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United States Economic Activity Fell Sharply in January as Interest Rate Hikes Bite

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: January 23, 2022

All US Sales Managers Indexes fell in January. The Sales Growth Index fell most dramatically to a 29 month low, with an index reading of 48.9, significantly below the 50 no-growth line, indicating a major shift in sales since pre-Christmas levels.

The overall Sales Managers Index, combining results from all the growth related aspects of the survey, fell to a 7 month low, and also fell significantly below the 50 ‘no-growth’ level to an index reading of 49.2.

There seems little doubt that the Federal Reserve's interest rises are taking the shine off already uncertain confidence levels in many US corporations.

Business confidence among sales managers did indeed continue its fall back from the far more optimistic views expressed in Q3 last year, to much more cautious views on the likelihood of growth in economic activity over the next few months.

United States: Prices Charged Index


Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|53.3, 49.6, 56.3, 56.3, 56.6, 55.3, 53.7, 52.9, 54.6, 55.7, 56, 54.4, 57.6, 54.5, 55.8, 54.4, 56.4, 56.5, 56.7, 59, 59, 57.3, 54.9, 55.9, 55.8, 53.2, 54.9, 55.4, 52, 50, 52.5, 55.3, 53.6, 55.9, 55.8, 54.7, 55.1, 54.6, 51.7, 49.1, 40.1, 43.7, 47.9, 52.8, 52.4, 52.9, 56.5, 56.2, 57.4, 54.4, 56, 55.8, 57.2, 57, 58.4, 57.6, 56.4, 55.1, 59.7, 58.2, 58.2, 58, 57.7, 53.2, 55.2, 56.3, 53.2, 54.5, 56.6, 56, 56.6, 55, 52.8 Jan 2017, Feb 2017, Mar 2017, Apr 2017, May 2017, Jun 2017, Jul 2017, Aug 2017, Sep 2017, Oct 2017, Nov 2017, Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018, Apr 2018, May 2018, Jun 2018, Jul 2018, Aug 2018, Sep 2018, Oct 2018, Nov 2018, Dec 2018, Jan 2019, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Apr 2019, May 2019, Jun 2019, Jul 2019, Aug 2019, Sep 2019, Oct 2019, Nov 2019, Dec 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020, Mar 2020, Apr 2020, May 2020, Jun 2020, Jul 2020, Aug 2020, Sep 2020, Oct 2020, Nov 2020, Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023




The most positive aspect of the January data is without doubt the Prices Charged Index. Although this Index continues to reflect price inflation across many product and service sectors, the rate of increase has slowed very considerably, to a 28 month low in January. Price inflation has not yet been vanquished, but it’s no longer looking likely that 2023 will see price inflation continue at the elevated levels seen for much of 2022



Headline Sales Managers Index: 49.2




Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)
0 0 0 India SMI Index|#0A66C2|52.5, 53.5, 54.4, 54.9, 54, 54.2, 55.4, 55.8, 54.5, 56, 56.5, 54.8, 55.6, 55.4, 56.6, 55.6, 55.3, 58, 59.6, 59.3, 59.6, 60.4, 60.4, 57, 53.9, 56.1, 55, 56.1, 55.9, 54.1, 53.7, 51.8, 53.5, 52.3, 51.9, 52.9, 52, 51.2, 47.9, 41.7, 34.6, 41.1, 44.1, 48.5, 50.7, 48.2, 48.9, 51.2, 51.5, 49.9, 51.5, 51.3, 52, 52.7, 54.9, 53.2, 52.4, 52.6, 54.5, 53.2, 53.5, 51.3, 49.5, 50.3, 51.4, 49, 49.6, 49.5, 50.6, 53, 51.4, 51.2, 49.2 Jan 2017, Feb 2017, Mar 2017, Apr 2017, May 2017, Jun 2017, Jul 2017, Aug 2017, Sep 2017, Oct 2017, Nov 2017, Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018, Apr 2018, May 2018, Jun 2018, Jul 2018, Aug 2018, Sep 2018, Oct 2018, Nov 2018, Dec 2018, Jan 2019, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Apr 2019, May 2019, Jun 2019, Jul 2019, Aug 2019, Sep 2019, Oct 2019, Nov 2019, Dec 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020, Mar 2020, Apr 2020, May 2020, Jun 2020, Jul 2020, Aug 2020, Sep 2020, Oct 2020, Nov 2020, Dec 2020, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, Mar 2021, Apr 2021, May 2021, Jun 2021, Jul 2021, Aug 2021, Sep 2021, Oct 2021, Nov 2021, Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022, Jun 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023






Sales Managers Index Components



0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|54.7, 55.1, 56.3, 57.1, 55.9, 54.4, 53.7, 56.7, 54.2, 56.3, 57.3, 53, 57.9, 57.8, 58.5, 56.8, 56.4, 60.2, 60, 61.5, 60.3, 61, 62.2, 58.8, 50.4, 57.7, 58, 59.1, 60.4, 57.9, 57, 54, 55.6, 53.8, 53.9, 53.9, 53, 52.6, 48.6, 41, 38, 45, 48.3, 50.4, 50.8, 49, 49.7, 51.2, 52.3, 51.7, 52.7, 52.4, 54.6, 53.6, 53.9, 52.1, 52.1, 52.2, 55, 54.8, 54.6, 50.7, 50, 50.7, 51, 49.7, 50, 50, 50.7, 53.2, 51.6, 51.4, 50 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

