Insight of the Day

Depopulation Trend Emerging in 38% of Countries


 
16 July 2026
 
Due to declining fertility rates, with half of all countries being below the replacement threshold, it is projected that over a third of countries will see their population shrink overall during the period to 2050.

Largest Estimated Declines in Population
Millions, 2025 - 2050

Country

Population
2025

Population
2050

 

Decline
2025-2050

% Decline
2025-2050

China

1,412.9M

1,173.2M

 

-239.6M

-17%

Japan

122.9M

98.3M

 

-24.6M

-20%

Russia

143.7M

126.1M

 

-17.6M

-12%

Brazil

212.2M

201.0M

 

-11.2M

-5%

Germany

83.9M

73.2M

 

-10.7M

-13%

Italy

59.0M

48.6M

 

-10.5M

-18%

Thailand

71.4M

61.5M

 

-9.9M

-14%

Korea, Rep.

51.5M

42.1M

 

-9.5M

-18%

Ukraine

38.9M

29.6M

 

-9.3M

-24%

Poland

38.1M

30.6M

 

-7.4M

-19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Country

 

Decline
2025-2050

% Decline
2025-2050

China

 

-239.6M

-17%

Japan

 

-24.6M

-20%

Russia

 

-17.6M

-12%

Brazil

 

-11.2M

-5%

Germany

 

-10.7M

-13%

Italy

 

-10.5M

-18%

Thailand

 

-9.9M

-14%

Korea, Rep.

 

-9.5M

-18%

Ukraine

 

-9.3M

-24%

Poland

 

-7.4M

-19%

 

 

 

 
Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025

The sum of the top ten largest declines (listed in the table above) totals 350 million.

More for subscribers:  
See more...Population by Size Data
See more...Population Growth Rates Data
See more...Population Fertility Rate Data
 


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