Over the whole of the first quarter of 2024 the overall Manufacturing Sector Sales Managers Index remained below the crucial 50 index level, indicating declining output. In contrast the Services Sector overall Sales Managers Index remained at an average index reading over the first quarter of 52.4, indicating real growth in output. The now dominant Services sector's resilience provided enough impetus to ensure that the combined Manufacturing + Services sector Index remained over the 50 no growth level, with a Quarter 1 reading of 50.9, indicating overall albeit modest growth in the Chinese economy.

The new Sales Managers survey results for April show the overall Manufacturing Sales Index at a 5 month high, and now very close to the 50 "flatlining" level. This means that, despite falling prices keeping sales values relatively low (the Sales Managers Prices Index remains well below 50), actual physical production is ramping up once more.

The Services Sector Sales Managers Survey results show a much brighter picture, with the Sales Growth Index up at a 9 year high. Even the Services Price Index is up at a 7 month high, and now far from deflation with an Index reading of close to 53.

Adding the two parts of the economy together to get an overall view of the State of China, the numbers start to look much more in-line with official forecasts of 5% growth in 2024. All Indexes are now at or way beyond recent month highs, and the all sector overall Sales Managers Index is on an 11 month high. Unless recent data has been in some way influenced by unseen forces (which seems unlikely - but this is China!) it appears that the Chinese economy is once again poised to exceed market expectations.
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