50.0
January 2023
The Business Confidence Index fell 1.4 index points in January to a 5 month low. The Index value fell from 51.4 in December to 50.0 in January.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales for future conditions.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|51.8, 54.1, 55.5, 54.3, 53.7, 55.3, 58.7, 57.3, 57, 58, 57.9, 59.9, 57.4, 55.1, 55.8, 55.3, 55.3, 56.5, 59.3, 60.3, 60.3, 61, 62.2, 60.3, 57.7, 57.4, 56.6, 56.8, 56.4, 54.2, 53.9, 52.2, 54, 53.4, 52.7, 51.9, 51.9, 51.4, 49.7, 40.6, 35.1, 42.3, 47.9, 49.6, 50.8, 50.3, 50, 52.1, 53.4, 51, 51.7, 51, 52, 52, 55.1, 54.2, 53.2, 52.9, 53.9, 53.4, 54.6, 50, 50, 49.6, 51.7, 51, 50.6, 51, 52.6, 54.6, 51.9, 51.1, 50 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

50.0
January 2023
The Market Growth Index fell to a 10 month low in January. The Index value decreased 1.1 index points between December and January.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|52.2, 54.5, 54.9, 55.4, 55.9, 55.5, 56.5, 58.8, 55.1, 55.3, 56.4, 55.8, 56.2, 54.4, 56.7, 54.7, 54.9, 58.5, 61.9, 55.1, 59, 58.5, 56.1, 54.4, 56.6, 57, 53.8, 54.4, 54.7, 52.7, 54.6, 53.1, 53.6, 52.1, 51.2, 53.9, 52.7, 52, 48.9, 42.5, 34.3, 43.2, 43.6, 48.8, 53.5, 50, 50.7, 51.2, 53.7, 52, 52.3, 51.7, 51.6, 53, 55.1, 54.5, 53.2, 53.3, 55.4, 53.1, 55.3, 53.6, 49.6, 51.8, 52.1, 50, 49.7, 50.3, 53.3, 53.5, 52.8, 51.4, 48.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

48.9
January 2023
The Sales Growth Index value fell to a 29 month low in January, down 2.1 index points.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services made by business during the month.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|53.3, 49.6, 56.3, 56.3, 56.6, 55.3, 53.7, 52.9, 54.6, 55.7, 56, 54.4, 57.6, 54.5, 55.8, 54.4, 56.4, 56.5, 56.7, 59, 59, 57.3, 54.9, 55.9, 55.8, 53.2, 54.9, 55.4, 52, 50, 52.5, 55.3, 53.6, 55.9, 55.8, 54.7, 55.1, 54.6, 51.7, 49.1, 40.1, 43.7, 47.9, 52.8, 52.4, 52.9, 56.5, 56.2, 57.4, 54.4, 56, 55.8, 57.2, 57, 58.4, 57.6, 56.4, 55.1, 59.7, 58.2, 58.2, 58, 57.7, 53.2, 55.2, 56.3, 53.2, 54.5, 56.6, 56, 56.6, 55, 52.8 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

52.8
January 2023
The Prices Charged Index fell 2.1 index points to a 28 month low in January.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|51.2, 50.2, 50.8, 52.7, 50.5, 51.6, 52.8, 50.4, 51.5, 54.4, 54.3, 50.6, 51, 54.5, 55.4, 55.6, 54.5, 56.7, 57.4, 60.3, 59, 61, 61, 54.4, 51.1, 52.1, 51.7, 54.1, 52, 51.5, 49.3, 47.8, 50.8, 50, 50, 51.9, 50.3, 48.9, 44.2, 42.9, 31, 33.8, 36.4, 45.1, 47.6, 43.6, 45.4, 50.4, 46.6, 45, 49.3, 50, 49.7, 52.3, 55.6, 52.1, 51.1, 52.2, 53.5, 51.4, 49.6, 50.7, 48.5, 48.9, 50.7, 45.5, 48.1, 46.6, 45.7, 50.7, 49.4, 50.7, 47.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

47.9
January 2023
The Staffing Levels Index fell into contraction territory in January to a level of 47.9 - below the 50 'no growth' line.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|50.4, 47.3, 49.4, 50, 48.9, 50.7, 53.5, 50, 51.7, 53.2, 54.2, 47.8, 51.3, 52, 52.2, 52.4, 52.3, 54.9, 52.2, 46.2, 53.8, 57.3, 53.7, 52.9, 47.8, 48.9, 50.3, 51.4, 47.3, 49.7, 50.7, 50.9, 48.8, 50.4, 48.4, 51.6, 49.5, 49.4, 40.9, 40.6, 30.6, 33.3, 32.2, 42.7, 42.3, 43.6, 46.1, 47.9, 44, 45, 44.3, 46.6, 49.3, 50, 52.2, 50.7, 46.4, 47.5, 51.6, 46.9, 48.2, 46.4, 45.6, 43.6, 49.3, 48.3, 43.2, 46.6, 48.3, 50.4, 48.4, 49.6, 45.7 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins

45.7
January 2023
Profit Margins continued to fall in January with an index value continuing well below the 50 'no growth' line.
The Profit Margins Index indicates gives insight into the level of profit sales teams are able to achieve and as a consequence the contribution companies can make to the country’s economy.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes






About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.






About the Data

SMI data for the ~USA is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data since 2011 is downloadable for all-sectors in a consistent unadjusted format for 7 key indexes:










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