Global Growth Prospects for 2024: Looking Positive

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions

Updated: March 20, 2024

World economic activity is starting to look rather buoyant when seen through the lens of economic growth in the world's three largest economies (China, the USA and India measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms), which for most of the recent past have collectively contributed close to 60% of global growth.

Global: Sales Managers Index Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)


The Sales Managers Global Business Confidence Index in particular is at a 26 month high with an index reading of 53.2 in March. Business Confidence (or "animal spirits" as the data is sometimes referred to) is crucial to business investment, so the buoyant numbers seen in both February and March are consistent with expectations of significant growth in 2024. In addition, both the important Market and Sales Growth Indexes are also reflecting growth albeit of a somewhat unspectacular nature.

These data provide reasonable indications that the world may avoid the much predicted global recession in 2024, and enjoy at least moderate economic growth through the year.



Sales Managers Index Components



0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|56, 56.9, 57.7, 58, 56.9, 56.4, 55.3, 56.8, 55.9, 54.9, 55.1, 55.2, 54, 53.2, 47.4, 43.2, 47.5, 49.6, 50.9, 50.4, 51.1, 51.7, 51.8, 52.6, 51.6, 52.7, 52.2, 52.8, 52.6, 53.7, 52.9, 52.6, 52.6, 53.3, 53.3, 53.6, 52.3, 53.5, 50.9, 51.1, 50.4, 50.3, 50.5, 50.9, 51.8, 52, 50.5, 50.3, 51.5, 51.9, 52.1, 51.5, 51.2, 48.7, 50.4, 51.4, 50.2, 52.6, 52.2, 50.6, 53.2, 53.2 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

53.2
March 2024
The Global Business Confidence Index remained unchanged at 26 month high in March. The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales managers for future conditions.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|54.6, 54.8, 54.7, 54.2, 53.6, 53, 52.3, 52.6, 52.3, 50.9, 50.3, 50.6, 49.1, 49.5, 43, 37.8, 42.1, 45.7, 48.3, 48.9, 49.3, 49.7, 50.5, 51.7, 51.2, 51.1, 51.2, 51.3, 51.2, 52.6, 52.7, 52.1, 51.8, 51.7, 51.6, 52.3, 50, 49.7, 48.6, 48.8, 49, 48.7, 49.2, 50, 50.2, 49.8, 48.1, 48.3, 50.7, 50.9, 51.7, 50.6, 51.7, 49.7, 50.7, 51.4, 51.8, 52.3, 51.6, 51, 51.9, 51.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

51.9
March 2024
The Market Growth Index value remainly solidly above the 50 line in March. The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|55, 54.4, 54.2, 54, 53.1, 54.6, 53.8, 53.7, 53.6, 52.1, 52.5, 52.2, 48.9, 50.9, 45.1, 38.7, 44.1, 46, 48.4, 51.2, 50.5, 51.1, 52.9, 53.7, 51.9, 53.1, 52.6, 51.8, 52.6, 54.2, 54.2, 53.5, 53.6, 53.5, 52.7, 52.8, 53.2, 53.5, 51.4, 51.8, 50.7, 49.6, 50.5, 51.5, 52.1, 51.7, 50.7, 50.3, 53.6, 52.8, 51.9, 52, 52, 50.8, 52.7, 52.4, 52.5, 53.6, 52, 51.9, 53.1, 53.3 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

53.3
March 2024
The Global sales growth index increased further in March. The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services (current month from previous month).
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|52, 52.8, 53.4, 53.8, 53.3, 53.9, 54.6, 53.9, 55.3, 54.2, 53.7, 53.7, 52.7, 52.8, 49.3, 42.3, 44, 47.5, 51, 50.3, 51.2, 53.3, 53.3, 53.7, 51.5, 52, 52.1, 53.4, 54.2, 55, 54.3, 54.8, 55.2, 57.7, 55.6, 55, 54.5, 52.4, 52.9, 54.3, 54.6, 52.5, 51.8, 52.6, 52.5, 52.9, 51.2, 51.7, 52.3, 52.3, 52.2, 51.4, 51.8, 50.9, 52.6, 52.3, 53.7, 51.2, 51.9, 52, 51.8, 50.5 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

50.5
March 2024
The Prices Charged Index eased lower in March to a 42 month low. The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|50.8, 50.9, 52.5, 51.8, 51, 50.2, 49.6, 50.6, 50.9, 50.5, 51.2, 50.6, 49.1, 48.2, 45.5, 35.6, 38.9, 41.7, 45.4, 47.4, 46.4, 47.4, 48.7, 47.8, 47.9, 50.1, 49.2, 48.9, 49.5, 51.8, 50.3, 50.3, 51.2, 51.2, 50.7, 49.6, 50.3, 49.9, 48.2, 49, 46.4, 47.4, 46.5, 46.2, 49.5, 49.1, 49.1, 48.5, 49.2, 49.2, 50.8, 50.1, 50.6, 48.2, 49.3, 49, 49.4, 50.5, 51.6, 48.8, 51.5, 49.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

49.9
March 2024
Staffing Levels marginally fell in March, just below the 'no growth' level. The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|49.9, 49.5, 50.7, 49.4, 49.8, 49.6, 50, 49.6, 50.3, 49.6, 50.2, 50.1, 47.3, 45.7, 42, 35.4, 38.6, 39.7, 44.2, 45.2, 45.8, 47.4, 48.6, 46.3, 45.9, 46.6, 47.9, 48.8, 48.5, 50.1, 49.8, 47.7, 47.6, 49.4, 47.8, 48.9, 47.6, 50.9, 45.5, 48.1, 47.4, 45.4, 46.9, 47.6, 48.4, 48.5, 48.6, 47.5, 47.6, 48.6, 49.6, 48.7, 49.1, 48.7, 47.9, 46.9, 47, 50.5, 51, 49.3, 50.1, 49.5 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins

49.5
March 2024
Profit Margins decreased in March but at a very slow rate.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes




About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.






About the Data

Global SMI data is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data for 8 years is downloadable in a consistent unadjusted format for the 7 key indexes: