Business Confidence in India Remains High
All growth related Indexes bar jobs are now positive
The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in India - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: March 22, 2023
The March Sales Managers Survey continues to reflect an economy still some way behind the growth story seen in the heady pre Covid days.
Economic activity in India is little by little recovering from the disaster of the global pandemic, but the scenario is very much one of two steps forward, one step back.
The Business Confidence, Market Growth and Sales Growth Indexes are all showing significant growth in line with official data.
Business confidence remains strong in March
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
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0
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Indias Staffing Levels Index|#0A66C2|50.3, 51.3, 49.4, 52.1, 49.7, 48.4, 49.7, 50.3, 52.5, 51, 50.3, 50.7, 50, 51.7, 52.5, 51, 51.1, 50.7, 51.4, 48.8, 51.4, 53.3, 52.7, 53.4, 54.3, 53.6, 53.2, 52.3
Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023, Feb 2023, Mar 2023
But the Price Index shows price inflation remains significantly higher than desirable.
And many companies are still very cautious in relation to staffing levels. The Jobs Index remains stubbornly short of the 50 "no change" level.
In summary, India appears to be emerging from the tragedy of Covid, but remains some way behind its previous growth trajectory. There is evidence to suggest that official data does not (almost by definition) take sufficient account of the massive problems faced by the very large unofficial shadow economy .
Official estimates of rapid growth in Indian economic activity do not entirely square with the evident and serious continuing problems of unemployment, particularly among the young.
Headline Sales Managers Index: 50.9
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
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India SMI Index|#0A66C2|48, 48.8, 49.2, 50.2, 48.1, 47.6, 46.8, 46.7, 48.2, 49.2, 50.1, 50.4, 49.9, 50.2, 49.9, 49.2, 49.7, 49.8, 48.4, 45.9, 49.1, 50.2, 50.8, 50.9, 51, 49.6, 50.5, 50.9
Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023, Feb 2023, Mar 2023
Sales Managers Index Components
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India|#0A66C2|50.3, 51.3, 49.4, 52.1, 49.7, 48.4, 49.7, 50.3, 52.5, 51, 50.3, 50.7, 50, 51.7, 52.5, 51, 51.1, 50.7, 51.4, 48.8, 51.4, 53.3, 52.7, 53.4, 54.3, 53.6, 53.2, 52.3
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Business Confidence
52.3
March 2023
The Business Confidence Index decreased 0.9 index points in March - but still representing solid expectations of future business conditions.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales for future conditions.
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India|#0A66C2|49.7, 50.6, 51.9, 50, 50, 49.3, 48.1, 47.3, 49.3, 50.3, 50.3, 51, 50.3, 50.3, 49.1, 50, 50.7, 50.4, 50.4, 47.8, 49.3, 50.7, 50, 50.3, 50.4, 50, 51.8, 51.3
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Market Growth
51.3
March 2023
Market Growth continued to grow in March but the index level fell by 0.4 index points.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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India|#0A66C2|50.7, 51, 50.6, 50.7, 50.3, 49.7, 49.4, 48.5, 48.6, 49.7, 51.6, 52.7, 50.6, 49.7, 50, 50.7, 51.8, 51.4, 50, 47.4, 50.3, 52, 51.7, 51.7, 50.7, 48.7, 50, 51
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Sales Growth
51.0
March 2023
The Sales Growth Index value increased in March, up 1.0 index points to a four month high.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services made by business during the month.
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India|#0A66C2|57, 54.9, 50.3, 53.1, 52.7, 53.9, 54.8, 51.2, 53.2, 53.8, 55.7, 56.8, 55.2, 57.1, 54.3, 56.1, 55, 55.3, 57.4, 54.5, 56.1, 54.3, 54, 51.4, 51.8, 53, 53.2, 54
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Prices Charged
54.0
March 2023
The Prices Charged Index increased futher in March to a 5 month high.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
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India|#0A66C2|41.4, 42.2, 44.9, 47.9, 42.6, 43.1, 40.1, 40.5, 42.6, 45.9, 48.1, 47.3, 48.7, 49, 48.1, 45.3, 45.4, 46.8, 41.8, 39.7, 45.6, 45, 49, 48.3, 48.6, 46.1, 47.2, 49
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Staffing Levels
49.0
March 2023
The Staffing Levels Index remained in contraction territory in March with an index level of 49.0 - just below the 50 'no growth' line.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
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India|#0A66C2|40.1, 35.7, 35, 40.7, 42.2, 40.5, 37.6, 37.8, 42.6, 41.4, 44, 45.9, 44.2, 45.9, 41.3, 42.2, 41.5, 44.7, 39.4, 37.4, 40.1, 44.4, 43.3, 43.9, 45.4, 43.8, 43.6, 45
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Profit Margins
45.0
March 2023
Profit Margins continued to fall in February with an index value continuing below the 50 'no growth' line.
The Profit Margins Index indicates gives insight into the level of profit sales teams are able to achieve and as a consequence the contribution companies can make to the country’s economy.
About the Sales Managers Indexes
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
- The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
- The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
- The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
- The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
- The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.