US Sales Managers Survey Suggests Significant GDP Growth Will Continue Into the Third Quarter

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: June 17, 2024

The US Sales Managers Survey Results for June reflect a likely acceleration of GDP growth levels seen in previous months of this year. All growth-related Indexes suggest an expectation of continuing modest-to-rapid economic expansion.

Real GDP year-on-year growth in excess of 2% is likely to continue into the second half of 2024.

So far, the great engine that is the American economy seems to be working well, largely untroubled by the anti-inflationary rises in interest rates, or the continuing shadow of disturbing political change globally that may impact negatively on economic growth.

United States: Prices Charged Index Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The evidence presented by the June Sales Managers Survey suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have had at best a very modest restraining impact on economic activity levels to date. However, the Fed's efforts at simultaneously cutting price inflation appear to be working less well. The Sales Managers Price Index continues to register relatively high monthly readings, suggesting that the dragon of Price Inflation has not yet been slain, and big cuts in interest rates are not likely to feature in the run up to the November election.



Sales Managers Index Components



0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|57.7, 58, 59.1, 60.4, 57.9, 57, 54, 55.6, 53.8, 53.9, 53.9, 53, 52.6, 48.6, 41, 38, 45, 48.3, 50.4, 50.8, 49, 49.7, 51.2, 52.3, 51.7, 52.7, 52.4, 54.6, 53.6, 53.9, 52.1, 52.1, 52.2, 55, 54.8, 54.6, 50.7, 50, 50.7, 51, 49.7, 50, 50, 50.7, 53.2, 51.6, 51.4, 50, 50.3, 50.4, 51.4, 50, 50.7, 46.8, 48.3, 51.4, 46.9, 52.4, 51.2, 48.8, 53.4, 54.6, 53.7, 51.2, 50.4, 49.6 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

50.4
June 2024
The Business Confidence Index grew at a slower pace in June.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales managers for future conditions.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|57.4, 56.6, 56.8, 56.4, 54.2, 53.9, 52.2, 54, 53.4, 52.7, 51.9, 51.9, 51.4, 49.7, 40.6, 35.1, 42.3, 47.9, 49.6, 50.8, 50.3, 50, 52.1, 53.4, 51, 51.7, 51, 52, 52, 55.1, 54.2, 53.2, 52.9, 53.9, 53.4, 54.6, 50, 50, 49.6, 51.7, 51, 50.6, 51, 52.6, 54.6, 51.9, 51.1, 50, 53.1, 52.3, 52.8, 50.7, 53.6, 51.1, 53.5, 53.8, 54.9, 55.1, 54.1, 51.3, 54.1, 54.2, 53.3, 53.3, 54.2, 52.5 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

54.2
June 2024
The Market Growth Index increased in June to a three month high.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|57, 53.8, 54.4, 54.7, 52.7, 54.6, 53.1, 53.6, 52.1, 51.2, 53.9, 52.7, 52, 48.9, 42.5, 34.3, 43.2, 43.6, 48.8, 53.5, 50, 50.7, 51.2, 53.7, 52, 52.3, 51.7, 51.6, 53, 55.1, 54.5, 53.2, 53.3, 55.4, 53.1, 55.3, 53.6, 49.6, 51.8, 52.1, 50, 49.7, 50.3, 53.3, 53.5, 52.8, 51.4, 48.9, 54.1, 51.5, 50.7, 50.7, 52.9, 50.7, 53.5, 52.1, 53.8, 53.7, 51.2, 50.8, 53.2, 53.5, 52.5, 52.4, 53.3, 52.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

53.3
June 2024
The Sales Growth Index value inbcreased in June.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services (current month from previous month).
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|53.2, 54.9, 55.4, 52, 50, 52.5, 55.3, 53.6, 55.9, 55.8, 54.7, 55.1, 54.6, 51.7, 49.1, 40.1, 43.7, 47.9, 52.8, 52.4, 52.9, 56.5, 56.2, 57.4, 54.4, 56, 55.8, 57.2, 57, 58.4, 57.6, 56.4, 55.1, 59.7, 58.2, 58.2, 58, 57.7, 53.2, 55.2, 56.3, 53.2, 54.5, 56.6, 56, 56.6, 55, 52.8, 55.8, 56.4, 54.2, 54.8, 55.4, 54.9, 57.6, 54.1, 56.9, 54.1, 53.3, 53.3, 52.9, 52.3, 55.8, 54.5, 55.4, 54.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

55.4
June 2024
The Prices Charged grew at a faster pace in June.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|52.1, 51.7, 54.1, 52, 51.5, 49.3, 47.8, 50.8, 50, 50, 51.9, 50.3, 48.9, 44.2, 42.9, 31, 33.8, 36.4, 45.1, 47.6, 43.6, 45.4, 50.4, 46.6, 45, 49.3, 50, 49.7, 52.3, 55.6, 52.1, 51.1, 52.2, 53.5, 51.4, 49.6, 50.7, 48.5, 48.9, 50.7, 45.5, 48.1, 46.6, 45.7, 50.7, 49.4, 50.7, 47.9, 49.3, 48.1, 52.1, 50.3, 50.4, 47.2, 47.9, 48.3, 48.6, 49.7, 53.3, 46.7, 51.7, 50.4, 49.6, 50.8, 50, 51.2 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

50.0
June 2024
The Staffing Levels Index registered 'no growth' in June.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|48.9, 50.3, 51.4, 47.3, 49.7, 50.7, 50.9, 48.8, 50.4, 48.4, 51.6, 49.5, 49.4, 40.9, 40.6, 30.6, 33.3, 32.2, 42.7, 42.3, 43.6, 46.1, 47.9, 44, 45, 44.3, 46.6, 49.3, 50, 52.2, 50.7, 46.4, 47.5, 51.6, 46.9, 48.2, 46.4, 45.6, 43.6, 49.3, 48.3, 43.2, 46.6, 48.3, 50.4, 48.4, 49.6, 45.7, 45.9, 48.5, 50, 47.3, 50, 49.3, 46.5, 45.9, 46.5, 51.7, 52.9, 49.6, 50.5, 49.6, 49.2, 50.4, 49.6, 48.8 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins

49.6
June 2024
Profit Margins fell in June.
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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.






About the Data

SMI data for the ~USA is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data since 2011 is downloadable for all-sectors in a consistent unadjusted format for 7 key indexes: