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World Economics - Measuring Global Economic Activity

The Sales Managers' Index: United States

Released: August 19, 2014

Economic activity continues to rise at a steady rate in August

  • US Manufacturing SMI at 61.1, Services stable at 61.2
  • All-Sector Business Confidence remains high
  • Payrolls rise at steady rate

The Sales Managers’ Index is the first all sector monthly economic activity index release covering the US economy.

The overall Sales Managers’ Headline Index (calculated from an average of the Confidence, Growth, Price and Staffing Indexes) registered a value of 60.8 in August, unchanged from its value in July.

Sector Analysis
Splitting the sample of panellists on a sector basis into Manufacturing and Services showed similar levels of strong growth in both parts of the US economy.

The US Manufacturing Headline SMI for August stood at 61.1, up by 0.1 from July, with the US Services SMI remaining unchanged at 61.2. The main difference between the sectors was a larger fall in manufacturing based Business Confidence.

Business Confidence
The Business Confidence Index fell by 1.6 to register a value of 68.8 in August. This is the third successive monthly fall in the value of the Index.

Despite the consecutive falls confidence is still at a high level as most panellists expect that business conditions will continue improve in the coming months.

Market Growth
The Market Growth Index reflects growth of the general marketplace in panellists’ own industry sectors.

Panellists have explained that they are experiencing strong growth in August at around the same level seen in July. The Market Growth Index for the month registered a value of 62.3, up by 0.1 on the previous month.

Product Sales
The Product Sales Index represents sales made by panellists’ own companies. The August Index registered a value of 60.4, unchanged on July. This indicates that the panellists are seeing their own companies’ sales rising at a rate closely in line with the growth in overall markets.

Prices Charged
The Prices Charged Index rose by 0.4 to register a value of 56.4 in August. Prices are rising, but there is no evidence of any acceleration with monthly changes fluctuating around the monthly average Index level of 56.2 since the start of the year.

Staffing Levels
The Staffing Index reflects the number of staff taken on compared to the same period in the last year.

The Index value of 56.1 in August is up by 1.2 on its July level. Panellists reported that payrolls are rising and have being doing so since the start of Q2 2014 at a mildly rising rate.

World Economics Chief Executive Ed Jones commented:

"Economic activity in the US in August has mirrored the strong growth seen in July. Market and sales growth are rising in tandem and companies continue to take on new staff at a steadily rising rate of growth. Business Confidence in the US has dipped slightly, but it still at a very high level indicating that panellists see strong business activity for several months ahead. Prices have been rising at a constant rate for most of the year.”


For further information media & press enquires please contact:  

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Notes to Editors
The Sales Managers’ Index is produced by World Economics and is based on original survey data collected from a panel of Sales managers in all sectors of the US economy except those controlled by the Government.

The Sales Managers’ Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity. 

About the Sales Managers’ Index
The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a set of unique economic activity reports covering a wide range of sectors and industries (except those controlled by Government) in over 70 countries worldwide. The Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing. 

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being really at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery. 

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in the economy. 

The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data. Sister products include the World Economics Journal, the World Price Index, the Global Marketing Index, and Country Growth Trackers.

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623 days ago
Style now is very good, the information if continuously updated. Thank you

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