China’s Coming Population Collapse


 
China has experienced a dramatic fall in fertility rates. With levels already far below replacement, depopulation is imminent. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time.

Decline in Fertility across East Asia 1950-2050
Data ranked on lowest population fertility rates by 2050.

Country

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Korea, Rep.

6.06

3.31

1.47

0.67

0.32

China

5.81

3.57

1.63

0.97

0.54

Thailand

6.36

4.36

1.73

1.09

0.49

Japan

3.62

1.92

1.35

1.16

0.88

Malaysia

6.43

4.50

2.94

1.52

0.98

Vietnam

5.15

5.62

2.03

1.74

0.93

Indonesia

5.11

5.03

2.50

2.00

1.28

Mongolia

5.50

7.07

2.26

2.42

1.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

Country

1950

2000

2025

2050

Korea, Rep.

6.1

1.5

0.7

0.3

China

5.8

1.6

1.0

0.5

Thailand

6.4

1.7

1.1

0.5

Japan

3.6

1.3

1.2

0.9

Malaysia

6.4

2.9

1.5

1.0

Vietnam

5.1

2.0

1.7

0.9

Indonesia

5.1

2.5

2.0

1.3

Mongolia

5.5

2.3

2.4

1.3

 

 

 

 

 
Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025




China’s childbearing levels are currently 50% below the replacement rate. This means that each coming generation will be approximately half as large as the one before it. Long-term, one projection sees China’s population decline by 48% by the end of this century.

This will completely shift China’s age structure. For example, the oldest generations will more than triple from 2020 to 2050. These groups will naturally put great strain on the health care and old age support systems accentuated by the shrinking working-age population.
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