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Measuring Modern Business Investment: A Case Study for Germany
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Michael Grömling, World Economics, March 2020
An extended concept for intangible investment does not lead to additional investment momentum in the case of Germany. This corresponds to experiences with former extension of investments in national accounts. Also, growth in real GDP and the related labour productivity dynamics are not higher when a broader definition of investment in the form of intangibles is applied. Even if the investment processes are defined beyond the measurement concept for intangibles established by Corrado, Hulten and Sichel, there are no fundamentally different findings for German investment dynamics based on a special company survey. However, these findings should not be misunderstood as suggesting there is no need for action in terms of statistical measurement. Extended concepts and estimates signal for Germany considerable level effects of a more broadly defined investment concept.
Measuring Macroeconomic Performance Using a Composite Index
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Julian Gough, World Economics, September 2018
Large quantities of economic data, varying in accuracy and reliability and subject to later revision, are continually produced and published so interpretation using only one data source is subject to risk. The complex world of data can be simplified by combining different measures of economic performance—economic growth, unemployment and inflation into a single composite index. A composite index of cross-sectional data relating to the economic performance of all of the European Union in 2017 puts Ireland, Romania and Malta in the top three positions, while Germany is ranked 12th. Tracking the UK with the composite index using time-series data shows the impact of the financial crisis in 2008–09 with a gradual improvement in performance which peaks in 2015.
Offshoring and the Labour Share in Germany and US
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Deborah Winkler & William Milberg, World Economics, December 2015
Despite broad public concern with the effect of offshoring on inequality, there is scant research. The authors shift the focus to the effect of offshoring on the labour share in value added. Regression analysis for a sample of 14 OECD countries in 21 manufacturing sectors covering the period 1995 to 2008 reveals that the effects of offshoring on the labour share are negative. They also show that different policy regimes with regard to labour markets, education and innovation, and trade liberalisation mediate these effects whilst contrasting the experiences of Germany and the U.S. where the manufacturing labour share decline was particularly strong.
Bias in the ‘Proportionality Assumption’ Used in the Measurement of Offshoring
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Deborah Winkler & William Milberg, World Economics, December 2012
Most studies of offshoring rely on a ‘proportionality assumption’ where every sector is assumed to import each material and service input in the same proportion as its economy-wide use. We assess the bias resulting from this assumption. Since Germany collects imported inputs directly, we are able to compare the direct and proxy measures, where the proxy is constructed with the proportionality assumption. The proxy fails to accurately capture the variation in services offshoring intensity because – as a result of the proportionality assumption – it is strongly influenced by the variation in demand for domestic inputs. Estimation of the effect of offshoring on labour demand for 35 manufacturing sectors in Germany over 1995–2006 shows that the direct and proxy-based measures of services offshoring give very different results. The implication goes beyond the case of Germany: researchers must be cautious about drawing policy conclusions from estimates using the proxy of offshoring.
Are National Accounts Revisions Harmful for Historical Comparisons?
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Dieter Brümmerhoff & Michael Grömling, World Economics, December 2012
Revisions of national accounts affect economic analysis, calling into question theoretical findings based on earlier data. Revisions to German national accounts have resulted in a markedly higher GDP in absolute terms and a lower volatility in macroeconomic production. According to the revised data, recessions have been less pronounced. Moreover, less volatility in production has changed income accounts and, above all, reduced the fluctuations in property and entrepreneurial income. The stylised fact of declining property and entrepreneurial incomes during recessions in West Germany from 1970 to 1991 has vanished into thin air as a result of the revisions of 2002 and 2006.
From Big Macs to iMacs
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Jonathan Haskel & Holger Wolf, World Economics, June 2000
The authors review recent international price comparisons to examine the veracity of claims about “rip-off Britain”. They reach three conclusions. First, methodologically, the data requirements for a meaningful price comparison are very demanding and most of the evidence does not meet these standards. Second, price differences within countries seem, in many cases, to be just as high if not higher than price differences between countries. Third, for most goods, the difference between the UK and the rest of the EU seems to be minor relative to the difference between the EU and the United States. The real puzzle is the comparatively high prices in the EU.
Poles Apart
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Paul Gregg, Kirstine Hansen & Jonathan Wadsworth, World Economics, June 2000
Analysis of labour market performance using individual level data can reach radically different conclusions to those provided by a household-based analysis, using the same source of information. In Britain and other OECD countries the number of households without access to earned income has grown despite rising employment rates. Built around a comparison of the actual jobless rate in households with that which would occur if work were randomly distributed, the authors show that work is becoming increasingly polarised in many countries. Changing household structure can only account for a minority of the rise in workless households, so that labour market failure is the dominant explanation. Polarisation of work will have important welfare and budgetary consequences for any country.
The Black Economy - Benefit frauds or tax evaders?
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Jim Thomas, World Economics, March 2000
One answer to the question "How Rich are We?" is to compare levels of National Income either across countries or for a single country over time. However, the relevance of this approach depends on how accurately National Income measures the output of goods and services of a country. While it is difficult to measure, the Black Economy represents the output of goods and services that is not generally captured in the National Income Accounts. This article discusses the problems of measuring the size of the Black Economy and speculates on the questions of who is involved and how. The relative importance of Tax Evasion versus Benefit Fraud is discussed.



Displaying: 1-8 of 8