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Data Papers on Economic indicators and forecasting



Building a New Testable Model to Estimate Total Factor Productivity Building a New Testable Model to Estimate Total Factor Productivity
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, June 2017
A new model to measure Total Factor Productivity free from the flaws which exist in previous models; appropriate data are used to test it. The model distinguishes between the contributions made to investment and growth by changes in technology and other non-technology v ... More


Data on Indicators of Governance: Handle with Care Data on Indicators of Governance: Handle with Care
M.G.Quibria, World Economics, June 2016
This article provides a select review of data used as indicators of governance. Despite the popularity and considerable success of the existing body of governance indicators in putting the spotlight on governance inadequacies in developing countries, they are fraught ... More


How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030 How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030: And what about the US?
Jorgen Randers, World Economics, June 2016
Historical data for the last fifty years shows that there is a surprisingly strong correlation between the growth rate of a nation’s GDP per person and its income level. The growth rate declines linearly with income, and this relationship can be used to estimate the fut ... More


Deflation? What Deflation? Statistical Origins of Japan’s Declining Price Levels Deflation? What Deflation? Statistical Origins of Japan’s Declining Price Levels
Masanaga Kumakura, World Economics, June 2015
Although Japan’s CPI is often criticized for potential upward bias, it deals with improvements in the quality of individual goods in ways that make the statistical inflation rate much lower than actual price changes. Moreover, the quantitative importance of this effect ... More


Industrial Rebalancing is Already Here, But Can it Continue? Industrial Rebalancing is Already Here, But Can it Continue?
Nate Taplin, World Economics, June 2013
In mid-2012, as China’s economy decelerated, growth in electricity production – traditionally a good proxy for the health of industry – diverged strongly on the downside from official measures of industrial value added. While many analysts interpreted this incongruence ... More


Currency Valuation and Purchasing Power Parity Currency Valuation and Purchasing Power Parity
Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, World Economics, September 2011
This paper aims to highlight key limitations of The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index (BMI). The Economist markets the BMI as a tool to determine valuation of currencies. This paper shows that the BMI is a misleading measure of currency valuation for econ ... More


Clearing the Fog Clearing the Fog: How useful are short-term economic indicators?
Simon Hayes & James Ashley, World Economics, June 2010
Official statistical agencies produce a number of data series that are more timely and of higher frequency than the published estimates of GDP growth. There are also numerous private-sector measures and surveys that provide a running commentary on economic developments. ... More


Economic Forecasts Economic Forecasts: Too smooth by far?
Prakash Loungani & Jair Rodriguez, World Economics, June 2008
Will the US and other economies slip into recessions this year? Which economies will decouple from a global slowdown? The authors suggest that the excessive caution shown by private sector forecasters limits the usefulness of their forecasts in answering these questions ... More


"There Will Be Growth in the Spring" "There Will Be Growth in the Spring": How credible are forecasts of recovery?
Prakash Loungani, World Economics, March 2002
Forecasters are currently echoing Chauncey Gardner’s words that “There will be growth in the spring”. Or certainly by the summer. Are such forecasts credible? Yes. This article presents evidence that private sector forecasters have done a reasonably good job of forec ... More


How Clear is the Crystal Ball? How Clear is the Crystal Ball?: Reflections on the accuracy of growth forecasts
Prakash Loungani, World Economics, March 2001
Two salie nt features of growth forecasts are discussed. First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Slowdowns are predicted but forecasters are unable or unwilling to call recessions. Second, private sector forecasts tend to be similar to those of official ... More


Demographic Risk in Industrial Societies Demographic Risk in Industrial Societies: Independent population forecasts for the G-7 countries
Sylvester J. Schieber & Paul S. Hewitt, World Economics, December 2000
There is a growing awareness of the aging of populations around the world and the implications for national retirement programs. In most cases, estimates of population aging are based on fixed assumptions about fertility, improvements in life expectancy, and immigratio ... More