Mexico: Declining growth and high levels of corruption

Updated: November 2022.


Key Insights
  • Mexico has experienced increasingly declining growth for the past 5 years.
  • Wealth, in GDP per capita terms is lower than the average in the Americas and Emerging Markets generally.
  • Mexico suffers from poor governance and high levels of corruption.
 
ECONOMY SIZE

  • When measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms, including estimates for its large informal economy, Mexico's GDP is the twelfth largest in the world, the third largest in the Americas region and sixth largest in the Emerging Markets.
Gross Domestic Product: 2021
Ranked by GDP
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GDP PPP
(Billions)
GDP Data Quality
Grade
Share of
Global GDP
%





Russia $5,540 C 3.4%
Germany $4,890 A 3.0%
Indonesia $4,519 B 2.7%
Brazil $4,167 B 2.5%
Turkey $3,487 B 2.1%
France $3,449 A 2.1%
United Kingdom $3,401 A 2.1%
Mexico $3,252 B 2.0%
Italy $3,064 A 1.9%
Korea, Rep. $2,801 A 1.7%
Saudi Arabia $2,220 B 1.3%
Spain $2,188 A 1.3%
Canada $2,037 A 1.2%
Nigeria $1,934 D 1.2%
Egypt $1,855 C 1.1%

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GDP Data Quality

Data Quality Ratings: Americas Region
Index: 0 = Extremely poor quality, 100 = Good as it gets
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Data
Quality
Index
Data
Quality
Grade
Base
Year
SNA
Version
Informal
Economy %
Resoucres
Index 0-100
Corruption
Index 0-100





Chile 89.8 A Chained 2008 19.3 86.7 67
Costa Rica 86.5 A Chained 2008 26.6 91.1 58
Bahamas, The 81.3 B 2013 2008 30.2 100.0 64
Colombia 79.1 B Chained 2008 33.3 82.2 39
Brazil 78.8 B Chained 2008 33.2 81.1 38
Dominican Republic 75.4 B Chained 2008 33.9 72.2 30
Mexico 71.6 B 2013 2008 29.2 80.0 31
Guatemala 70.1 C Chained 2008 48.6 73.3 25
El Salvador 69.8 C 2014 2008 40.9 82.2 34
Trinidad and Tobago 66.3 C 2012 2008 31.6 47.8 41
Argentina 65.6 C 2004 2008 27.3 78.9 38
Paraguay 64.4 C 2014 2008 46.5 65.6 30
Uruguay 63.5 C 2005 1993 31.7 80.0 73
Peru 63.4 C 2007 2008 42.2 80.0 36

Access the interactive all country Data Quality Ratings table

Key:
Data Quality Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Poor, 100 = Excellent.

Resources Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Low level of resources, 100 = High level of resources.

Corruption Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = High corruption, 100 = Low corruption.

Grade definitions:
         A: As good as it gets;
         B: Use with caution;
         C: Unreliable for many purposes
         D: Extremely poor quality.


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ECONOMIC GROWTH

  • Mexico's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last 10, 5 and 3 years was 1.4%, -0.1% and -1.5% respectively.
  • On a 5-year CAGR basis Mexico ranks as one of the slowest growing economies in the Americas region and 21st of 24 countries in the Emerging Markets over the past decade.
Mexico's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last 10-years
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Global
Rank:
GDP Data
Quality:
Grade
CAGR
10 Year:
2011-2021
CAGR
5 Year:
2016-2021
CAGR
3 Year:
2018-2021
Global Growth
Share:
Percentage




Tunisia 117 C 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweden 118 A 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Mauritius 119 A 1.6% -0.4% -3.1% 0.0%
Croatia 120 A 1.6% 2.6% 2.4% 0.1%
Sudan 121 D 1.6% 0.3% -0.2% 0.1%
Burundi 122 D 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0%
Canada 123 A 1.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6%
Mexico 124 B 1.4% -0.1% -1.5% 1.0%
United Kingdom 125 A 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0%
Cyprus 126 A 1.4% 3.3% 1.7% 0.0%
Azerbaijan 127 C 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Russia 128 C 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5%
Ecuador 129 C 1.3% -0.1% -1.3% 0.1%
Namibia 130 C 1.3% -1.4% -2.4% 0.0%
Belgium 131 A 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2%

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  • Over the past 10 years the global economy has grown by 27%. Mexico's contribution to this growth was 1.0% once allowances are made for the informal economy size.

