World economic activity grew very modestly in June when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes for the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India). Part of the reason for the low level of global growth stems from the problems evident in the USA.
Business Confidence in America has collapsed since the election of President Trump. The chart below, showing Business Confidence in China, the US and India, illustrates the impact of the US President's actions in his first half year in office.
For most recent decades these three countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of total global growth, and in reality, probably significantly more, as the "rest of the world" in this case includes many countries with less reliable and often exaggerated data. But given the importance of the USA, the trend of US Business Confidence (the growth inspiring "animal spirits") doesn't suggest the likelihood of a significant rise in global growth over the second half of 2025.
The overall Global Sales Managers Index for June was derived from a good headline performance from India, with an overall SMI reading of 52.5, an improved but still modest contribution from China (an SMI reading of 51.2), and a negative contribution from the USA (an SMI reading of 48.8).
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
Global SMI data is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.
Monthly data for 8 years is downloadable in a consistent unadjusted format for the 6 key indexes: