China September Sales Indexes Reflect the Return of Price Inflation, and the Possible Return of Chinese Economic Growth

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions

Updated: September 20, 2023

The Sales Managers September survey suggests a significant pick-up in economic activity from the gloomy summer index results. The all sector Sales Growth Index in particular shows an increase to healthy 53.1 reading. Covid related supply problems still haven't gone away completely, but the percentage of companies reporting they are still affected in one way or another is way down ( at just over a third ) from the 55% recorded early in 2023.

The Manufacturing survey results continue to suggest that the sector is at best flat-lining. The Sales Managers Manufacturing Index remains below the 50 "no growth" line, although showing an improvement over August.

China Services: Prices Charged Index Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Services sector results, in contrast, are significantly more positive, with the overall Services Sector Index up again in the month, now standing at a very positive 54.0, a 5-month high.

Perhaps most important of the September results are the Price Index numbers.The Manufacturing Sales Managers Price Index still registered numbers below 50, although in September the Index rose to an 8 moth high at 49, indicating modest price falls over the month. But in the Services sector, a very different story is emerging, with the Services Price Index registering 53.2, a 22 month high. The All Sectors Price Index recorded a figure of 50.9, a 14 month high. This suggests fears of Chinese price deflation ushering in a Japanese style period of very low or negative growth have been overblown.

Given the shrinking prospects for global growth in a world grown more suspicious of international trade, and increasingly fettered by sanctions of one kind or another, predictions of GDP growth are of diminishing value.

But the signs of a resumption of growth in the worlds unquestioned no 1 Growth Engine over recent decades , are looking a little more positive.


Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors



0 0 0 China|#0A66C2|52.7, 51.9, 52.1, 51.2, 51.1, 50.7, 51.1, 50.7, 51.3, 51.5, 51.1, 50.7, 50.8, 50.7, 50.7, 51, 51, 50.8, 51.3, 51.4, 50.4, 50.1, 51.1, 52.1, 51.1, 50.3, 50.6, 51.4, 50.5, 51.6, 51.8, 52.4, 51.3, 51.3, 51.1, 50.4, 50.1, 49.7, 50.1, 50.4, 50.3, 50.3, 50.7, 51.5, 51, 50.7, 50.6, 50.3, 50, 50.9, 51.8, 49.9, 50.7, 51.3, 49.4, 51.1, 51.2, 51.6, 51.6, 52.8, 53.3, 52.2, 53.7, 54.1, 52.9, 53.3, 52.4, 53.1, 53, 52.9, 52.8, 54.8, 53.9, 53.7, 54, 52.7, 53.3, 53.5, 53.7, 53.5, 50.6, 51.3, 50.7, 51.2, 50.7, 50.2, 50.2, 51.8, 48.1, 49.3, 51.9, 53, 52.2, 52.1, 50.6, 48.6, 50.7, 50.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

50.9
September 2023
The Business Confidence Index grew to a 4 month high in September. The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales managers for future conditions.
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0 0 0 China|#0A66C2|50.9, 50.9, 52.9, 52.8, 53.1, 51.8, 53, 52.3, 52.3, 52.6, 51.4, 52.1, 50.8, 51.6, 51.4, 51.4, 51.9, 52.1, 52.5, 52.9, 52, 50.9, 53.7, 53.3, 52.5, 51.6, 51.9, 51.5, 51.9, 51.7, 51.7, 52, 51.5, 51.6, 51.2, 50.4, 50.4, 50.5, 50, 49.9, 50.4, 50.4, 50.2, 50.4, 50.4, 50, 50.4, 49.7, 49.4, 48.9, 48.9, 47.2, 47.4, 48, 44.7, 46.6, 44.3, 47.2, 46.5, 46.9, 47.8, 48.5, 49.1, 49.6, 49.5, 50.7, 51.1, 51, 51.9, 51.5, 51.8, 52.5, 52.8, 51.8, 51.3, 50, 50.5, 50.9, 50.4, 49.7, 46, 45.6, 46.6, 47.3, 47.4, 47.4, 46.3, 47.6, 44.4, 46.1, 48, 49.5, 50.4, 49.6, 49.3, 47.2, 47.6, 48.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

48.9
September 2023
The Market Growth Index fell further in September. The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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0 0 0 China|#0A66C2|54.3, 54.5, 55, 53.6, 54.1, 53.6, 52.6, 53.4, 52.7, 54.3, 53.7, 53.9, 52.7, 52.8, 52.8, 52.6, 53.8, 53.8, 54.1, 54.5, 54.8, 54.8, 56.1, 56.6, 56.1, 54.8, 54.7, 53.5, 55.8, 55.9, 54.7, 55.6, 54.7, 55.1, 54.6, 54.6, 54.7, 53.6, 53.1, 53.8, 53.3, 51.9, 51, 51.7, 52, 52.4, 52.2, 53.4, 52.5, 51.7, 53.9, 51.6, 50.8, 51.3, 44.3, 51, 48.2, 50.2, 50.8, 51.2, 51.1, 51.8, 52.7, 52.9, 55.4, 54.9, 52.3, 54.8, 54.4, 52.7, 53.7, 55.8, 56.2, 55.4, 54.8, 52, 53.2, 51.8, 54.1, 53.5, 50.7, 51.8, 51.7, 50.4, 50.8, 49.7, 51, 50.8, 50, 52.1, 54.6, 54.6, 52.7, 52.7, 50.6, 50.1, 52.2, 53.1 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

53.1
September 2023
The Sales Growth Index grew at a faster rate in September to a 6 month high. The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services (current month from previous month).
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0 0 0 China|#0A66C2|47.4, 47.8, 49.1, 48.5, 48.9, 48.7, 48.9, 49.8, 49.9, 50.9, 50.1, 50.1, 50.2, 50.5, 50.5, 50.2, 51, 50.8, 51.5, 51.4, 51.4, 51.6, 51.5, 52, 52.1, 52, 51.8, 51.3, 51.8, 52.6, 51.7, 53, 51, 50.9, 52.1, 52.9, 53.3, 53, 53.5, 53.8, 53.4, 51.8, 52, 51.7, 51.2, 53.3, 53.3, 51.4, 52, 51.8, 53.9, 51.2, 51, 50.6, 48.2, 51.2, 47.3, 48.7, 48, 49.1, 48.9, 47.8, 49.1, 49.2, 49.2, 49.8, 49.4, 47.9, 48.4, 49.6, 56.6, 53.5, 51.8, 53.7, 55, 56.2, 53.4, 51.3, 51.4, 52.4, 50.5, 53.1, 52, 51, 47.6, 48.2, 48.7, 50.1, 47.6, 50.2, 48.8, 47.9, 49.2, 47.7, 48.5, 47.5, 47.9, 50.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

50.9
September 2023
Prices grew in September at the fastest pace for 14 months. The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 China|#0A66C2|51.1, 51.5, 51.6, 50.4, 50.5, 50, 50.4, 50.5, 50.9, 51.3, 50.9, 51, 51.2, 50.8, 50.5, 50.2, 50.8, 50.1, 50.7, 51, 50.1, 50.6, 50, 49.9, 50, 50, 50.3, 49.7, 50.2, 50.7, 49.5, 49.9, 49.9, 50.2, 50.1, 50.3, 50.2, 49.7, 49.6, 49.6, 49.5, 49.1, 49.6, 49.5, 49.6, 49.9, 49.4, 49.4, 48.8, 49, 49.8, 49.3, 49.8, 50.1, 47.3, 49.1, 47.1, 46.6, 47.4, 48.3, 49.2, 49.4, 50.7, 51.5, 50.1, 51.1, 51.9, 51.6, 51.3, 50.5, 50.7, 53, 51.9, 51.5, 51.5, 50.6, 50.8, 49.9, 50.9, 49.9, 49.5, 48.4, 49.2, 49.9, 46.8, 47.1, 48.5, 49.1, 47.8, 50, 49.9, 50.3, 50.3, 49.8, 49.7, 48, 49.2, 48.3 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

48.3
September 2023
Staffing levels stayed below the no grow level. The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 China|#0A66C2|48.4, 49.3, 49.1, 49.6, 49, 49, 48.5, 48.1, 48.4, 50.8, 50.6, 50.7, 50.4, 51, 49.7, 49.8, 49.6, 50.1, 49.8, 49.4, 49.4, 48.8, 49.7, 50.8, 51.1, 51.7, 51.3, 50.6, 49.6, 50.3, 50.6, 49.5, 48.3, 49.3, 49.2, 49.6, 50.1, 49, 49.4, 49.2, 48.9, 48.3, 48.3, 49.2, 49.6, 49.6, 50, 50.6, 43.8, 47.4, 45.7, 47.7, 48.3, 49.6, 49.7, 50.3, 51.2, 52.1, 52.8, 52.7, 51.1, 51, 51.4, 51.7, 51.4, 53.1, 52, 51.5, 49.3, 48.9, 50.1, 50.8, 51.4, 50.9, 48.4, 48.5, 50, 50.7, 50, 48.3, 48.7, 50.4, 48.9, 50.6, 50.9, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4, 47.8, 47.6, 48, 47.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins

47.9
September 2023
Profit Margins continued to fall in September with an index value well below the 50 'no growth' line.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes




About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.






About the Data

SMI data for China is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data since 2013 is downloadable for all-sectors, manufacturing and service sectors separatly in a consistent unadjusted format for 7 key indexes: