The Slow Death of Global Demand for Almost Everything: Big population declines in many countries are now inevitable. - Producers of many goods and services will suffer.

The Slow Death of Global Demand for Almost Everything

Big population declines in many countries are now inevitable.
Producers of many goods and services will suffer.

Many of the world’s most important countries are projected to face significant declines in their populations by 2040 and further falls thereafter. This is due to many years of falling fertility levels. As a consequence, consumer demand for many products and services is likely to shrink.

Countries with Significant Depopulation
Note: Ranked by percentage decline by 2040.

Country	Population 2025, Millions	Population 2040, Millions	Decline by 2040, Millions	Decline Percentage
Japan	122.9	108.3	14.6	11.9%
Taiwan	23.1	20.5	2.6	11.3%
Poland	38.1	33.9	4.2	10.9%
Hong Kong	7.4	6.6	0.8	10.8%
Greece	9.9	9.0	0.9	9.7%
Italy	59.0	53.3	5.7	9.7%
Korea, Rep.	51.5	47.1	4.4	8.7%
China	1,412.9	1,292.0	120.9	8.6%
Czechia	10.6	9.7	0.9	8.0%
Germany	83.9	77.7	6.2	7.4%

Country	Population 2025, Millions	Population 2040, Millions	Decline Percentage
Japan	122.9	108.3	11.9%
Taiwan	23.1	20.5	11.3%
Poland	38.1	33.9	10.9%
Hong Kong	7.4	6.6	10.8%
Greece	9.9	9.0	9.7%
Italy	59.0	53.3	9.7%
Korea, Rep.	51.5	47.1	8.7%
China	1,412.9	1,292.0	8.6%
Czechia	10.6	9.7	8.0%
Germany	83.9	77.7	7.4%

Source: World Economics, 2026

Japan is projected to lose an unprecedented near 12% of its total population by 2040. China is projected to shrink by 121 million people. This rate of depopulation, as a result of low fertility rates (rather than famine or war), is historically unprecedented.

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