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The Sales Managers Index: United States

Released: July 19, 2016

U.S. Business Confidence Plummets in July

  • Unpredictable political climate adding to uncertainty about economic growth
  • Jobs growth stays at depressed levels
  • July Sales Managers’ Index at lowest level in over 4 years

At over halfway through the year, the U.S. economy is continuing to exhibit low levels of economic growth. The 3rd quarter has kicked off with the same disappointing levels reported in quarter 1 and quarter 2. The Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) which measures the overall state of the economy showed a modest improvement in April and May but this has continued to dissipate with the July SMI reaching the lowest level in over 4 years. Falling business confidence levels have been attributed, by panel members, to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential elections and the recent attacks in Florida and Texas which are fuelling negative sentiment. There appears to be little good news from the data and the outlook for the second half of the year is further stagnation.

Headline Sales Managers' Index

Sales Managers' Index Trends
  Direction Speed
SMI Growing Very slowly
Business Confidence Falling Slowly
Market Growth Growing Modestly
Sales Output Growing Modestly
Prices Charged Growing Very slowly
Staffing Levels Falling Declining

The Sales Managers Index provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of U.S economic activity.

Key advantages of theUnited States SMI:
  • The SMI provides the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth in the U.S.
  • The SMI provides the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI is based on a key occupational group - uniquely able to sense changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI is composite index of business confidence, market growth, sales, prices charged and staffing levels.
  • The SMI is a diffusion index, any index value above 50 indicates growth and below 50 indicates contraction.

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