Chinese Economy Recovering Rapidly from Covid Lockdown
The March Sales Managers Survey shows fast growth in the Service Sector
The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: March 20, 2023
The March Sales Managers Survey shows a continuation of the rapid recovery of economic activity seen in February. Covid related problems haven't entirely vanished: 37% of Chinese companies surveyed said they remained negatively impacted by Covid in one way or another, but the percentage fell sharply again from 45% in February and 55% in January.
March data shows the Services sector leading the pack, with a month on month jump in the Sales Growth Index from an already impressive reading of 55.7 in February, to an 18 month high of 56.2 in March.
China Services Sales Growth Index
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|51.5, 47.6, 49.7, 51.7, 51, 51.2, 50.7, 52.9, 52.5, 54.7, 53.1, 51.2, 56.5, 53.7, 52.1, 52.7, 55.7, 57, 54.4, 54.3, 50.7, 52.4, 51.9, 54.6, 54.5, 50.9, 51.2, 51.9, 50.3, 53.3, 49.7, 49.8, 51, 49.5, 53.3, 53.8, 53.3
Mar 2020, Apr 2020, May 2020, Jun 2020, Jul 2020, Aug 2020, Sep 2020, Oct 2020, Nov 2020, Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023, Feb 2023, Mar 2023
The All-Sector Sales Growth Index is now up at 54.6, a 16 month high. Manufacturing is showing a somewhat slower recovery, as might be expected, but is not so far behind with the Sales Growth Index up at a healthy 53.3 reading.
The data suggests there is little doubt that the Chinese economy isn't yet back to pre Covid normality, but both Manufacturing and Services sectors are experiencing rapidly rising activity levels. Although early days to be absolutely sure of the absolute size of this recovery, the March data does provide strong evidence that China is recovering from Covid much faster than expected by most analysts.
In conclusion, the rapid changes made in Covid policy from early December by the Chinese Government do appear to be releasing a wave of long suppressed energy, despite the continuing supply problems associated with the long lock down period.
Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|51.1, 51.2, 51.6, 51.6, 52.8, 53.3, 52.2, 53.7, 54.1, 52.9, 53.3, 52.4, 53.1, 53, 52.9, 52.8, 54.8, 53.9, 53.7, 54, 52.7, 53.3, 53.5, 53.7, 53.5, 50.6, 51.3, 50.7, 51.2, 50.7, 50.2, 50.2, 51.8, 48.1, 49.3, 51.9, 53
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence
53.0
March 2023
The Business Confidence Index increased 1.1 index points in March, continuing it's climb to a 1 year high.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales for future conditions.
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|46.6, 44.3, 47.2, 46.5, 46.9, 47.8, 48.5, 49.1, 49.6, 49.5, 50.7, 51.1, 51, 51.9, 51.5, 51.8, 52.5, 52.8, 51.8, 51.3, 50, 50.5, 50.9, 50.4, 49.7, 46, 45.6, 46.6, 47.3, 47.4, 47.4, 46.3, 47.6, 44.4, 46.1, 48, 49.5
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth
49.5
March 2023
The Market Growth Index continued to improve to 49.5. The Index value increased 1.5 index points between February and March.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|51, 48.2, 50.2, 50.8, 51.2, 51.1, 51.8, 52.7, 52.9, 55.4, 54.9, 52.3, 54.8, 54.4, 52.7, 53.7, 55.8, 56.2, 55.4, 54.8, 52, 53.2, 51.8, 54.1, 53.5, 50.7, 51.8, 51.7, 50.4, 50.8, 49.7, 51, 50.8, 50, 52.1, 54.6, 54.6
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth
54.6
March 2023
The Sales Growth Index value remained unchanged at a 16 month high in March.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services made by business during the month.
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|51.2, 47.3, 48.7, 48, 49.1, 48.9, 47.8, 49.1, 49.2, 49.2, 49.8, 49.4, 47.9, 48.4, 49.6, 56.6, 53.5, 51.8, 53.7, 55, 56.2, 53.4, 51.3, 51.4, 52.4, 50.5, 53.1, 52, 51, 47.6, 48.2, 48.7, 50.1, 47.6, 50.2, 48.8, 47.9
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged
47.9
March 2023
The Prices Charged Index fell in futher March, down by 0.9 index points.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|49.1, 47.1, 46.6, 47.4, 48.3, 49.2, 49.4, 50.7, 51.5, 50.1, 51.1, 51.9, 51.6, 51.3, 50.5, 50.7, 53, 51.9, 51.5, 51.5, 50.6, 50.8, 49.9, 50.9, 49.9, 49.5, 48.4, 49.2, 49.9, 46.8, 47.1, 48.5, 49.1, 47.8, 50, 49.9, 50.3
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels
50.3
March 2023
The Staffing Levels grew in March with an index level of 50.3 - just above the no growth level.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
0
0
0
China|#0A66C2|47.4, 45.7, 47.7, 48.3, 49.6, 49.7, 50.3, 51.2, 52.1, 52.8, 52.7, 51.1, 51, 51.4, 51.7, 51.4, 53.1, 52, 51.5, 49.3, 48.9, 50.1, 50.8, 51.4, 50.9, 48.4, 48.5, 50, 50.7, 50, 48.3, 48.7, 50.4, 48.9, 50.6, 50.9, 50.1
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins
50.1
March 2023
Profit Margins increased in March with an index value continuing above the 50 'no growth' line.
The Profit Margins Index indicates gives insight into the level of profit sales teams are able to achieve and as a consequence the contribution companies can make to the country’s economy.
About the Sales Managers Indexes
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
- The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
- The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
- The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
- The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
- The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.