The US Sales Managers Survey results for June look bleak. They reflect the chaos produced by the erratic economic policy changes seen over the past few months, but now go further and suggest the US economy is tipping into recession.
SALES: The Market Growth Index continues its long decline, and in June is now at a 17-month low, a reflection of general conditions faced by sales managers. The Sales Growth Index recovered slightly in June from its giant fall since November, but remains an uncomfortable 5.1 Index points below the November reading.
JOBS: The Jobs Index is now way below the 50 "no change" line, with a June Index reading of 46.2, over 6 points down on the November figure, and now at a 33% month low. Official US survey data shows a less dismal picture, but are based on results stemming from a much lower survey response rate than was the case pre-Covid, and therefore are necessarily less reliable. The Sales Managers data is based on a regular panel (rather than a survey) of executives which tends to vary much less in response rate terms.
PRICES: The danger of inflation persists with a June Price Inflation reading of 55.5, much too high for comfort, particularly in view of the fact that Sales Managers antenna are rather more sensitive to price changes than those of many other occupations, as they see customer reactions to price changes at close quarters.
SUMMARY: The Sales Managers Index, made up of aggregated data from panelists on all sub-indexes, doesn't brighten the picture. The Headline Sales Managers Index is down once again at a 56 month low of 48.8.
Results for any one month can be affected by a variety of factors, but the cohesion of these results does suggest the US economy is now suffering from a severe fall in confidence relating to the future, or "animal spirits" as economists sometimes refer to the invisible but important threads that increase or depress economic activity.
In summary, there is little doubt that the continuous stream of edicts pouring out of the US President's office are causing uncertainty in the business community on a scale never before seen outside wartime. Unless the uncertainty diminishes, a recession in economic activity is likely to result.
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
SMI data for the ~USA is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.
Monthly data since 2011 is downloadable for all-sectors in a consistent unadjusted format for 6 key indexes: