In summary, India appears to be emerging, by some margin, as the fastest moving of the three big growth engines of the global economy. The Sales Managers Indexes suggest that neither China or the USA are likely to match Indian GDP growth in the remainder of 2023.

India's rapid economic growth has already lifted the economy into third place in the international GDP rankings, behind only China and the USA, once its large Informal economy is taken into account. Further continued growth of a similar order will, probably within a decade, bring India's GDP to within striking distance of that of the USA.

There is evidence to suggest that official data does not take sufficient account of the massive problems faced by the very large unofficial shadow economy.

And consequently official estimates of rapid growth in Indian economic activity do not entirely square with the evident and serious continuing problems of unemployment, particularly among the young.

But the "official" non-informal giant Indian economy is clearly on the move again, with Covid problems receding rapidly in the rear view mirror.

Continue reading for more analysis, charts & data. [SUBSCRIBER ONLY]