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Commonwealth Growth Tracker
The Commonwealth overtakes Eurozone share of world output
James Waterson - January 2013
Real GDP Growth 1973 – 2011
Economic growth in the Commonwealth has accelerated over the post 1973 period in sharp contrast to the EU, where the growth rate has been falling gently from 5% or more in the late 1970’s to only 1-2% in recent years.
Looking at the EU, and Eurozone, and Commonwealth from a market share of world GDP viewpoint, a similar pattern is evident. Charts 3 and 4 show the EU and Eurozone compared with Commonwealth share of world real GDP.
Commonwealth and Europe share of world real GDP (PPP, Trillion $) 1973 - 2011
Future economic growth
The IMF produces forecasts for economic growth for the EZ and the Commonwealth for the next 5 years. Given the current crisis in the EZ the 2.7% annual average growth forecast might be thought optimistic. But optimistic or not it pales into insignificance compared with the continued growth expected in the emerging markets of the Commonwealth.
GDP Growth Forecasts (Real terms, average annual growth)
Source: IMF, World Economics
Future population growth
Finally, Chart 5 shows population projections for the EZ compared with the Commonwealth for the next 40 years. As can be seen, population growth in the Commonwealth alone is expected to be over twice as big as the entire static EZ population by 2050.
The Eurozone is defined as full members in 2012: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, and Estonia.
The EU is defined as full members of the EU in 1973: Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Ireland, Denmark, Luxembourg, West Germany and France (UK omitted).
New members who have joined & left the Commonwealth since 1973 account for less than 1% of its total GDP. In both charts the EU/EZ start with a much larger share, but this advantage is shown to have steadily diminished over time, actually reversing in the original EU area, and clearly about to reverse using the Eurozone definition.
Note: GDP calculations are based on real PPP GDP data from Penn, World Bank and the IMF. For more information please consult the World Economics Global Growth Monitor.
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The Commonwealth Growth Monitor: Note to Users
Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.
Please note that GDP growth estimates are subject to change & World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.
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338 days ago
Thank you Charles for your note, we have updated the charts and revised the definitions.
340 days ago
Please correct the definitions and titles for charts 3 & 4. Chart 4 appears to show EU v Commonwealth and Chart 3 appears to show EZ v Commonwealth. In the definitions for charts 3 & 4, Germany is missing from the list of EU members.
Copyright Economic & Financial Publishing 2013