World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data


The Sales Managers' Index: United States

Released: October 21, 2014

Payrolls expand in October amid uncertain markets

  • US Manufacturing SMI falls to 58.6, Services to 60.1
  • Overall Business Confidence falls
  • Market Growth and Company Sales decline

Overview
The Sales Managers’ The Sales Managers’ Index is the first all sector monthly economic activity index release covering the US economy.

The overall Sales Managers’ Headline Index (calculated from an average of the Confidence, Growth, Price and Staffing Indexes) registered a value of 59.3 in October, down by 0.5 from its value in September.


Sector Analysis
Splitting the sample of panellists on a sector basis into Manufacturing and Services showed similar levels of strong growth in both parts of the US economy.

Both the US Services and the US Manufacturing Headline SMI Indexes fell in October by 0.5 and by 0.2 respectively on their values in September to 60.1 and 58.6. The main distinguishing factor in panellists’ responses between the two parts of the US economy was that Manufacturing Business Confidence rose by 1.0 while it fell by 1.5 in the Services Sector.


Business Confidence
The Business Confidence Index fell by 0.9 to register a value of 66.0 in October. This is the fifth successive monthly fall in the value of the Index.

While confidence levels remain high among US panellists the continuing falls in the value of this Index and the differences between the sectors underlines the growing uncertainty about the future prospects for the economy which has begun to impact on financial markets.


Market Growth
The Market Growth Index reflects growth of the general marketplace in panellists’ own industry sectors.

The Market Growth Index for the month registered a value of 61.5 in October, down by 0.3 on the previous month. This is the second consecutive month that this Index has fallen marginally, but generally panellists are still reporting strong growth rates in the markets they operate in.


Product Sales
The Product Sales Index represents sales made by panellists’ own companies. In October this Index registered a value of 57.8, down by 1.4 on its value in September. Panellists have been reporting successive falls in the rate of growth of their own companies’ sales since June of this year.


Prices Charged
The Prices Charged Index fell by 0.9 in October to register a value of 54.6, the second consecutive monthly fall. Panellists are reporting rising prices, but the rate of increase is steadily declining.


Staffing Levels
The Staffing Index reflects the number of staff taken on compared to the same period in the last year.

The Index value of 56.5 in October is up by 0.7 on the previous month. This is the only economic indicator displaying a positive change this month with panellists reporting that the rate of growth in staffing levels accelerated slightly.


Summary
World Economics Chief Executive Ed Jones commented on the release:

“Economic activity in the US in October is still rising but at a slowing rate as measured by the SMI Headline Index for both Manufacturing and Services. Business Confidence continued its falling trend in Services while it increased in Manufacturing. All the constituents of the Headline Index for the entire economy dropped apart from Staffing Levels. Inflationary pressures continue to ease back across the economy.”






 
















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Notes to Editors
The Sales Managers’ Index is produced by World Economics and is based on original survey data collected from a panel of Sales managers in all sectors of the US economy except those controlled by the Government.
 


Methodology
The Sales Managers’ Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity. 



About the Sales Managers’ Indexes
The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a series of new products available for Africa, Asia and the Americas, designed to raise the voice and profile of sales people throughout the world. The Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing.  

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being really at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery. 

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Chinese economy.  

TThe Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data. Sister products include the World Economics Journal, the World Price Index, the Global Marketing Index, as well as the China, India and Eurozone Growth Monitors.


About World Economics
World Economics is an organisation dedicated to producing analysis, insight and data relating to questions of importance in understanding the world economy.

Currently our primary research objective is to encourage and assist the development of better and faster measures of economic activity. In cases where we believe we can contribute directly, as opposed to through highlighting the work of others, we are producing our own measures of economic activity.

Our work is mainly of interest to investors, organisations and individuals in the financial sector and to significant corporations with global operations, as well as governments and academic economists.


 
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guesh
675 days ago
Style now is very good, the information if continuously updated. Thank you




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