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The Sales Managers Index: United States

Released: November 17, 2015

Slowdown in US economic activity continues in November

  • Business Confidence at lowest for two years
  • Monthly sales indicate falling Q4 GDP growth
  • Inflationary pressures are abating

The Sales Managers Headline Index in November registered a value of 54.3, down on its value in October and the fourth consecutive monthly fall. The SMI is the first monthly indicator to gauge the speed and direction of economic growth across all private sectors of the US economy. The November data indicates that the US economy is still growing, but that the rate of expansion reached a peak in mid-summer and has been falling since. The advance estimate for GDP growth in Q3 released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29 came in at 1.5% following annual growth of 3.9% in Q2. On the basis of SMI sales data Q4 is expected to show a rate of GDP growth of around 1.0%.

Sector analysis shows that the Manufacturing SMI registered 54.4 in November while the Services SMI registered 54.5, both down on the previous month. The rate of growth in these sectors has been falling for four successive months indicating that the US economy is experiencing a balanced reduction in its expansion. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the economic activity is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

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