US Business Confidence Remains Low in August


 
OVERALL PICTURE: The overall Sales Managers Index reflects a modest recovery in business activity in August, with the Index itself now fractionally above the 50 "no growth" line. This is some way from expressing boom times in the US economy but does suggest the possibility of recession in 2025 has receded.

Headline Sales Managers Index now fractionally above the 50 'no growth' mark
Diffusion Index: 50 = ‘no growth’
US Business Confidence Remains Low in August


BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: The US Sales Managers Survey results for August show a bounce back from the bleak July results. In particular Business Confidence has recovered from its near 5-year low July reading but still illustrates a sharp fall in "animal spirits" since the November 2024 Presidential election. The low level of confidence reflects the concerns felt by the sales manager community over the near continual and unforecastable changes in tariff levels with overseas trading partners.

SALES: The Market Growth and Sales Indexes both rose significantly in August, with some respondents indicating that the rise was at least partly in response to previous hesitation in ordering supplies while confidence remained so low.

JOBS: The Jobs Index remains below the 50 "no change " line, with a August Index reading of 47, now some way above its 34-month low of July, but still not indicating significant recovery in the job market.

The Sales Managers data is based on a regular panel (rather than a survey) of executives which tends to vary much less in response rate terms.

In summary, there is little doubt that the continuous stream of edicts pouring out of the US President's office continue to cause uncertainty in the business community on a scale never before seen outside wartime.


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