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Global Recession Looms as War in Europe, Rampant Inflation, and Supply Chain Problems take their Toll

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions

Updated: June 24, 2022

Global Sales Managers Index


Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
0 0 0 Global SMI|#0A66C2|55.7, 56, 55.5, 56.1, 56, 56.4, 56.4, 56, 54.2, 55.4, 57.5, 56.5, 56.4, 55, 54.8, 55.2, 55.9, 56, 55.8, 56.6, 56.9, 57.7, 56.5, 56.6, 57.5, 57.7, 56.3, 56.3, 56.1, 56.2, 55.6, 54, 54.1, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 53.7, 53.6, 52.8, 53.4, 53.2, 52.1, 52.3, 52.2, 50.3, 50.5, 45.2, 38.8, 43.1, 45.7, 48.3, 49.5, 49.3, 50, 51, 51.5, 50.7, 51.8, 51.3, 51.2, 51.5, 53.1, 52.5, 52.1, 52.3, 52.4, 52.1, 52.1, 51.5, 51.7, 49.8, 50.2, 49.1 Jun 2016, Jul 2016, Aug 2016, Sep 2016, Oct 2016, Nov 2016, Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2017, Mar 2017, Apr 2017, May 2017, Jun 2017, Jul 2017, Aug 2017, Sep 2017, Oct 2017, Nov 2017, Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018, Apr 2018, May 2018, Jun 2018, Jul 2018, Aug 2018, Sep 2018, Oct 2018, Nov 2018, Dec 2018, Jan 2019, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Apr 2019, May 2019, Jun 2019, Jul 2019, Aug 2019, Sep 2019, Oct 2019, Nov 2019, Dec 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020, Mar 2020, Apr 2020, May 2020, Jun 2020, Jul 2020, Aug 2020, Sep 2020, Oct 2020, Nov 2020, Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022




The Global Sales Managers Index covers the three great engines of global economic growth of the past decade: China, the USA and India. Together over the past decade, these three countries accounted for 57.8% of global economic growth.

None are proving immune to the serious problems now impacting heavily on global economic activity. The latest Sales Managers Index shows that the world economy is rapidly heading back into recession territory, as the Chinese lockdowns (although moderating) continue to impact heavily on global supply chains; war in Europe drags on and is now damaging global energy and food supplies; and price inflation approaches and in some cases already exceeds 10%, fuelled both by shortages of goods and the lax monetary policies followed by many countries in reaction to Covid.

As a consequence, three out of four growth related Sales Managers Indexes are at near two year lows. The overall Sales Managers Index has tipped into recession with a reading of 49.1, well below the crucial 50 "no change" level. Staffing levels remain way below those seen a year ago.

Global Staffing Levels Index


Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
0 0 0 Global SMI|#0A66C2|51.7, 52.2, 52.5, 52.6, 53.5, 53.4, 53.3, 53.3, 51.9, 52.8, 55.2, 54, 53.3, 51.8, 51.2, 52.1, 53.9, 53.8, 52.7, 53, 53.8, 54.7, 54, 54, 54.8, 55.1, 55.4, 54, 54.1, 55, 52.7, 50.9, 50.8, 50.9, 52.5, 51.8, 51, 50.2, 49.6, 50.6, 50.9, 50.5, 51.2, 50.6, 49.1, 48.2, 45.5, 35.6, 38.9, 41.7, 45.4, 47.4, 46.4, 47.4, 48.7, 47.8, 47.9, 50.1, 49.2, 48.9, 49.5, 51.8, 50.3, 50.3, 51.2, 51.2, 50.7, 49.6, 50.3, 49.9, 48.2, 49, 46.4 Jun 2016, Jul 2016, Aug 2016, Sep 2016, Oct 2016, Nov 2016, Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2017, Mar 2017, Apr 2017, May 2017, Jun 2017, Jul 2017, Aug 2017, Sep 2017, Oct 2017, Nov 2017, Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018, Apr 2018, May 2018, Jun 2018, Jul 2018, Aug 2018, Sep 2018, Oct 2018, Nov 2018, Dec 2018, Jan 2019, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Apr 2019, May 2019, Jun 2019, Jul 2019, Aug 2019, Sep 2019, Oct 2019, Nov 2019, Dec 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020, Mar 2020, Apr 2020, May 2020, Jun 2020, Jul 2020, Aug 2020, Sep 2020, Oct 2020, Nov 2020, Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022








About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.






About the Data

Global SMI data is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data for 8 years is downloadable in a consistent unadjusted format for the 7 key indexes: