World economic activity is starting to look rather buoyant when seen through the lens of economic growth in the world's three largest economies (China, the USA and India measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms), which for most of the recent past have collectively contributed close to 60% of global growth.
The Sales Managers Global Business Confidence Index in particular is at a 26 month high with an index reading of 53.2 in March. Business Confidence (or "animal spirits" as the data is sometimes referred to) is crucial to business investment, so the buoyant numbers seen in both February and March are consistent with expectations of significant growth in 2024. In addition, both the important Market and Sales Growth Indexes are also reflecting growth albeit of a somewhat unspectacular nature.
These data provide reasonable indications that the world may avoid the much predicted global recession in 2024, and enjoy at least moderate economic growth through the year.
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
Global SMI data is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.
Monthly data for 8 years is downloadable in a consistent unadjusted format for the 7 key indexes: