Dramatic Demographic Decline in East Asia


 
East Asia has been the primary driving force in global growth over the recent decades, but rapidly falling fertility rates suggest the region may cede its lead over the coming years. Childbearing levels across the region have been, on average, below the replacement rate since 2010. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time.

Decline in Fertility Across East Asia 1950-2050
Data ranked on lowest population fertility rates by 2025.

Country

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Korea, Rep.

6.06

3.31

1.47

0.67

0.32

China

5.81

3.57

1.63

0.97

0.54

Thailand

6.36

4.36

1.73

1.09

0.49

Japan

3.62

1.92

1.35

1.16

0.88

Malaysia

6.43

4.50

2.94

1.52

0.98

Vietnam

5.15

5.62

2.03

1.74

0.93

Indonesia

5.11

5.03

2.50

2.00

1.28

Mongolia

5.50

7.07

2.26

2.42

1.34

Country

1950

2000

2025

2050

Korea, Rep.

6.1

1.5

0.7

0.3

China

5.8

1.6

1.0

0.5

Thailand

6.4

1.7

1.1

0.5

Japan

3.6

1.3

1.2

0.9

Malaysia

6.4

2.9

1.5

1.0

Vietnam

5.1

2.0

1.7

0.9

Indonesia

5.1

2.5

2.0

1.3

Mongolia

5.5

2.3

2.4

1.3
Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025




For Japan, this low fertility rate has been present since 1970. For countries such as South Korea the decline has been more recent but very rapid, with fertility falling to one-sixth of its 1970 level today. As a result, South Korea is projected to have childbearing levels 50% below the replacement level. This means that each coming generation will be approximately half as large as the one before it.
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