India Sales Managers Index at 37 Month High in April:

India Sales Managers Index at 37 Month High in April

New April data for the India Sales Managers Survey is starting to reflect economic growth of a high order.

Recovery from the disaster of the global pandemic is now well underway, although from an employment viewpoint, the scenario is still very much one of two steps forward, one step back.

But the Business Confidence, Market Growth and Sales Growth Indexes are all reflecting renewed vigour, suggesting GDP growth in Quarter 2 could well be higher than in most other constituents of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

India sales growth at 37 month high in April
Sales Growth Index, diffusion index: 50 = no growth

India Sales Managers Index at 37 Month High in April

Two big question marks remain.

The April India Price Index rose again to the far from desirable level of 55.2. Price Inflation is obviously still very much alive in the Indian economy.

And many companies are still very cautious in relation to staffing levels. The Jobs Index remains stubbornly short of the 50 "no change" level in April. Clearly not a good sign. Confidence needs to rise still higher before significant job creation will take place.

In summary, India appears to be emerging from the tragedy of Covid. There is evidence to suggest that official data does not ( almost by definition ) take sufficient account of the massive problems faced by the very large unofficial shadow economy. And consequently official estimates of rapid growth in Indian economic activity do not entirely square with the evident and serious continuing problems of unemployment, particularly among the young.

In summary, the giant Indian economy is really on the move again. But has some way to go before it reaches again the confidence levels seen pre-Covid.

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