Asia Facing Demographic Adversity


 
Countries in Asia have historically seen some of the highest fertility rates worldwide. In 1970, South Korea’s rate was more than double the replacement threshold. Today, it is far below that level, meaning that each coming generation will be approximately half as large as the one before it. Similarly, major nations such as China and India have seen dramatic falls to rates which are currently also below the replacement level.

Fertility Rates in Most Populous Asian Countries 1950-2050
Data is ranked on lowest population fertility rates by 2025

Country

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Korea, Rep.

6.06

3.31

1.47

0.67

0.32

China

5.81

3.57

1.63

0.97

0.54

Thailand

6.36

4.36

1.73

1.09

0.49

Japan

3.62

1.92

1.35

1.16

0.88

Vietnam

5.15

5.62

2.03

1.74

0.93

India

5.73

5.20

3.35

1.96

1.40

Philippines

7.13

5.60

3.75

2.00

1.53

Indonesia

5.11

5.03

2.50

2.00

1.28

Nepal

6.06

5.73

3.98

2.03

1.52

Bangladesh

6.37

6.73

3.28

2.06

1.26

Pakistan

6.80

6.81

5.35

3.68

3.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

Country

1950

2000

2025

2050

Korea, Rep.

6.1

1.5

0.7

0.3

China

5.8

1.6

1.0

0.5

Thailand

6.4

1.7

1.1

0.5

Japan

3.6

1.3

1.2

0.9

Vietnam

5.1

2.0

1.7

0.9

India

5.7

3.4

2.0

1.4

Philippines

7.1

3.8

2.0

1.5

Indonesia

5.1

2.5

2.0

1.3

Nepal

6.1

4.0

2.0

1.5

Bangladesh

6.4

3.3

2.1

1.3

Pakistan

6.8

5.4

3.7

3.2

 

 

 

 

 
Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025




Various reasons have been proposed for this vast decline in fertility, such as the availability of contraception and the increase of women in the workplace. Recent studies have shown that sperm counts are declining worldwide, and this seems a fundamental factor in this fall in rates. Due to this, China, Japan, South Korea and Thailand – which are all predicted to face depopulation from now to 2050 – will have not just smaller, but more elderly, demographics. This top-heavy generational pyramid will naturally put great strain on health care and old age support systems, accentuated by the shrinking working-age population.

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