China Business Stays Confident in April (Unlike the USA)

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: April 21, 2025

Despite the tariff threats coming from America, confidence in both the Manufacturing and Services sectors in China remains in positive territory. The overall China Business Confidence Index reading for April was a robust 52, in stark comparison with the recessionary 47.2 reading for the USA. Confidence in the China Services sector remains significantly higher (an Index reading of 52.7) compared with Manufacturing (at 51.1), but with the Services sector now well ahead of Manufacturing in GDP weighting terms, the differential suggests continuing (albeit modest) growth in overall economic activity.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Business Confidence Index is particularly important as the question asked of panel members relates to their confidence in the future course of business activity, not its present level. Sales Managers, because of the very nature of their work tend to be more attuned to the future. They are in general very aware of levels of contracts they expect to be signed shortly, as well as current order books, with the potential personal impact of likely sales levels on bonuses linked to sales. Economists often refer to levels of Business Confidence as "animal spirits", reflecting the great importance of Confidence on future levels of investment and employment.

The overall message regarding China must remain one of considerable caution, until more data points illuminate the likely course of economic activity in the remaining months of 2025. The imposition of unprecedented giant tariffs by the Trump regime clearly spells a period of potentially great instability in economic activity, with no previous experience to act as a guide as to possible outcomes. In this context, the more muted optimism evident in the Chinese Manufacturing sector is not surprising. The big question remains : can the world's great growth engine of the past few decades move back towards its previously central role in sponsoring global economic expansion. Or will tariff wars with the USA keep China's growth and its influence on the world economy more restricted than has been the case for many years.

Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.