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WEALTH

  • GDP per Capita has grown by only 2% over past 10 years in Mexico, performing poorly comparaed to other countries in South America and in the Emerging Markets generally.
  • In GDP per Capita terms, Mexico ranks 12th for the Americas region and 15th for the Emerging Markets - below the averages for each region.
Mexico's GDP Per Capita Growth: 10 Years
Index: 1996 = 100

GDP Per Capita: Americas Region
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GDP Per Capita
PPP
(Int$)
GDP per Capita
Data Quality
Grade





Panama $43,721 C
Trinidad and Tobago $32,304 C
Uruguay $32,125 C
Chile $30,932 A
Argentina $30,058 C
Costa Rica $26,874 A
Dominican Republic $25,315 B
Mexico $24,962 B
Colombia $19,670 B
Brazil $19,471 B
Paraguay $19,309 C
Peru $19,168 C
Ecuador $15,609 C
El Salvador $12,776 C
Guatemala $12,441 B
Americas Average $29,180 -
Emerging Markets Average $38,310 -

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INEQUALITY

  • The distribution of income in an economy and can be measured on a country by country basis by the Gini Coefficient. Gini values are not all up-to-date but in the case of Mexico the data relates to 2018, so is relatively recent.
  • World Economics has Indexed the Gini Coefficient in relation to each country for comparison purposes. The Index is on a scale of 0-100. A high value indicates a more egalitarian society - and a low value suggests a lot of the national income is in the hands of a relatively small section of the population.
  • Mexico ranks 125th globally, 13rd for the Americas region and 19th in the Emerging Markets for Inequality.
Inequality Rankings: Americas Region
Index: 0-100, 0 = High Inequality; 100 = High Equality
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Regional
Rank
Inequality
Index
Poverty
% of Population




United States 6 34.3 -
Peru 7 34.1 2.6%
Bolivia 8 34.0 4.5%
Dominican Republic 9 33.5 0.4%
Argentina 10 31.9 -
Chile 11 29.5 -
Guyana 12 29.4 -
Mexico 13 27.9 1.7%
Jamaica 14 27.8 -
Ecuador 15 27.5 3.3%
Paraguay 16 27.5 1.6%
Nicaragua 17 26.7 3.2%
Honduras 18 23.5 16.5%
Costa Rica 19 23.5 -
Guatemala 20 23.3 8.7%

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DEBT

  • World Economics produces GDP data in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data.
  • Mexico's is officially reported as having a debt-to-GDP ratio is calculated to be 57.6% by the IMF.
  • Using the World Economics GDP database, Mexico's GDP is calculated to be 35% larger than official estimates. Its debt ratio is consequently calculated at 42.8%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio for Emerging Market Countries
Ranked by % of GDP
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Global
Rank
Debt-to-GDP
Ratio




Qatar 69 45.4%
Guinea-Bissau 70 45.2%
Rwanda 71 45.0%
Malta 72 44.2%
Poland 73 44.0%
Trinidad and Tobago 74 43.9%
Armenia 75 43.3%
Mexico 76 42.7%
Ecuador 77 42.3%
Kenya 78 42.0%
Korea, Rep. 79 41.8%
Romania 80 41.5%
Kyrgyzstan 81 41.5%
Serbia 82 41.3%
Philippines 83 41.1%
Americas Average   52.5%
Emerging Markets Average   45.4%


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POPULATION

  • Mexico is the tenth most populous country in the world with approximately 130 million inhabitants.
  • Mexico last conducted a national census in 2020. Read more from the World Economics Population Data Quality Ratings and see how Mexico compares to other countries around the world and in the Americas region.
Mexico's Population Breakdown
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Population
Size
(Millions)
Median
Age
(Years)
Age
Dependency
(Young)
Age
Dependency
(Old)
Age
Dependency
(Total)





United States 332.9 38.3 28.3% 25.6% 53.9%
Indonesia 276.4 29.7 38.3% 9.2% 47.5%
Pakistan 225.2 22.8 57.2% 7.1% 64.4%
Brazil 214.0 33.5 29.7% 13.8% 43.5%
Nigeria 211.4 18.1 80.9% 5.1% 86.0%
Bangladesh 166.3 27.6 39.3% 7.7% 47.0%
Russia 145.9 39.6 27.8% 23.5% 51.2%
Mexico 130.3 29.2 38.8% 11.4% 50.3%
Japan 126.1 48.4 21.0% 48.0% 69.0%
Ethiopia 117.9 19.5 70.6% 6.3% 76.8%
Philippines 111.0 25.7 46.6% 8.6% 55.2%
Egypt 104.3 24.6 55.8% 8.8% 64.6%
Vietnam 98.2 32.5 33.6% 11.4% 45.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep 92.4 17.0 89.5% 5.9% 95.4%
Turkey 85.0 31.5 35.7% 13.4% 49.1%

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  • Mexico has a young population profile of 38.8% and an old population profile of 11.4%. The average age is 29.2 years old.

