US Business Confidence Continues to Fall Amid 5-Months of Job Cuts

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: May 20, 2026

The US Headline Sales Managers Index continued below the growth threshold in May, with hiring intentions at their weakest in almost a year. Business Confidence continued to fall in May with a reading of 48.4 and sitting well below its December peak of 51.8. Staffing Levels remained in contraction at 49.2, a reading that has been below or barely at 50.0 for the majority of the past twelve months, pointing to sustained reluctance among US firms to expand headcount.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Prices Charged Index is the only bright spot in this month’s SMI, the level eased to 53.1 after spiking at 56.8 and 57.0 in March and April, suggesting some moderation in pricing pressure as businesses adapt to international trade disruptions.

The data presents a consistent and sobering picture. Across almost every sub-index, May 2026 readings are weaker than six months ago, and the two that matter most for economic dynamism, Business Confidence and Staffing Levels, are both in contraction territory. Sales are still being made, but firms are neither hiring to fulfil future demand nor expressing confidence that conditions will improve. If recent trends persist, the US economy is quite likely to remain in a state of stagnation into the summer, and the data latest suggests considerably less vigour than the late-2025 picture implied.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.