Thought for the day

The Future is Asian


 
17 April 2024
 
The world economy has radically changed over the past decade. The Asian share of global GDP has risen from about 45%, and is likely to be around 58% by 2030.

Percentage Share of Global GDP: 2030
Using 5-year CAGR for projections
The Future is Asian
* GDP in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data.

Today, the Asian share of global GDP is over 54%, whereas Europe and North America combined now account for less: about 33%. An extraordinary change in a remarkably short space of time. Clearly mostly a result of the furious growth seen in China and India over the period, but mirrored by rapid growth in many other Asian nations.

If GDP growth differentials between the continents continue at anything like the rate established between 2018 and 2023, Asian GDP is likely to account for around 58% of global GDP by 2030. Evidence on current economic growth is less certain that usual, after the Covid pandemic, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine making a mess of economic trend data. There is evidence that the great growth engines of the past decade - the Chinese and Indian economies - have slowed down. However few economists believe that the difference in growth rates seen in the years prior to Covid, between the emerging economies of Asia, and the developed western markets, will disappear, particularly in view of the current political problems of America, and the uncertainty released by the vicious war launched in Europe by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

In summary, on trends visible to date, the rise of Asia is unlikely to halt anytime soon.
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