Global Growth Continues, but Warning Signs Emerging

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: August 19, 2024

World economic activity continues to grow when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes, in the world's three largest economies (China, the USA and India).

For most recent decades these countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of global growth, so if their survey numbers are looking good, prospects for the world as a whole are unlikely to be too far behind.

In August, the Sales Managers growth related Indexes remained consistent with continuing modest expansion in global economic activity. Of particular note, the Sales and Market related components of the Global Sales Managers Index are now both positive and rising. However there has been a distinct downward trend over recent months in the forward-looking Business Confidence Indexes, now looking more threatening with a significant fall in the overall Global numbers in August.

These data provide a good indication that the world is likely to avoid, at least for the remainder of the third quarter, the much-predicted worldwide recession brought on by rising interest rates. Nevertheless, Sales Managers recent loss of confidence in the future suggests the fourth quarter of the year may bring Global economic growth down to somewhat lower levels, potentially tipping into recession in 2025.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The chart shows the last 7 months of near continuous decline in Global Business Confidence, as measured by collective data from China, the USA and India; the three biggest economic growth engines of the last quarter century.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.