September Data Suggests a Manufacturing Resurgence May be Taking Place in China

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: September 22, 2025

The Chinese Sales Managers Index data for September reflects a mixed picture for the Chinese economy and is consequently difficult to interpret.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: While business confidence in China remains well above levels seen in the US and broadly comparable to India, the gap between Chinese Manufacturing and Services confidence levels has narrowed, suggesting a more balanced, albeit cautious, growth pattern. The All-Sector Business Confidence Index fell slightly to 52.7, a five-month low, reflecting a modest pullback after recent highs. Manufacturing, however, registered a four-month high at 54.1, suggesting resilience in the industrial sector. Services saw a sharper decline, slipping to 51.7, its lowest in seven months, indicating that the sector’s previously strong forward-looking optimism is softening.

STAFFING AND JOBS: Staffing levels remain uneven. Manufacturing improved to 50.0, a two-month high, suggesting firms are remaining caution but more orders to fulfil. Services, however, fell to 48.1, a 35-month low, highlighting continued caution in hiring. All-Sector staffing slipped to 48.9, its lowest in four months, reinforcing a picture of restrained labour expansion.

SUMMARY: September’s Sales Managers Survey data portrays China’s overall economy as growing slowly and unevenly but remaining difficult to interpret. Manufacturing returns as the backbone of growth, showing strong sales and rising confidence, while Services are experiencing a modest slowdown in forward-looking optimism and hiring. Overall, the economy continues its gradual shift towards a more balanced model between industrial and service activity. The key question remains whether Chinese growth can maintain momentum amid global trade tensions and domestic adjustments. For now, the evidence suggests cautious optimism, with slow but steady aggregate growth with sector-specific divergences.

Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.