The EU Faces Serious Depopulation, Starting Now


 
Fertility rates have been falling rapidly in all EU member states since 1970. For example, in Italy and Spain the fertility rate has halved. Currently, not a single member-state is at stable childbearing levels. Other factors, such as migration, disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time.

EU Fertility Rates 1950-2050
Data is ranked on lowest population fertility rates by 2025

Country

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Spain

2.47

2.77

1.21

1.12

0.70

Italy

2.52

2.18

1.25

1.13

0.79

Poland

3.65

2.28

1.37

1.20

0.75

Germany

2.19

1.48

1.39

1.35

0.99

Netherlands

3.10

1.67

1.72

1.37

1.01

Czechia

2.82

2.43

1.15

1.37

1.03

Belgium

2.35

1.75

1.66

1.39

1.22

Sweden

2.29

1.77

1.54

1.48

1.45

Romania

3.08

2.60

1.30

1.55

1.01

France

2.97

1.94

1.88

1.61

1.36

 

 

 

 

 

 

Country

1950

2000

2025

2050

Spain

2.5

1.2

1.1

0.7

Italy

2.5

1.2

1.1

0.8

Poland

3.7

1.4

1.2

0.8

Germany

2.2

1.4

1.3

1.0

Netherlands

3.1

1.7

1.4

1.0

Czechia

2.8

1.1

1.4

1.0

Belgium

2.3

1.7

1.4

1.2

Sweden

2.3

1.5

1.5

1.5

Romania

3.1

1.3

1.6

1.0

France

3.0

1.9

1.6

1.4

 

 

 

 

 
Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025




Consequently, the population in the ten most populous EU states is projected to decline by approximately 23 million people between 2024 and 2050. Germany, Spain, Poland and others are projected to lose a big percentage of their current population. In a projection to 2100, Spain’s population is expected to decline by a staggering 50% or more. Government initiatives attempting to increase fertility rates, such as subsidised childcare, will be largely ineffective in the future according to the latest research.

A depopulating EU will also be an aging one. As each successive generation falls, in some cases to half the size of the previous one, the percentage of non-working older dependants will rise proportionately. Old people on average cost developed states up to ten times the cost of young people. While young people are an investment in the future, old people are predominantly purely consumers of scarce and expensive resources. This top-heavy generational pyramid will naturally put great strain on health care and old age support systems, accentuated by the projected 49-million-person shrinkage in the EU’s working-age population.
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