Global Growth Index At 13-Month High
The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: March 22, 2023
The threat of global recession in 2023 is (slowly) receding, as new March data shows the Chinese economy recovering faster than expected from Covid lockdowns.
All global sales related Indexes except staffing remained above the crucial 50 "no growth" line in March. The Market Growth and Business Confidence Indexes reached 13 and 14 month highs respectively.
Global Sales Growth Index
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
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Global SMI|#0A66C2|52.9, 53.7, 51.9, 53.1, 52.6, 51.8, 52.6, 54.2, 54.2, 53.5, 53.6, 53.5, 52.7, 52.8, 53.2, 53.5, 51.4, 51.8, 50.7, 49.6, 50.5, 51.5, 52.1, 51.7, 50.7, 50.3, 53.6, 52.8
Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023, Feb 2023, Mar 2023
The Sales Growth Index again stayed very positive with a reading close to 53. The Chinese Services Sales Growth Index contributed most to the Global Sales Index, rising to a hefty 56.2 reading.
With major bank failures reported in both the US and Europe in March, it's clearly too early to suggest that the possibility of global economic recession in 2023 has been entirely banished.
But the much forecast shadow has certainly receded. There is no doubt that China has been the primary motor of global growth over the past three decades, so the revival of economic activity in China suggested by the March Sales Indexes is certainly a very positive sign.
Headline Sales Managers Index: 51.2
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
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India SMI Index|#0A66C2|54.1, 53.7, 51.8, 53.5, 52.3, 51.9, 52.9, 52, 51.2, 47.9, 41.7, 34.6, 41.1, 44.1, 48.5, 50.7, 48.2, 48.9, 51.2, 51.5, 49.9, 51.5, 51.3, 52, 52.7, 54.9, 53.2, 52.4, 52.6, 54.5, 53.2, 53.5, 51.3, 49.5, 50.3, 51.4, 49, 49.6, 49.5, 50.6, 53, 51.4, 51.2, 49.2, 51.7, 50.6
Jun 2019, Jul 2019, Aug 2019, Sep 2019, Oct 2019, Nov 2019, Dec 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020, Mar 2020, Apr 2020, May 2020, Jun 2020, Jul 2020, Aug 2020, Sep 2020, Oct 2020, Nov 2020, Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023, Feb 2023, Mar 2023
Sales Managers Index Components
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Global|#0A66C2|56.9, 56.4, 55.3, 56.8, 55.9, 54.9, 55.1, 55.2, 54, 53.2, 47.4, 43.2, 47.5, 49.6, 50.9, 50.4, 51.1, 51.7, 51.8, 52.6, 51.6, 52.7, 52.2, 52.8, 52.6, 53.7, 52.9, 52.6, 52.6, 53.3, 53.3, 53.6, 52.3, 53.5, 50.9, 51.1, 50.4, 50.3, 50.5, 50.9, 51.8, 52, 50.5, 50.3, 51.5, 51.9
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence
51.9
March 2023
The Business Confidence Index increased 0.4 index points in March to a 13 month high.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales for future conditions.
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Global|#0A66C2|53.6, 53, 52.3, 52.6, 52.3, 50.9, 50.3, 50.6, 49.1, 49.5, 43, 37.8, 42.1, 45.7, 48.3, 48.9, 49.3, 49.7, 50.5, 51.7, 51.2, 51.1, 51.2, 51.3, 51.2, 52.6, 52.7, 52.1, 51.8, 51.7, 51.6, 52.3, 50, 49.7, 48.6, 48.8, 49, 48.7, 49.2, 50, 50.2, 49.8, 48.1, 48.3, 50.7, 50.9
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth
50.9
March 2023
The Market Growth Index value increased futher in March to a 14 month high.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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Global|#0A66C2|53.1, 54.6, 53.8, 53.7, 53.6, 52.1, 52.5, 52.2, 48.9, 50.9, 45.1, 38.7, 44.1, 46, 48.4, 51.2, 50.5, 51.1, 52.9, 53.7, 51.9, 53.1, 52.6, 51.8, 52.6, 54.2, 54.2, 53.5, 53.6, 53.5, 52.7, 52.8, 53.2, 53.5, 51.4, 51.8, 50.7, 49.6, 50.5, 51.5, 52.1, 51.7, 50.7, 50.3, 53.6, 52.8
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth
53.6
March 2023
Global sales Growth grew at a slower pace in march, down 0.5 index points from February.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services made by business during the month.
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Global|#0A66C2|53.3, 53.9, 54.6, 53.9, 55.3, 54.2, 53.7, 53.7, 52.7, 52.8, 49.3, 42.3, 44, 47.5, 51, 50.3, 51.2, 53.3, 53.3, 53.7, 51.5, 52, 52.1, 53.4, 54.2, 55, 54.3, 54.8, 55.2, 57.7, 55.6, 55, 54.5, 52.4, 52.9, 54.3, 54.6, 52.5, 51.8, 52.6, 52.5, 52.9, 51.2, 51.7, 52.3, 52.3
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged
52.3
March 2023
The Prices Charged Index remained unchanged for the third consecutive month.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
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Global|#0A66C2|51, 50.2, 49.6, 50.6, 50.9, 50.5, 51.2, 50.6, 49.1, 48.2, 45.5, 35.6, 38.9, 41.7, 45.4, 47.4, 46.4, 47.4, 48.7, 47.8, 47.9, 50.1, 49.2, 48.9, 49.5, 51.8, 50.3, 50.3, 51.2, 51.2, 50.7, 49.6, 50.3, 49.9, 48.2, 49, 46.4, 47.4, 46.5, 46.2, 49.5, 49.1, 49.1, 48.5, 49.2, 49.2
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels
49.2
March 2023
The Staffing Levels Index remained stable on 49.2 -below the 'no growth' level.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
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Global|#0A66C2|49.8, 49.6, 50, 49.6, 50.3, 49.6, 50.2, 50.1, 47.3, 45.7, 42, 35.4, 38.6, 39.7, 44.2, 45.2, 45.8, 47.4, 48.6, 46.3, 45.9, 46.6, 47.9, 48.8, 48.5, 50.1, 49.8, 47.7, 47.6, 49.4, 47.8, 48.9, 47.6, 50.9, 45.5, 48.1, 47.4, 45.4, 46.9, 47.6, 48.4, 48.5, 48.6, 47.5, 47.6, 48.6
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins
47.6
March 2023
Profit Margins continued to fall but at a slightly slower rate than in February with an index value below the 50 'no growth' line.
The Profit Margins Index indicates gives insight into the level of profit sales teams are able to achieve and as a consequence the contribution companies can make to the country’s economy.
About the Sales Managers Indexes
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
- The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
- The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
- The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
- The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
- The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.