Prospects for the Chinese Economy Brighten

June data shows strong growth in the Services Sector

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: June 19, 2025

Despite the Trump tariff threats and deeds, Business Confidence in both the Chinese Manufacturing and Services sectors stayed very positive in June. The overall China Business Confidence Index reading was 53.7, not so far from a 10-year high. This is in stark comparison with plunging Confidence levels registered in June in the USA (a recession inducing reading of 46.2). Confidence was high in both the China Manufacturing and Services sectors, but particularly in the latter, now at a 39-month high.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Business Confidence Index is particularly important as the question asked of panel members relates to their confidence in the future course of business activity, not its present level. Sales Managers, because of the very nature of their work tend to be more attuned to the future. They are in general very aware of levels of contracts they expect to be signed shortly, as well as current order books, with the potential personal impact of likely sales levels on bonuses linked to sales. Economists often refer to levels of Business Confidence as "animal spirits", reflecting the great importance of Confidence on future levels of investment and employment.

The overall message regarding China must remain one of caution, as Manufacturing data remains subdued. Both the overall Manufacturing Index and the Market Growth and Jobs Indexes remain underwater ( Index readings of less than 50, the level distinguishing economic growth from recession.

The big question remains : can the world's great growth engine of the past three decades move back towards its previously central role in sponsoring global economic expansion. Or will tariff wars with the USA keep China's growth and its influence on the world economy more restricted than has been the case for many years.

Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.