Global Economy Maintains Steady Growth in October


 
The Global Sales Managers Index (SMI) for October reached 51.5, signalling modest global economic expansion. A surge in the Prices Charged Index to 53.5, a three-month high, underscores intensifying cost pressures as the primary driver, fuelled by trade disruptions and input cost increases. Steady sales and recovering staffing levels support growth, though cautious confidence and ongoing geo-political challenges persist. The Global SMI data reflects a resilient economy navigating US-China trade tensions and the US government shutdown.

Global Headline Sales Managers Index – October 2025
Diffusion Index: 50 = ’no growth’
Global Economy Maintains Steady Growth in October


Business Confidence: At 52.5, confidence remains cautious, reflecting trade uncertainties. India and China sustain optimism, while US sentiment (51.4) is tempered by domestic and trade challenges.

Sales Growth: The Sales Growth Index increased to 53.1, showing steady demand. China’s strong sales (54.3) and India’s consistent performance drive this, offsetting softer US demand (51.4).

Prices Charged: The Prices Charged Index rose to 53.5, indicating increasing inflationary pressures. Higher costs from US tariffs on Chinese goods and elevated energy and food prices are being passed to consumers, particularly in manufacturing and retail. This aligns with global core inflation trends around 2.9% year-over-year, posing risks to demand if sustained.

Regional Contributions:
  • US: Lags with fragile growth (SMI: 51.0), constrained by the government shutdown and tariff-driven cost increases. Modest sales (51.4) and staffing gains (50.5) limit its global impact.
  • China: Contributes significantly through manufacturing strength (SMI: 51.1) and solid services SMI (51.4). Strong sales (54.3) reflect domestic stimulus, despite tariff pressures impacting confidence (52.5).
  • India: Leads global growth with strong sales and market indices, driven by infrastructure spending and consumer demand. Its robust performance continues to anchor global expansion.
Summary: October’s Global SMI of 51.5 reflects steady growth, led by solid sales growth and rising prices charged. China and India drive momentum, while the US contributes minimally amid trade and domestic challenges. Rising costs pose a key risk to sustained global growth.


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