Released: 21 March 2019
Growth Continues In March but Jobs Market and Profit Margins Indexes Suggest Significant Caution
- Business Confidence remains very high
- Sales Managers report continuing high levels of growth
- But the Jobs Growth Index suggests employers have become to be very cautious on recruitment
Growth in the US economy remains steady at an above average rate. The Market Growth and Sales Growth Indexes continue to reflect an economic machine still operating at high capacity.
But the data deriving from Sales Managers shows the level of job recruitment activity has fallen sharply from the levels seen a few months ago.
On top of the fall in recruitment activity, the March data shows almost no growth in the Profit Margins Index continuing the decreasing growth rate seen since October last year.
Given the strength of the growth numbers it is tempting to regard the Profit and Job Index movements as perhaps reflecting temporary factors relating to the Government shutdown. Alternatively, given the well-established sensitivity of sales managers to changing economic conditions, the numbers may presage a more serious change in economic conditions. The lack of growth in the Profit Margins Index in particular may suggest that the profit increase that followed last year’s tax cuts may prove temporary.
United States: Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI)
The Headline Sales Managers' Index (SMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide the most up-to-date assessment of business activity.
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- HEADLINE SALES MANAGERS’ INDEX (SMI)
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- MARKET GROWTH INDEX
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- PROFIT MARGINS INDEX
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