The Sales Managers Index: United States of America and China

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
Released: 23 November 2020

China Economy Roars Back in November.
Business Confidence at 5 year high. in sharp contrast the US Economy Stagnates and Inflation Rises Rapidly

November Sales data presents a striking contrast between a resurgent China and a US economy mired in stagflation. 

The China All-Sector Business Confidence Index is at a 65 month high, the year-on-year Sales Growth Index is at a 13 month high and the Jobs Index at a 61 month high. 

In sharp contrast, the US Business Confidence index languishes below the 50 ('no growth') line, and fell further in November, partly as a result of the bizarre post election Trump "I've won" activities. The crucial Jobs Index remains way below 50, reflecting endless staff lay-offs rather than job market growth. 

Perhaps most worrying of all, while price inflation remains low in China, the US Price Index rose very sharply to a figure indicative of rapid inflation. Various respected economists have discussed recently the possibility that inflation may be back much sooner than expected. These numbers could be the canary in the coalmine...

China and USA: Business Confidence Index

The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales for future conditions.


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