Global Growth Prospects Looking Good

All Global Sales Indexes Increase in November

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: November 21, 2023

November Sales Managers Survey data suggests that the three biggest engines of global growth are - at last - all indicating renewed global growth. Almost all Sales Indexes in China, the USA and India are now either positive or moving in a positive direction.

ndia in particular is showing Business Confidence at a 44-month high, but confidence is now looking good in all the three leading players in the world economy. The Global Sales Managers Index is at a 24 month high, rising rapidly since late summer.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

All the Global Indexes are now positive. The Sales Growth Index is up at a 27 month high. The Market Growth Index at a 9 month high. And even the Jobs Index, which has been looking rather miserable through most of 2023, is showing signs of life, with a positive 50+ Index reading and at a 5 month high.

Even Price inflation, for so long riding high and forcing central banks to raise interest rates, no longer appears to form a serious threat, with the Global Price Index sinking to a very modest 51.2 reading, compatible with modest price rises.

All too good to be true? Possibly. But all indications from the November survey, taken over a period of time with many indications of uncertainty present, does appear to suggest that there is a reasonable chance that 2024, at least from an economic perspective, may not be as bad as many fear.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.