The Business Confidence Index is particularly important as the question asked of panel members relates to their confidence in the future course of business activity, not its present level. Sales Managers, because of the very nature of their work tend to be more attuned to the future. They are in general very aware of levels of contracts they expect to be signed shortly, as well as current order books, with the potential personal impact of likely sales levels on bonuses linked to sales. Economists often refer to levels of Business Confidence as "animal spirits", reflecting the great importance of Confidence on future levels of investment and employment.

The overall message regarding China must remain one of considerable caution, until more data points illuminate the likely course of economic activity in the remaining months of 2025. The imposition of unprecedented giant tariffs by the Trump regime clearly spells a period of potentially great instability in economic activity, with no previous experience to act as a guide as to possible outcomes. In this context, the more muted optimism evident in the Chinese Manufacturing sector is not surprising. The big question remains : can the world's great growth engine of the past few decades move back towards its previously central role in sponsoring global economic expansion. Or will tariff wars with the USA keep China's growth and its influence on the world economy more restricted than has been the case for many years.
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