Thought for the day

The Future is Asian

5 December 2023
The world economy has radically changed over the past decade. The Asian share of global GDP has risen from 38% to 45%, and is likely to exceed 50% by 2030.

Percentage Share of Global GDP: 2030
Using 10-year CAGR for projections
The Future is Asian
* GDP in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data.

Today, the Asian share of global GDP is over 45%, whereas Europe and North America combined now account for less: about 36%. An extraordinary change in a remarkably short space of time. Clearly mostly a result of the furious growth seen in China and India over the period, but mirrored by rapid growth in many other Asian nations.

If GDP growth differentials between the continents continue at anything like the rate established between 2012 and 2022, Asian GDP is likely to account for over half of global GDP by 2030. Evidence on current economic growth is less certain that usual, with the Covid pandemic, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine making a mess of economic trend data. There is evidence that the great growth engines of the past decade - the Chinese and Indian economies - have slowed down. However few economists believe that the difference in growth rates seen in the years prior to Covid, between the emerging economies of Asia, and the developed western markets, will disappear, particularly in view of the current political problems of America, and the uncertainty released by the vicious war launched in Europe by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

In summary, on trends visible to date, the rise of Asia is unlikely to halt anytime soon.  See more data...

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