Global Growth Prospects Rise

Business Confidence and Market Growth Indexes Both Rise in September

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: September 20, 2023

The possibility of global recession in the fourth quarter of 2023 remains, as the all sector Sales Managers Survey data for the three great growth engines of economic activity (China, the USA and India) remain mired in relatively lowly numbers, and are still seen as fragile as interest rates continue to be raised to keep downward pressure on price inflation. The Indian economy continues to grow faster than is the case for China and the US, but is much smaller than the two mega engines of the US and China that have propelled global economic activity so far, and so fast, for so long.

It's also too early to suggest that the threat of global recession is receding, as interest rate increases can exert a powerful downward influence on economic growth, particularly in a world grown suspicious of global trade and is increasingly tied up in a great variety of politically inspired sanctions.

But there is no doubt that China has been the primary motor of global growth over the past four decades, so the current very hesitant but increasingly positive revival of service sector economic activity in China is likely to be an encouraging sign for growth expectations for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

Couple this with rising global Business Confidence as illustrated among Sales Managers (see chart). Plus the really good news is that price inflation appears to be falling to more normal levels in both India and the USA. Plus the threat of price deflation turning the Chinese economy into a Japanese style quagmire of falling prices and falling economic activity appears to be receding. And the possibility of renewed global economic growth in 2023 starts to look a little more realistic.

Sales Managers Index Components

---

---

About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.