World Economics

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Cost benefit analysis
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Estimating Loss-in-Output as a Cost of a Financial Crisis
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Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2019
The global financial crisis caused a huge loss of economic output, depletion of financial wealth, extended unemployment, psychological consequences and other significant costs. A quantitative exploration of modelling loss-in-output as a cost of financial crisis using macroeconomic indicators is useful in understanding the impact of a crisis. The conservative estimates for India suggest that, over a period of ten years, a financial crisis can cause a cumulative loss-in-output ranging from 48% of GDP to 59% of GDP after discounting at 0.025 and 0.07 respectively. Intermediate values are also explored. Estimating loss-in-output in terms of GDP simplifies estimation of the impact of financial crises. Policymakers and regulators must be more prudent and alert in sensing the early indicators of a financial crisis and act swiftly in containing its perils.
The Comparative Analysis on the Population Control Policies in China and India
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Min-kyung, KIM, World Economics, March 2019
Population is a source of a nations’ strength and national security, but some overpopulated countries in Asia are trying to lower their population growth, even implementing population control policies. This paper conducts a comparative study of China and India to explore the effectiveness of their population control policies, and its findings suggest that education can be one of the strongest methods to curb the population explosion, reducing its side effects by giving Kerala case. This study suggests that further attention must be given to more cases in China and India related to the correlation between the level of education and population growth. Also, the case of Kerala will be needed to be researched more in-depth and yield more concrete recommendations to facilitate an added value to this field.
Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data
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Amey Sapre & Rajeswari Sengupta, World Economics, December 2017
This paper studies constant price growth estimates of India’s annual GDP data in order to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistics Office. The use of high-frequency indicators to prepare initial estimates overstates the growth of the economy, although at the aggregate level the difference between initial estimates and final revisions is low. At the sectoral level the extent of revision for almost all sectors is large and the magnitude and direction of the revision is unpredictable. The Central Statistical Office must address issues in data quality and revisions by (i) adopting a comprehensive revision policy, (ii) supplying information and data on high frequency indicators and (iii) adopting revision metrics to assess the quality of estimates.
The Power of Price Indexes
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Raymond Cheung and Mike Waterson
World Economics, March 2011
Price indexes are the most important of all economic indicators simply because they are the tool used to calculate the real size, speed and direction of all forms of economic activity. Price indexes are compiled almost everywhere, but with major differences in method and sampling procedures. Some methods and procedures have led to significant errors. Even in the case of a country as advanced as Japan, critics have calculated that imperfections in method have led to a rate of price inflation around 1.8% per year above the level a true cost of living index would have shown. Further research undertaken by World Economics has attempted to make estimates for changes in discounting and promotional practices at the retail level. The conclusion is that, in reality, the overestimation of price changes by the Japanese CPI in recent years may well have been in excess of 2% per annum, and could have been significantly more. Different CPI assumptions change economic growth estimates dramatically. Using World Economics estimates, adding in a minimum figure for marketing and retail changes seen in recent years suggests, contrary to official data, that Japanese consumption growth exceeded that of the US.
What a Consumer Price Index Can’t Do
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Ralph Turvey, World Economics, September 2004
A monthly consumer price index traces changes in the monthly cost of a year’s consumption using a sample of prices. But in some months the prices that can be sampled will temporarily exclude some of the products that were bought in the base year, Christmas trees providing a textbook example. Worse still, it becomes permanently impossible to observe prices for sampled products that have been completely superseded. There are methods for dealing with these two problems, but they leave serious and irremediable defects in the index.
Some Proposed Methodological Developments for the UK Retail Prices Index
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Mick Silver, World Economics, March 2003
The Retail Prices Index (RPI) is one of the UK’s most important macroeconomic indicators, as well as being used for indexation/adjustments for inflation to wages and benefits. This paper argues that the dynamic changes in product markets and consumers’ responses to price changes need to be incorporated into the RPI if it is to effectively measure changes in the cost of living. The quite positive and innovative work undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is acknowledged. However, the basis of the RPI, in measuring the price changes of a matched, fixed basket of goods, is considered inappropriate to modern markets. Some proposals are made.
The Black Economy - Benefit frauds or tax evaders?
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Jim Thomas, World Economics, March 2000
One answer to the question "How Rich are We?" is to compare levels of National Income either across countries or for a single country over time. However, the relevance of this approach depends on how accurately National Income measures the output of goods and services of a country. While it is difficult to measure, the Black Economy represents the output of goods and services that is not generally captured in the National Income Accounts. This article discusses the problems of measuring the size of the Black Economy and speculates on the questions of who is involved and how. The relative importance of Tax Evasion versus Benefit Fraud is discussed.

Displaying: 1-7 of 7