World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

United States Growth Tracker

Dariana Tani - April 2014

The United States Growth Tracker is a bi-monthly publication designed to provide a graphical snapshot of the very latest US data.

Speed Read
  • Latest figures show real GDP grew 2.6% in Q4 2013 compared with Q4 2012
  • Leading indicators suggest growth trends are continuing into Q1 2014
  • Consumer confidence remains low but is climbing slowly
  • Private sector employment continues to increase

1. GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth 1960 -2013
Since 1960, annual American real GDP growth has been following a falling trend year-on-year.

Year-on-year Quarterly Real GDP Growth Q1 2008 – Q2 2013 ($billion, 2009 chained)


2. Leading & Composite Indicators

OECD Composite Leading Indicator
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator® (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity”. The components include: Dwellings started (number), Net new orders for durable goods, share prices: NYSE composite, consumer sentiment indicator, weekly hours of work: manufacturing, purchasing managers index, and the spread of interest rates.



Conference Board Leading Economic Index

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours, manufacturing, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; new orders, consumer goods; Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods , Building permits, new private housing units; Stock prices; Leading Credit Index Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds; Average consumer expectations.


World Economics Sales Managers’ Index

The World Economics Sales Managers’ Index provides the earliest data each month covering all US private sector economic activity.


3. Consumer Indexes


IPSOS Global @dvisory Survey
Ipsos uses a monthly sample of over 18,000 adults worldwide to measure consumer perspectives on the present state of the economy as well as a 6 month outlook.


Nielsen Quarterly Consumer Confidence Survey
The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, established in 2005, tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 consumers in 56 countries.


Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) is a “barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer”.


Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, established in 1946, tracks consumer attitudes towards the present and future through a survey of 500 randomly selected individuals across the United states.


Retail Sales



Car Sales

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment is an indicator of private sector employment. It measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding employees of government, private households, non-profit organisations and farms.


4. Industrial Indexes


A. Business Surveys

ISM Business Surveys


B. Industrial Production

Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index


C. Power

Total consumption is calculated through retail sales of electricity to residential, industrial and commercial customers.

Consumption


Generation



The United States Growth Monitor: Note to Users

 

Use of these data should be made in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these data.

World Economics will update the monitor on a regular basis as further data becomes available.

 

 

Sources

 

Long term GDP, Penn Data Tables

 

Short term GDP, National Bureau of Statistics

 

OECD CLI, OECD

http://www.oecd.org/document/51/0,3746,en_2649_34349_49381363_1_1_1_1,00.html

 

Conference Board LEI, Conference Board

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

 

The Coincident Economic Activity Index, Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

 

Conference Board Consumer Perception, Conference Board

 

ISM Business Surveys, ISM

 

World Economics Sales Managers’ Index, World Economics

 

Retail & Car Sales, US Bureau of Census

 

Industrial Production, Federal Reserve

 

Electricity Generation, US Energy Information Administration

 

Total Gasoline Sales, FHWA

 

Motor Vehicle Travel, US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration

 

Real Consumer Loans, Federal Reserve

 

IPSOS Consumer Assessment, IPSOS

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11216

 

Nielsen Consumer Confidence, Nielsen

http://www.nielsen.com/content/corporate/global/en.html


World Bank

http://data.worldbank.org/




 
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