The Global Headline SMI recovered to 51.1 in May, after slipping to 50.5 in April. The Market Growth Index grew to 51.2 in the month to a 4-month high, and Staffing Levels improved to a 5-month high, both pointing to genuine if modest underlying momentum. Against that, the Business Confidence Index value fell again to 50.5, a 20-month low as the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Prices inflation moderated, suggesting that the inflationary pressures that characterised much of 2025 are gradually moderating, a development that, if sustained, should support consumer purchasing power and underpin demand conditions through the second half of 2026.
The country-level data reveals the extent to which the global expansion is being carried by the emerging markets rather than developed economies. India's Headline SMI held at 53.0 in May, comfortably in expansion and sustained by Sales Growth and Business Confidence that have remained consistently above 50.0 throughout the past few years, a profile of durable, uninterrupted growth that stands apart from the volatility evident elsewhere. China’s Headline SMI registered 51.2 in May, with the Manufacturing Market Growth Index reaching a 50-month high and Staffing Levels at their strongest in over two years, suggesting that the world's largest economy in GDP PPP terms is performing rather better than external commentary has tended to acknowledge. The US, by contrast, continued with a Headline SMI of under 50, the threshold that separates growth from contraction. With weak Staffing Levels and falling Business Confidence, the US data points to an economy under meaningful pressure which is dampening confidence.
The overall global picture that emerges from combining these economies is of a world where growth is shifting eastward with some conviction. India and China together account for a substantial share of global economic activity, and both are expanding, India steadily, China with gathering industrial momentum. The US, which has historically acted as the locomotive of global demand, is for the moment running below the expansion threshold. In all probability, the trajectory of the US economy over the next two to three months will prove the decisive factor in whether the Global Headline SMI consolidates above 51.0 or retreats toward the threshold, and the broader global economy will follow that lead more closely than any other single variable.
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
Global SMI data is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.
Monthly data for 8 years is downloadable in a consistent unadjusted format for the 6 key indexes: