World economic activity continues to grow when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes, in the world's three largest economies (China, the USA and India).

For most recent decades these countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of global growth, so if their survey numbers are looking good, prospects for the world as a whole are unlikely to be too far behind.

In August, the Sales Managers growth related Indexes remained consistent with continuing modest expansion in global economic activity. Of particular note, the Sales and Market related components of the Global Sales Managers Index are now both positive and rising. However there has been a distinct downward trend over recent months in the forward-looking Business Confidence Indexes, now looking more threatening with a significant fall in the overall Global numbers in August.

These data provide a good indication that the world is likely to avoid, at least for the remainder of the third quarter, the much-predicted worldwide recession brought on by rising interest rates. Nevertheless, Sales Managers recent loss of confidence in the future suggests the fourth quarter of the year may bring Global economic growth down to somewhat lower levels, potentially tipping into recession in 2025.