Released: 23 January 2019
Growth Continues But Business Confidence and Job Market
Indexes Fall Sharply in January
- Sales Managers report continuing high levels of growth
- But Business Confidence plummets to lowest level since October 2016
- And the Jobs Growth Index falls back sharply for the second successive month
Growth in the US economy remains steady at an above average rate. The Market Growth and Sales Growth Indexes continue to reflect an economic machine still operating at high capacity.
But the data deriving from Sales Managers shows a major fall in Business Confidence in January, following a similar fall in December. These two falls taken together reflect the sharpest cut in Confidence seen since the Sales Indexes started some 7 years ago.
On top of the fall in Confidence, the January data shows a similar second monthly fall in the Hiring Index, again one of the most dramatic changes seen in the Job Index since its inception over 7 years ago.
Given the strength of the growth numbers it is tempting to regard the Confidence and Job Index movements as perhaps reflecting temporary factors relating to the Government shutdown. Alternatively, given the well-established sensitivity of sales managers to changing economic conditions, the numbers may presage a more serious change in economic conditions.
United States: Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI)
The Headline Sales Managers' Index (SMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide the most up-to-date assessment of business activity.
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