Thought for the day

Global Growth Engines Idle in January

But China's manufacturers may change the plot sooner than expected


 
8 May 2024
 
The threat of global recession in 2023 remains evident in the January Sales Managers Survey data.

All growth related Global Indexes registered levels just above or just below the 50 "no-growth" line.

Chinese Manufacturing Sales Growth Index
Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change')
Global Growth Engines Idle in January


The US economic activity Indexes all fell in January, and India's growth related indexes all took a step backwards.

However the gloom was somewhat lifted by the unexpectedly rapid resurgence of the Chinese Manufacturing sector.

And this despite continuing Covid related problems impacting negatively on 55% of survey respondents.

The Chinese Sales Growth Index won the star of the month award, rising almost 4 points to a hefty 53.4 reading.

But all growth related Chinese manufacturing Indexes rose in January, in the first survey of the month results collected prior to the start of the Chinese New Year.

It's far too early to suggest that the idling engines of global economic activity will all miraculously be re-energised by resurgent Chinese growth.

But there is no doubt that China has been the primary motor of global growth over the past three decades.

And the Sales Managers Index - always the first out each month - has frequently called correctly the speed and direction of Chinese economic activity in the past.
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