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Thought for the day
The Rise and Rise of Asia
Last updated: 7 June 2024
The world economy has radically changed over the past decade. The Asian share of global GDP has risen from 48%, and is likely to be around 58% by 2030.
Percentage Share of Global GDP: 2030
Using 5-year CAGR for projections
Using 5-year CAGR for projections to 2030, the Asian share of global GDP is likely to be around 58%, whereas Europe and North America combined will possibly account for a lot less: about 28%. An extraordinary change in a remarkably short space of time. Clearly mostly a result of the furious growth seen in China and India over the period, but mirrored by rapid growth in many other Asian nations.
If GDP growth differentials between the continents continue at anything like the rate established between 2018 and 2023, Asian GDP is likely to account for around 58% of global GDP by 2030, while Europe and North America’s combined contribution is likely to shrink to around 27%. Evidence on current economic growth is less certain that usual, with the Covid pandemic, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine making a mess of economic trend data. There is evidence that the great growth engines of the past decade - the Chinese and Indian economies - have slowed down. However few economists believe that the difference in growth rates seen in the years prior to Covid, between the emerging economies of Asia, and the developed western markets, will disappear, particularly in view of the current political problems of America, and the uncertainty released by the vicious war launched in Europe by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.
In summary, on trends visible to date, the rise of Asia is unlikely to halt anytime soon.
See the Asia Review...
More perspectives using World Economics data
Dire Demographics across the Americas
The Americas have seen some of the sharpest downturns in fertility rates globally from 1970 to the present. The rate in Mexico, Chile and Jamaica, for example, has fallen threefold across that period and is now below the replacement threshold. Most countries across the Americas are now also below the replacement threshold. This means population growth will stagnate creating, in turn, more elderly demo...
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The Places that Matter
Four areas of the world are now far ahead of all other places in both economic and political terms. They are China; the EU (although not a country it is a political and economic entity with many of the characteristics of a country); the USA and India. This list is in order of GDP size, calculated in Purchasing Power Parity terms with additional estimates for their Informal economies and for the age of...
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Poor Governance in the Global South
The Global South does not shine as a beacon of Good Governance. In the World Economics Global Governance rankings, the South registers badly, with only two countries (out of 99) rated A grade, only 14 countries rated as B Grade, and 54 rated D (poor) or E grade (pretty awful). The Global Governance Index combines the results of the independently generated Rule of Law Index (1); Press Freedom Index (...
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