World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

United States Growth Tracker

Dariana Tani - September 2014

The United States Growth Tracker is a monthly publication designed to provide a graphical snapshot of the very latest US economic data.

Speed Read
  • U.S. real GDP increased at a annual rate of 4.2% in Q2 2014 compared to -2.1 in Q1.
  • Composite indexes showed continue growth in economic activity, with the LEI rising by 0.9% in July
  • The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index for the U.S. rose by 0.4 in the second quarter.
  • Payroll data show 142,000 jobs were added to the economy in August.



GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth 1961 -2013
Since 1961, annual American real GDP growth has been following a falling trend year-on-year.



Year-on-year Quarterly Real GDP Growth Q1 2008 - Q2 2014 ($billion, 2009 chained)




Leading & Composite Indicators

OECD Composite Leading Indicator
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator® (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity”. The components include: Dwellings started (number), Net new orders for durable goods, share prices: NYSE composite, consumer sentiment indicator, weekly hours of work: manufacturing, purchasing managers index, and the spread of interest rates.




Conference Board Leading Economic Index

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours, manufacturing, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; new orders, consumer goods; Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods , Building permits, new private housing units; Stock prices; Leading Credit Index Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds; Average consumer expectations.




World Economics Sales Managers’ Index

The World Economics Sales Managers’ Index provides the earliest data each month covering all US private sector economic activity.



Consumer Indexes


IPSOS Global @dvisory Survey
Ipsos uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide to measure consumer perspectives on the present state of the economy as well as a 6 month outlook.



Nielsen Quarterly Consumer Confidence Survey
The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, established in 2005, tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 consumers in 56 countries.



Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) is a “barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer”.



Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, established in 1946, tracks consumer attitudes towards the present and future through a survey of 500 randomly selected individuals across the United states.



Consumer Demand

Retail Sales




Car Sales



Employment

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment is an indicator of private sector employment. It measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding employees of government, private households, non-profit organisations and farms.



Industrial Indexes


Business Surveys

ISM Business Surveys



Industrial Production


Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index


Power

Total consumption is calculated through retail sales of electricity to residential, industrial and commercial customers.





The United States Growth Monitor: Note to Users

 

Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.

 

Sources

 

Long term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm

Short term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm

OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=6617

Conference Board LEI, Conference Board

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

World Economics Sales Managers’ Index, World Economics
http://www.worldeconomics.com/SMI/SalesManagersIndex.efp

IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=13861

Nielsen Consumer Confidence, Nielsen

http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/nielsenglobal/ph/docs/reports/2014/Nielsen%20Global%20Consumer%20Confidence%20Report%20-%20Q2%202014.pdf

Conference Board Consumer Perception, Conference Board

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

http://thomsonreuters.com/press-releases/pdf/favorable-job-wage-growth.pdf



Retail, US Bureau of Census

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/download/text/adv44y72.txt

Car Sales, Motor Intelligence

http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

ISM Business Surveys, ISM

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=13338&navItemNumber=12964

Industrial Production, Federal Reserve
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/ipdisk/ip_nsa.txt

Electricity Consumption, US Energy Information Administration

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_1

Electricity Generation, US Energy Information Administration

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_1_1

 

 



 
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