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Title: The Future of North Korea is South Korea: (Or hope springs eternal)
Author: Marcus Noland
Published: September 2007
Pages: 27-52
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North Korea's famine was in significant part a product of state failure, and unleashed an unintended grassroots process of marketization. Reforms undertaken in 2002 are more usefully interpreted as a response to this development than as a pro-active attempt to improve efficiency, and the government’s stance remains ambivalent. The economy is progressively more integrated with those of China and South Korea, but the modalities differ: involvement with China increasingly occurs on market-conforming terms, while interaction with South Korea has a growing official transfer or subsidy element. Recent floods will contribute to a political context for enhanced South Korean government support.


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