Updated: September 19, 2017

September Data Bring Further Evidence of a Sharp Post GST Recovery in the Indian Economy
  • Business confidence leaps back to higher ground
  • Big jump from 55.8 to 65.6 in the Indian Sales Index
  • Corporate Earnings and Staffing Levels Indexes both climb strongly

Following the recent twin shocks of demonetization in December and the introduction of the Government Sales Tax (GST) in July, the Indian economy is clearly bouncing back to high growth levels. The SMI Business Confidence, Sales Growth and Staffing Levels indexes all plunged below their previously high levels, particularly after the introduction of the GST, as the introduction of the Government policies took effect. However the very latest mid-September data from the Indian Sales Manager Indexes shows that strong recovery is now underway. The Indian economy has demonstrated very considerable resilience, bouncing back sharply from initial impact of the twin shocks of the Government policies. Business Confidence, Sales and Market Growth and Job Market Indexes all rose strongly in September, whilst the Prices Charged Index continued to pull back from the high levels of price inflation induced by the policy changes. All-in-all a very satisfactory month of rapid economic recovery and moderating price inflation. 

Sales Managers' Index (SMI)

The Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) – a composite indicator designed to provide the most up-to-date assessment of business activity.

Business Confidence Index

The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism amongst sales for future conditions.

Market Growth Index

The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.

Sales Growth Index

The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services made by business during the month.

Prices Charged Index

The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.

Staffing Levels Index

The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.

About India SMI Data

The Sales Managers Index provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity.

Key advantages of the India SMI:
  • The SMI provides the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth in India.
  • The SMI provides the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI is based on a key occupational group - uniquely able to sense changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI is composite index of business confidence, market growth, sales, prices charged and staffing levels.
  • The SMI is a diffusion index, any index value above 50 indicates growth and below 50 indicates contraction.