May Global Sales Survey Reflects Some Recovery From Trump Tariffs Turbulence

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Updated: May 19, 2025

World economic activity grew modestly in May when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes for the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India).

Global Sales Managers Index Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)


For most recent decades these three countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of total global growth, and in reality, probably significantly more, as the "rest of the world" in this case includes many countries with less reliable and often exaggerated data.

In any event, if the survey results from these three countries collectively are suggesting that a small recovery is underway, the threat to global trade from the Trump Tariffs may be less of a problem than feared.

The overall Sales Managers Indexes for all three countries are in fact now back over the 50 "no growth" line, suggesting that the retreat by the US Government from the most punitive tariff levels initially threatened has allowed most economic activity (to date) to continue largely unabated. The Staffing Indexes in China remain the exception to this tale of modest recovery, and continue to suggest a lot of caution remains in China in relation to business expansion, while the threat of giant tariff's remains unresolved.



Sales Managers Index Components



0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|57.7, 58, 56.9, 56.4, 55.3, 56.8, 55.9, 54.9, 55.1, 55.2, 54, 53.2, 47.4, 43.2, 47.5, 49.6, 50.9, 50.4, 51.1, 51.7, 51.8, 52.6, 51.6, 52.7, 52.2, 52.8, 52.6, 53.7, 52.9, 52.6, 52.6, 53.3, 53.3, 53.6, 52.3, 53.5, 50.9, 51.1, 50.4, 50.3, 50.5, 50.9, 51.8, 52, 50.5, 50.3, 51.5, 51.9, 52.1, 51.5, 51.2, 48.7, 50.4, 51.4, 50.2, 52.6, 52.2, 50.6, 53.2, 53.2, 52.8, 52.2, 51.4, 51.4, 50.8, 50.3, 50.8, 52.9, 52.8, 52.2, 51.7, 52.7, 50.4, 52.5 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

52.5
May 2025
Global Business Confidence increased at a modest pace in May. The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales managers for future conditions.
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0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|54.7, 54.2, 53.6, 53, 52.3, 52.6, 52.3, 50.9, 50.3, 50.6, 49.1, 49.5, 43, 37.8, 42.1, 45.7, 48.3, 48.9, 49.3, 49.7, 50.5, 51.7, 51.2, 51.1, 51.2, 51.3, 51.2, 52.6, 52.7, 52.1, 51.8, 51.7, 51.6, 52.3, 50, 49.7, 48.6, 48.8, 49, 48.7, 49.2, 50, 50.2, 49.8, 48.1, 48.3, 50.7, 50.9, 51.7, 50.6, 51.7, 49.7, 50.7, 51.4, 51.8, 52.3, 51.6, 51, 51.9, 51.9, 51.5, 51.5, 51.8, 51.1, 51.6, 50.7, 50.2, 51.3, 51.2, 51.3, 51.2, 51.1, 49.9, 50.8 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

50.8
May 2025
The Market Growth Index value increased in May. The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|54.2, 54, 53.1, 54.6, 53.8, 53.7, 53.6, 52.1, 52.5, 52.2, 48.9, 50.9, 45.1, 38.7, 44.1, 46, 48.4, 51.2, 50.5, 51.1, 52.9, 53.7, 51.9, 53.1, 52.6, 51.8, 52.6, 54.2, 54.2, 53.5, 53.6, 53.5, 52.7, 52.8, 53.2, 53.5, 51.4, 51.8, 50.7, 49.6, 50.5, 51.5, 52.1, 51.7, 50.7, 50.3, 53.6, 52.8, 51.9, 52, 52, 50.8, 52.7, 52.4, 52.5, 53.6, 52, 51.9, 53.1, 53.3, 54.1, 53.2, 53.7, 53.1, 53.3, 52.4, 52, 53.7, 53.3, 52.2, 52.7, 53.4, 51.2, 52 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

52.0
May 2025
Global Sales Growth grew in May. The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services (current month from previous month).
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0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|53.4, 53.8, 53.3, 53.9, 54.6, 53.9, 55.3, 54.2, 53.7, 53.7, 52.7, 52.8, 49.3, 42.3, 44, 47.5, 51, 50.3, 51.2, 53.3, 53.3, 53.7, 51.5, 52, 52.1, 53.4, 54.2, 55, 54.3, 54.8, 55.2, 57.7, 55.6, 55, 54.5, 52.4, 52.9, 54.3, 54.6, 52.5, 51.8, 52.6, 52.5, 52.9, 51.2, 51.7, 52.3, 52.3, 52.2, 51.4, 51.8, 50.9, 52.6, 52.3, 53.7, 51.2, 51.9, 52, 51.8, 50.5, 53, 52.2, 52.7, 51.6, 52.2, 51.4, 50.9, 52.3, 52.7, 51.7, 51.7, 51.9, 52.1, 51.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

51.9
May 2025
Prices charged levels slowed in May. The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
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0 0 0 Global|#0A66C2|52.5, 51.8, 51, 50.2, 49.6, 50.6, 50.9, 50.5, 51.2, 50.6, 49.1, 48.2, 45.5, 35.6, 38.9, 41.7, 45.4, 47.4, 46.4, 47.4, 48.7, 47.8, 47.9, 50.1, 49.2, 48.9, 49.5, 51.8, 50.3, 50.3, 51.2, 51.2, 50.7, 49.6, 50.3, 49.9, 48.2, 49, 46.4, 47.4, 46.5, 46.2, 49.5, 49.1, 49.1, 48.5, 49.2, 49.2, 50.8, 50.1, 50.6, 48.2, 49.3, 49, 49.4, 50.5, 51.6, 48.8, 51.5, 49.9, 50.4, 50.6, 50.2, 51.5, 50.7, 49.8, 49.7, 50.6, 50.6, 50.4, 49, 50.2, 48.1, 49.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

49.9
May 2025
Global staffing levels fell again in May. The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.






About the Data

Global SMI data is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data for 8 years is downloadable in a consistent unadjusted format for the 6 key indexes: