US Sales Managers Index Stays Positive, but…

…Confidence, Market & Sales Growth Indexes Tumble

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: July 22, 2024

Signs of a setback in US economic growth emerged in July. After a buoyant series of index readings in the second quarter of 2024, July saw a significant trend reversal, particularly in the Business Confidence, and Market Growth Indexes. Whilst modest overall growth appears set to continue, at least in the third quarter of the year, it may be that the negative impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors is slowly working through into economic activity.

Until July many sectors of the American economy seemed to be largely untroubled by the anti-inflationary rises in interest rates, and the growing shadow of disturbing global political change. However, the evidence presented by the July Sales Managers Survey suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may at last be having restraining impact on the "animal spirits" so important to continuing growth in economic activity levels.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Sales Managers Price Index continues to register relatively high monthly readings, suggesting that the dragon of Price Inflation has not yet been entirely slain, but the July reading of the Price Index is well below that of recent quarterly price data averages.

Consequently at least one cut in interest rates in the run up to the November US election appears increasingly likely.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.