World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

The Sales Managers' Index: United States

Released: September 16, 2014

Business Confidence continues steady fall in September

  • US Manufacturing SMI at 58.8, Services fall to 60.6
  • Markets and Company Sales growth ease back
  • No inflationary pressures evident

The Sales Managers’ Index is the first all sector monthly economic activity index release covering the US economy.

The overall Sales Managers’ Headline Index (calculated from an average of the Confidence, Growth, Price and Staffing Indexes) registered a value of 59.8 in September, down by 1.0 from its value in August.

Sector Analysis
Splitting the sample of panellists on a sector basis into Manufacturing and Services showed similar levels of strong growth in both parts of the US economy.

The US Manufacturing Headline SMI for September stood at 58.8, down by 2.3 from August, with the US Services SMI falling slightly by 0.6 to 60.6. The main difference between the sectors was a larger fall in manufacturing based monthly product sales

Business Confidence
The Business Confidence Index fell by 1.9 to register a value of 66.9 in September. This is the fourth successive monthly fall in the value of the Index.

Confidence levels are still at a high level in the US among panellists despite these consecutive falls in the value of the Index.

Market Growth
The Market Growth Index reflects growth of the general marketplace in panellists’ own industry sectors.

The Market Growth Index for the month registered a value of 61.8 in September, down by 0.5 on the previous month. Panellists continue to report seeing strong growth in the markets they operate in which has been continuing for some months despite the recent drop.

Product Sales
The Product Sales Index represents sales made by panellists’ own companies. The September Index registered a value of 59.2, down by 1.2 on August. Panellists are seeing a slight decline in the rate of growth of both own companies’ sales as well as market growth.

Prices Charged
The Prices Charged Index fell by 0.9 to register a value of 55.5 in September after a small rise in August. The Index has fallen to below the level it reached in June. Prices are rising, but at a steady rate with no evidence of persistent inflationary pressures.

Staffing Levels
The Staffing Index reflects the number of staff taken on compared to the same period in the last year.

The Index value of 55.7 in September is down by 0.4 on August and back to the level seen in June. Panellists reported that payrolls are still rising at a steady rate, but that monthly changes are showing no overall trend increase and are probably due to seasonal fluctuations.

World Economics Chief Executive Ed Jones commented:

"Economic activity in the US in September, as measured by the SMI Headline Index, has fallen back to the still respectable growth rate seen since the start of the year. The acceleration in activity witnessed from the start of Q2 2014 has eased back. Business Confidence continues to fall at a gentle rate reflecting the US economy’s reversion to a slower, but stable rate of growth with no evidence of rising inflation."


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Notes to Editors
The Sales Managers’ Index is produced by World Economics and is based on original survey data collected from a panel of Sales managers in all sectors of the US economy except those controlled by the Government.

The Sales Managers’ Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity. 

About the Sales Managers’ Index
The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a set of unique economic activity reports covering a wide range of sectors and industries (except those controlled by Government) in over 70 countries worldwide. The Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing. 

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being really at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery. 

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the economy. 

The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data. Sister products include the World Economics Journal, the World Price Index, the Global Marketing Index, and Country Growth Trackers.

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653 days ago
Style now is very good, the information if continuously updated. Thank you

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