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How to Increase your Country’s GDP
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World Economics, October 2019
Easily, Cheaply and Legitimately
Ratings of GDP Accuracy in Asia
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World Economics, October 2019
The quality of economic data in the Asia Pacific region is very variable. New Zealand, Australia and Hong Kong publish consistently good quality data, ranking high by international standards. There are significant quality issues with data produced in Vietnam, the Philippines and Pakistan. And at the extreme end of the scale, data produced in Cambodia and Myanmar is likely to be of little value in describing prevailing economic conditions.
How GDP Data Quality Ratings Are Produced
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World Economics, October 2019
World Economics has developed the Global GDP Data Quality Ratings to review the utility of official GDP data of individual countries.
Data Quality Rating: GDP China
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World Economics, September 2019
The quality of GDP data in China is improving, and up-to-date in many respects but is still some way from good quality.
Ratings of GDP Accuracy in Africa
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World Economics, June 2019
The quality of economic data in Africa is very variable. Rwanda and South Africa publish consistently good quality data, ranking high by international standards. There are significant quality issues with data produced in Nigeria, Ghana and Tanzania. And at the extreme end of the scale, data produced in the Republic of Congo and Madagascar is likely to be of little value in describing prevailing economic conditions.
Ratings of GDP Accuracy in Europe
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World Economics, June 2019
The quality of economic data in Europe is very variable. Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Germany publish consistently good quality data, ranking high by international standards. There are sizeable quality issues with data produced in Eastern Europe. And at the lower end of the scale, data produced in Moldova and Georgia is likely to be of least value in describing prevailing economic conditions.
Ratings of GDP Accuracy in the Middle East
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World Economics, June 2019
The quality of economic data in the Middle East is very variable. Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia publish fair quality data, ranking high by international standards. There are significant quality issues with data produced in Kuwait, Iran and Yemen. And at the extreme end of the scale, data produced in Jordan and Syria is likely to be of little value in describing prevailing economic conditions.
Global GDP Data Ratings
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World Economics, June 2019
There is no summary available for this paper.
A Modest Challenge to GDP Reforms
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Mitsuhiko Iyoda, World Economics, June 2019
This paper explores the importance and possibility of GDP reform by examining the weaknesses of the current GDP concept. The GDP concept itself involves flawed metrics; there are more effective measures of economic and societal well-being. Here we limit our argument to economic well-being. The weaknesses of GDP can be broadly divided into two primary categories: market workability and the GDP framework. We present four types of GDP reform, among which, we consider further, is a modest improvement on current GDP. If not dealt with, the misleading aspects of GDP are likely to produce a misguided economic growth strategy and reduce the likelihood of a ‘positive sum’ result.
National Output as Interest on National Capital
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John Hartwick, World Economics, June 2019
Current national output can be consider as deriving from a collection of capital goods, including a natural capital good. A model is created which considers Net National Product as interest on capital in the economy: a new approach which touches in a non-trivial way on green national accounting. One important implication is that trading nation draws in part on the capital, including natural capital, of its trading partners and exports in part some of its own capital in its exports. It is also necessary to incorporate pollution spillovers Net National Product which is a hugely vexing issue.
What GDP Methodology Has To Do With Economic Convergence
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Jacob Assa & Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven, World Economics, May 2019
Have developing countries converged on advanced countries?
Ratings of GDP Accuracy in the Americas
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World Economics, May 2019
The quality of economic data in North and South America is very variable. The United States Canada and Chile publish consistently good quality data, ranking high by international standards. There are significant quality issues with data produced in Bolivia, Honduras, and Paraguay. And at the extreme end of the scale, data produced in Venezuela and Haiti is likely to be of little value in describing prevailing economic conditions.
Measuring Illegal Activities in the National Accounts
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Brian Sturgess, World Economics, June 2018
Until 2014 the only illegal activity measured in the UK National Accounts by the Office of National Statistics was the smuggling of alcohol and tobacco. The European System of National Accounts 2010 requires statistical bodies to measure consensual illegal economic activities such as drug consumption and prostitution. In 2014 the first estimates measured the contribution of illegal drugs and prostitution at 2009 prices to UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at just under £10 billion. The estimates are based on a flawed methodology using survey data while private sector figures suggest that the contribution of the cannabis market alone to GDP may be over three times the official value of £828 million .
Debt, Economic Growth and Data Adequacy
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Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2018
The effects of government debt on economic growth has become of immense importance in the backdrop of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and Reinhart & Rogoff’s related research. This study is based on a sizeable dataset which extends the horizon of analysis to country groupings and makes it inclusive of economic, political, and regional diversities. The study overcomes issues related to data adequacy, coverage of countries, heterogeneity, endogeneity, and non-linear relationships by conducting a battery of robustness tests. An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is found to be associated with a reduction in average growth, but the relationship is nonlinear.
Debunking the Relevance of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio
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Arturo C. Porzecanski, World Economics, March 2018
Historical experience does not confirm the simplistic notion that the heavier the burden of the public debt relative to GDP, the greater is the risk that governments will encounter debt-servicing difficulties. In 25 government defaults that occurred during 1998-2017, the pre-default debt-to-GDP ratios ranged from a very low of 27% (Ecuador in 2008) to a very high of 236% (Nicaragua in 2003), with a sample median of 79%. As ratios of government debt rise, some societies manage to deliver more responsible fiscal behaviour. Low debt ratios, on the other hand, often mask dangerous currency or maturity mismatches, as well as contingent liabilities, capable of suddenly impairing banks and governments. The demand for government bonds can behave unpredictably, and governments with low or high debt ratios can suddenly find themselves cut off from needed financing. Official institutions like the IMF, European Commission, and World Bank have done themselves and their member states a great disfavour by obsessing about debt ratios which do not predict fiscal outcomes.
Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data
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Amey Sapre & Rajeswari Sengupta, World Economics, December 2017
This paper studies constant price growth estimates of India’s annual GDP data in order to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistics Office. The use of high-frequency indicators to prepare initial estimates overstates the growth of the economy, although at the aggregate level the difference between initial estimates and final revisions is low. At the sectoral level the extent of revision for almost all sectors is large and the magnitude and direction of the revision is unpredictable. The Central Statistical Office must address issues in data quality and revisions by (i) adopting a comprehensive revision policy, (ii) supplying information and data on high frequency indicators and (iii) adopting revision metrics to assess the quality of estimates.
Measuring GDP in Fragile States
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Barbro Hexeberg & Jose Pablo Valdes Martinez, World Economics, December 2017
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is central to measuring economic performance and productivity, and monitoring fiscal and monetary policies, as well as changes in poverty and shared prosperity. Compiling GDP in accordance with internationally agreed definitions and rules is a complex and data-intensive task, but it is especially challenging in fragile countries. Data are often lacking, of poor quality, or out of date. Much economic activity takes place outside the formal economy, and measuring real growth is more difficult for countries facing armed conflict or natural disasters. But fragile states need accurate measures of GDP, because their economic losses are commonly evaluated in terms of GDP prior to the design and implementation of any mitigation policies.
Measuring the Share of Labour in GDP
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Michael Grömling, World Economics, December 2017
There is a view that increasing inequalities in advanced economies are responsible for growth problems and political polarisation. A new impetus has been injected into the analysis of macroeconomic income distribution since if capital’s share is rising this has implications for the personal distribution of income. An international comparison of data from advanced countries does not reveal any widespread or consistent decrease in labour’s share for the past quarter of a century. No pattern is discernible and a number of statistical limitations and data issues need to be taken into account when interpreting the functional distribution of income.
Debt to GDP Ratio
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Brian Sturgess, World Economics, November 2017
Use with Care
How Accurate Are the National Balance Sheets for China?
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James L. Chan, World Economics, September 2017
The accuracy of data on China’s national balance sheets has attracted much less attention than that of the Gross Domestic Product reports. China’s Bureau of National Statistics has not released official national balance sheets, but two Chinese research teams have produced estimates for recent years. A detailed analysis of these reports by the author reveals varying degrees of discrepancies for the whole Chinese economy and its components, and for different types of assets and liabilities. The System of National Accounts was claimed by researchers as a common framework, but non-standard classifications and disclosures of assets and liabilities from diverse data sources mean that many issues must be resolved before China’s wealth can be measured accurately.

Displaying: 1-20 of 48
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