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Thought of the Day
Union with Britain has been an economic calamity for Northern Ireland
19 March 2024
Once upon a time about a century ago, Belfast was bigger than Dublin, and industrial Northern Ireland was much wealthier than the poor agricultural South. Today the roles are reversed.
Northern Ireland remains to a considerable extent dependant on handouts from London and is much poorer than prosperous Ireland. Dublin is now three times the size of Belfast and looks (unlike Belfast) like a thriving European city. Union with Britain doesn’t seem to have worked so well for Northern Island.
UK and Irish GDP per Capita growth over the past 25 years
Index: 1998 = 100
One reason often cited for the dramatic change is the attraction of the Irish low tax regime for major US multinationals. However the UK itself is often associated with tax haven status (the Channel Islands and British Virgin Islands spring to mind, not to mention the "
London Laundromat
". In recent years - since 2016 - the considerable divergence in GDP per capita growth (in favour of Ireland) is more likely explained by the Brexit vote of that year, with Ireland now a more favoured route into the EU than the more isolated United Kingdom.
David McWilliams, a notable Irish economist, wrote recently: “
the truth is the union with Britain has been an economic calamity for Northern Island
". Looking at GDP and GDP per capita data, this summary is not easy to refute...
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Asia-Pacific Dominates the World Economy in Size and Growth
Asia- Pacific GDP is over twice that of the Americas, 4 times that of Europe and 10 times Africa. The largest Asian countries by GDP size all have reasonable Data Quality Ratings (Grades A-C), and data are likely to be believable, but all pan-region GDP data includes data of varying quality, so it is advised to review individual country data for a more detailed perspective. Asia-Pac...
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When China Rules the World
Chinese GDP will be more than double that of the US in just over a decade, if recent growth rates persist. Economic activity in China is almost certainly already over 38% larger than in the USA. Few investment portfolios, business plans or government calculations reflect the large and growing dominance of Chinese economic activity, mostly because of the inappropriate use of market p...
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Places for Investors to Avoid
Country Governance is crucial for investors, as BP found recently, taking a $24bn charge in its accounts, after deciding to abandon its 19.75% stake in Rosneft, the Russian oil and gas giant. Many other companies and investors have lost heavily in recent years by allowing short term profit to outweigh the risk of dealing with countries with poor Governance. It's all too easy to ign...
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