 2014. Nevertheless, the current Index’ reading of 91.4 showed that surveyed managers remained exceptionally optimistic about the outlook for business.


Market Growth
The Market Growth Index improved for the first time since last September in January. The Index came in at 63.6, up from 63.1 in December, indicating a marginal acceleration, and the fastest pace in four month, when the Index also stood at 63.6. The majority of surveyed managers reported strong levels of market growth.


Product Sales
The Product Sales Index fell in line with the Business Confidence Index, with demand decelerating slightly to 72.9 in January, from 73.5 in December. However, latest data showed that sales continued to increase at a fast pace as global commodity prices continued to decline. That said, this marked the first time the Index has slowed since August 2014.


Prices Charged
The Prices Charged Index registered 51.6 in January, up from 49.6 in December, and now stands above the 50 (no-change) mark that separates growth from contraction. This marked the first time that the Index has accelerated since June 2014, and indicated that surveyed companies were passing on increases in prices to businesses and consumers at a faster rate compared to the past seven months.


Staffing Levels
The Staffing Index continued to climb in January to reach the highest level since June last year. The Index rose to 60.4, up from 58.8 in December, the sharpest increase in three months of consecutive rises. This indicated that the Sales Managers continued to increase their payroll numbers at a strong pace.


World Economics Chief Executive Ed Jones commented:
“January’s SMI data signalled the fastest pace since the panel began in 2012, and indicated that the Indian economy continued to grow at a steady pace.

The overall rate of acceleration, although only marginal, can be mostly attributed to a sharp increase in the Prices Charged Index, due to a recent rise in government taxes on petrol and diesel products.”







 













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Amelia Myles, Communications Manager
T: +44 (0) 20 7326 8352
F: +44 (0) 20 7326 8351 
E: Amelia.Myles@worldeconomics.com



Methodology
The Sales Managers’ Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity. 



About the Sales Managers’ Indexes
The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a series of new products available for Africa, Asia and the Americas, designed to raise the voice and profile of sales people throughout the world. The Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing 

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being really at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery.  

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Chinese economy 

The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data. Sister products include the World Economics Journal, the World Price Index, the Global Marketing Index, as well as the China, India and Eurozone Growth Monitors.



About World Economics
World Economics is an organisation dedicated to producing analysis, insight and data relating to questions of importance in understanding the world economy.

Currently our primary research objective is to encourage and assist the development of better and faster measures of economic activity. In cases where we believe we can contribute directly, as opposed to through highlighting the work of others, we are producing our own measures of economic activity.  

Our work is mainly of interest to investors, organisations and individuals in the financial sector and to significant corporations with global operations, as well as governments and academic economists.

 
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There are 12 comments on this paper.
(Have an opinion? Add your Comment above)

Bikram
19 days ago
Great information

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Can I get information about productivity in dairy business

Satinder pal singh sawhney
65 days ago
Thanx

Peke
867 days ago
Good to see real expertise on display. Your contributoin is most welcome.

aruna nishanka
1004 days ago
This is a nice initiative from you, thank you




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