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ENVIRONMENT

  • Mexico's total emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Methane are considerable placing it in the top 10 of polluters by volume but on per capita level, Mexico moves down the list considerably.
  • The World Economics Emissions Index (on a scale of 0-100, 0=bad, 100=good) gauges the relative emissions for a country. The Emissions Index is based on the equal weighting of total Carbon and Methane emissions.
Environmental Factors
Index: 0 = High Emissions, 100 = Low Emissions
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Emissions
Index
0-100
Carbon
Emissions
Total
Carbon
Emissions
Per Capita
Methane
Emissions
Total
Methane
Emissions
Per Capita
Air
Quality
PM2.5
Water
Access
per capita





China 0.0 10,174.7 7.1 1,239.0 0.9 45.8 94.3%
United States 48.9 5,284.7 15.9 623.8 1.9 7.4 99.0%
Russia 57.3 1,678.4 11.5 853.0 5.9 9.8 97.0%
India 60.1 2,615.8 1.9 669.3 0.5 68.8 90.5%
Brazil 80.8 465.7 2.2 418.0 2.0 11.6 99.0%
Indonesia 83.4 617.5 2.2 335.1 1.2 19.1 92.4%
Mexico 92.0 438.5 3.4 145.1 1.1 22.7 99.0%
Australia 92.3 411.0 15.9 139.9 5.4 7.1 99.0%
Pakistan 92.7 248.8 1.1 151.0 0.7 58.8 90.1%
Canada 93.3 576.7 15.2 95.5 2.5 6.4 99.0%
Japan 93.7 1,106.7 8.8 21.1 0.2 13.4 99.0%
Nigeria 94.2 140.0 0.7 127.9 0.6 61.7 77.6%
Germany 94.4 702.0 8.4 53.4 0.6 11.5 99.0%

See: Access the interactive all country Environmental data table

Key:
Emissions Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Bad, 100 = Good.

Notes:
Format: Carbon data in Million MtCO2e and Methane data in MtCO2e, Air Quality: PM2.5

Methodology: Total Carbon and Total Methane data for each country has been indexed on a scale of 0-100 by using the standard deviation from the mean for each country. The implied Indexes are averaged to calculate a total Emissions Index which focuses on each countries emissions.

  • Mexico's average annual temperature in 2021 was 21.8 degrees centigrade (71.5 Fahrenheit).
  • Temperatures in Mexico have been steadily rising since 1970.
Averge Annual Temerature by Year: Mexico

Source: CCKP. World Bank Group, Climate Change Knowledge Portal


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SOCIAL

  • The World Economics Social Index averages multiple key social indicators covering Health, Education and Employment.
  • Mexico has a worse than average rank for its social metrics, 80th out of 155 countries and 14th of 25 in the Americas region.
Social Factors: Americas Region
Index: 0 = Poor metrics, 100 = Excellent metrics
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Social
Factors
Index
Life
Expectancy
Years
Median
Age
Years
Mean Years
Schooling
Years
Spend on
Education
% of GDP
Population
in Work
Population %
Population
in Poverty
%





Peru 85.2 76.7 31.0 9.7 3.7% 75.1% 2.6%
Ecuador 83.1 77.0 27.9 8.9 5.0% 65.3% 3.3%
Mexico 82.7 75.1 29.2 8.8 4.9% 58.6% 1.7%
Paraguay 81.9 74.3 26.3 8.5 3.4% 68.6% 1.6%
Colombia 81.9 77.3 31.3 8.5 4.5% 62.1% 4.1%
Brazil 80.0 75.9 33.5 8.0 6.2% 56.2% 4.4%
El Salvador 77.8 73.3 27.6 6.9 3.6% 56.7% 1.5%

Access the interactive all country Social data table

Key:
Social Factors Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100
         0 = Poor social metrics, 100 = Excellent social metrics.

  • 1.7% of Mexico's population is living in poverty. Poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day at 2011 international prices
  • Mexico spends 4.9% of GDP on education, each pupil receives 8.8 years of schooling (on average) - the same as the global average.

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GOVERNANCE

  • Mexico ranks 74th globally, 14th in the Americas region and 13th in the Emerging Markets for Governance.
Governance Factors Index: Americas Region
Index: 0 = Poor, 100 = Good
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Governance
Index
(0-100 Index)
Rule of Law
Index
(0-100 Index)
Press Freedom
(0-100 Index)
Political Rights
(0-100 Index)
Corruption
Perceptions
(0-100 Index)




Brazil 53.5 44.3 59.8 78.6 31.5
Peru 53.0 40.2 66.6 73.8 31.5
Dominican Republic 52.4 42.1 83.0 66.7 17.8
Ecuador 51.7 35.1 69.7 69.0 32.9
El Salvador 48.3 29.9 58.4 76.2 28.8
Paraguay 47.7 38.4 63.0 71.4 17.8
Colombia 47.3 36.5 45.8 73.8 32.9
Mexico 43.6 32.1 51.3 69.0 21.9
Bolivia 40.6 20.2 51.4 69.0 21.9
Guatemala 35.7 22.6 51.7 54.8 13.7
Honduras 31.2 25 37.4 50.0 12.3
Nicaragua 24.2 18.6 40.0 28.6 9.6

Access the interactive all country Governance table

Key:
The World Economics Governance Index gives equal weight to all four criteria.

Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.

Governance: 0 = Poor governance, 100 = As good as it gets.
Corruption Perceptions: 0 = Bad, 100 = Good.
Rule of Law: 0 = low rule of law, 100 = High rule of law.
Press Freedom: 0 = Low press freedom, 100 = High press freedom.
Political Rights: 0 = Low political rights, 100 = High political rights.



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