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Eurozone Growth Tracker

Dariana Tani - May 2015

Speed Read
  • GDP rose by 0.9% in the euro area in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to 0.8% in the previous quarter.
  • Leading indicators signalled a slight increase in economic activity, with the OECD CLI up to 100.7 in February.
  • Retail sales registered a year-on-year increase of 1.5% in March, compared to 1.2% in the same period last year.
  • The jobless rate was at 11.3% in March, stable compared to February 2015, but down from 11.7% in March 2014.


GDP Growth

Annual Real GDP 1961 – 2014: 50 Years of Declining Growth


Quarterly Real GDP Growth Q1 2008- Q1 2015 







Leading & Composite Indicators

OECD Composite Leading Indicator
The OECD composite leading indicator® (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity”. Its components include Production Orders, Finished Goods Stock, Order Books, Order Inflows, Industrial Confidence Indicator, Share Prices, Consumer Confidence Indicator, Short & Long Term Interest Rate and Share Price Spread.  




The Conference Board Leading Economic Index
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area include: Economic Sentiment Index, Index of Residential Building Permits Granted, Index of Capital Goods New Orders, EURO STOXX® Index, Money Supply (M2), Interest Rate Spread, Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, and Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index.  



 
Consumer Indexes

IPSOS Consumer Confidence
The IPSOS Global @dvisor: ‘On the Economic Pulse of the World’ uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide (with a minimum of 1000 in each country) and a demographic weighting system to produce an accurate perception of consumers’ perspectives.  


Eurostat Consumer Confidence Indicator

The consumer component of the Economic Sentiment Indicator measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the performance of the economy. 




Consumer Demand

Real Retail Sales
Turnover for retail trade in the Eurozone is compiled as an index with a current base year of 2005.



New Car Registrations




Business Indexes

Eurostat Economic Sentiment Indicator
The Economic Sentiment Indicator is made up of the 15 individual components of the Eurostat confidence indicators. The largest components are Industry, Services, Consumers, Construction and Retail trade. 




Employment Indexes
The unemployment rate is represented as the number of unemployed persons in thousands.




Industrial Production Index



 
The Eurozone Growth Tracker: Note to Users

 
Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.
 
World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.
See http://www.worldeconomics.com/EurozoneGrowthTracker for updates.


Sources

Long term GDP, Penn Data Tables & IMF

http://pwt.econ. upenn.edu/php_site/pwt70/pwt70_form.php
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx
Short term GDP, Eurostat

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/national_accounts/data/database
OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=10

IPSOS Consumer Confidence

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14451

Eurostat Consumer Confidence Indicator

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/2015/fcci_2015_02_en.pdf

Real Retail Sales

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=sts_trtugr_m&lang=en

Monthly Car Sales, European Society of Automobile Manufacturers

http://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/passenger-car-registrations-5.7-over-twelve-months-4.7-in-december

Eurostat Economic Sentiment Indicator

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/2015/esi_2015_04_en.pdf

Employment Indexes

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6807651/3-30042015-AP-EN.pdf/c619bed7-7d9d-4992-95c3-f84e91bfcc1d

Industrial Production Index
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=teiis080


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