Global Growth Drivers Show Modest Momentum

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: September 22, 2025

Global economic activity in September remained modest, with the Global Sales Managers Index (SMI) steady at 51.0, just above the no-growth threshold, indicating slow but positive expansion worldwide. The Global Market Growth Index held at 51.0, matching its five-month high, while global Sales Growth edged down slightly to 52.2, its lowest in four months. Prices charged globally rose to 52.2, a three-month high.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

India continues to be the clearest driver of global expansion, with Business Confidence holding at 52.0 and headline Sales Managers Index remaining robust at 50.9. Sales Growth and Market Growth in India both support its strong contribution to world activity, and hiring intentions are steadier than in other major economies. China also plays a stabilising role, with Business Confidence at 52.7, slightly lower than last month but still higher than in the US. All-Sector Sales Managers Indexes in China show moderate growth, supported by Manufacturing strength, while Services are experiencing softer momentum.

The US contribution to global activity remains limited, with Business Confidence at only 50.4 and headline Sales Managers Index at 50.4, indicating fragile expansion. Market and Sales Growth are modest, and labour markets remain weak relative to pre-pandemic levels.

Overall, the global picture is one of slow, uneven growth: India is the strongest engine, China provides steady support despite some softening in Services, and the US contributes little to global momentum. The data suggest that 2025 will continue on a steady but subdued trajectory, with little sign of a significant acceleration in the second half of the year.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.