Thought for the day

Global Sales Managers Index Treads Water in May

Of the three biggest global growth engines, only India - is providing power


 
19 April 2024
 
The threat of global recession in 2023 continues to recede, as new May Sales Managers Survey data shows China, India and the USA all in positive territory.

These three economies together have provided close to 60% of all global growth in recent years, so their steady recovery from the dire straits of Covid is good news.

However growth overall has been relatively modest in 2023 to date, and May Sales Survey data produced a small reversal of even the modest growth seen in both China and the USA.

Global Sales Growth Index
Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change')
Global Sales Managers Index Treads Water in May

All global sales related Indexes remained above the crucial 50 "no growth " line in May. But by far the most promising Survey results came from the Indian economy, now moving ahead at some speed. The Chinese economy appears still in recovery mode, with 40% of companies reporting continuing lockdown related problems. And the US economy appears, unsurprisingly, to be being held back by the recent (and significant) interest rate rises.

It's too early to suggest that the possibility of global economic recession in 2023 has been entirely banished. But there is no doubt that China has been the primary motor of global growth over the past four decades, so the relatively slow revival of economic activity in China is a negative sign for global GDP growth expectations in 2023.
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