Released: 30 September 2021
Sales Managers Global Growth Survey
USA, China and India - September
The Global Growth Index, bringing together data for the three great economic growth drivers of economic activity (in pre Covid days), shows economic activity clearly returning in two out of the three countries . But overall still some considerable way below previous levels of growth. The most negative elements of the September survey are seen in the Jobs and Price Indexes, both of which remain at levels that if maintained would be dangerous for economic stability.
In September the Sales, Market Growth and Business Confidence Indexes all remained close to post Covid highs, but fell back a little from the levels recorded in August. Some of this fall back was clearly related to supply chain issues now affecting many countries and industries.
The first big negative remains the Staffing Index which came in at a meagre 50.3 reading, suggesting that jobs growth globally has a long way to go to return to pre Covid "normal" levels.
A second warning signal came once more from the Prices Index which continues to show an increasing level of inflation in all three of the worlds most significant economies, reflecting another very significant jump in prices of many kinds in September. Supply chain shortages provide one reason for increasing prices at present, and the impact of governments everywhere opening the money taps to attempt to preserve economic activity in the face of Covid, provide another.
As commerce starts to return to some semblance of normality over the next few months, it should become easier to judge whether the prolonged and gigantic episode of money creation has sparked a more profound period of dangerous price inflation. Recent comments by some of the worlds most important central bankers suggest a reversal in monetary policy will not be long delayed.
Global Sales Growth Index
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