Released: 18 September 2018

September Sales Data Shows US Economy on 38 Month High,
but Inflation Rising Fast

  • Headline SMI for September grows to 59.5 signalling continued strong growth
  • Prices rising dangerously rapidly
  • Business Confidence still rising fast

The Headline Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) increased in September, recording an index level of 59.5, the highest level for 38 months and representative of the continuing economic growth. Strong sales growth in September is indicated by the Sales Growth Index (59.0) along with buoyant levels of business confidence. Prices for goods and services continue to increase in the U.S. with the level of the Prices Charged Index at a high level. The recent price rises have been more evident in the Manufacturing sector as a result of higher input costs, partly explained by higher prices charged by Chinese exporters (see China SMI).


Sales Managers' Index (SMI)

The Headline Sales Managers' Index (SMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide the most up-to-date assessment of business activity.

Business Confidence Index

The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism amongst sales for future conditions.

Market Growth Index

The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.

Sales Growth Index

The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services made by business during the month.

Prices Charged Index

The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.

Staffing Levels Index

The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.

About United States SMI Data

The Sales Managers Index provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in the U.S..

Key advantages of the U.S. SMI:

  • The SMI provides the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth in the USA.
  • The SMI provides the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI is based on a key occupational group - uniquely able to sense changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI is composite index of business confidence, market growth, sales, prices charged and staffing levels.
  • The SMI is a diffusion index, any index value above 50 indicates growth and below 50 indicates contraction.


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