US Business Confidence Remains Low in August

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: August 18, 2025

OVERALL PICTURE: The overall Sales Managers Index reflects a modest recovery in business activity in August, with the Index itself now fractionally above the 50 "no growth" line. This is some way from expressing boom times in the US economy but does suggest the possibility of recession in 2025 has receded.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: The US Sales Managers Survey results for August show a bounce back from the bleak July results. In particular Business Confidence has recovered from its near 5-year low July reading but still illustrates a sharp fall in "animal spirits" since the November 2024 Presidential election. The low level of confidence reflects the concerns felt by the sales manager community over the near continual and unforecastable changes in tariff levels with overseas trading partners.

SALES: The Market Growth and Sales Indexes both rose significantly in August, with some respondents indicating that the rise was at least partly in response to previous hesitation in ordering supplies while confidence remained so low.

JOBS: The Jobs Index remains below the 50 "no change " line, with a August Index reading of 47, now some way above its 34-month low of July, but still not indicating significant recovery in the job market.

The Sales Managers data is based on a regular panel (rather than a survey) of executives which tends to vary much less in response rate terms.

In summary, there is little doubt that the continuous stream of edicts pouring out of the US President's office continue to cause uncertainty in the business community on a scale never before seen outside wartime.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.