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The Numbers Racket

Devoted to illuminating the perilous state of economic data

Serious Errors on UK Telecoms Data: Prices could have fallen by 90% more than the official price index

The Office of National Statistics (ONS), Britain’s official data agency, has admitted that it has made serious errors in its estimation of the output and productivity of the telecoms sector.

Gender Matters in Poverty

Most Africans suffer poverty and inequality in various different forms, including income and employment, geography, age and gender. The gender dimension is particularly significant, with poverty rates among women and girls far higher than among men or boys.

The Strange Story of Cote d’Ivoire’s Disappearing Coins

Cote d’Ivoire is by some accounts one of Africa’s best performing economies, with a reported GDP of 7.4% in 2018. It seems to do well in foreign direct investment, with total FDI stock of $10.2 billion, representing 23.8% of the country's GDP. So why does Cote d’Ivoire harbour precious little small change?

Forging New Value Chains For African Goods

Although trade statistics are unable to reveal what originates where, and what is sold at which price, with sometimes unintended and dramatic effects on trade relations, significant commodity value chains originating in Africa have been circumnavigating the world for decades. But Africa benefits the least as their commodities and natural resources are invariably just hoisted out of the earth and immediately exported for onward processing and value enhancement.

Most Read - Last 3 Years

Lords of Poverty

Neither Oxfam or the USA appears keen to see Rwanda start up a garment business. Here's why...

Measuring Hyperinflation:
Venezuela's Episode

Venezuela now exhibits the 57th historic episode of hyperinflation as measured in the Hanke–Krus World Hyperinflation Table. Entry to the hyperinflation dataset depends on three qualifying criteria...

GDP Revisions Rewrite Economic History

Revisions of national accounts affect economic analysis, calling into question theoretical findings based on earlier data. Revisions to German national accounts have resulted in a markedly higher GDP in absolute terms and a lower volatility in ...

Time to Overhaul Global Trade Estimates

The rise of global production networks since the 1980s changed the way we understand international trade and has profound repercussions on development policies and the conduct of global governance. New comparative advantages allow large developing countries to leap...

How Accurate Are China's National Balance Sheets?

The accuracy of data on China’s national balance sheets has attracted much less attention than that of the Gross Domestic Product reports. China’s Bureau of National Statistics has not released official national balance sheets, but two research teams...

Analysis of revisions in Indian GDP Data

This paper studies constant price growth estimates of India's annual GDP data in order to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistics Office. The used of high-frequency indicators...

Errors in Demographic and Other Quantitative Data

Statistical data consumed, anylised and produced contain errors from more sources than is often recognised and the commercialisation of survey and other statistical research and 'inventions' such as 'big data' has led to naive...

About World Economics

Economic data underpin almost all key investment decisions.

Yet the numbers on which so much weight is placed are badly flawed to an extent few realise.

Discover how World Economics provides investors, economists and governments with guides to what data can be trusted and what cannot.

Global Growth Halted

World Economy Mired In Recession

The fall in economic growth is likely to worsen in Q2

Mongolian Economic Data

Mongolian SMI Continues to Plung in March

Mongolian Economic Activity Falls to the Lowest Level Recorded in the 7 Year History of this Index. But There is Hope…

First China Economic Data

Sales Managers Index Survey Shows China’s Economy Still in Negative Territory

Business Confidence is marginally up on a month ago. However many markets are still reeling from the problems caused by the Coronavirus.

Price Measurement

Why Price Data Are Mostly Wrong

Is US GDP is 51% bigger than China's? Or is China 24% bigger than the US? It’s all down to how you measure prices. Here's why...

First US Economic Data

U.S. Economy Shrinks Dramatically in March

Sales Managers Survey Records All Time Lows in Activity.

First India Economic Data

Indian Economy Records Growth, but Coronavirus Problems Still to Surface

The Headline Sales Managers Index rose slightly above the levels seen in February, but stayed firmly in "survey all-time lows" territory.

Demographics

Japan Won’t Stop Surprising Us

Japan has handled its demographic policies perfectly with the number of people on payrolls increasing over the past 10 years outperforming other developed economies.

Data Quality Ratings

This column reviews and rates the accuracy and utility of economic data worldwide.

GDP, population, and capacity to produce data are analysed below. Price, employment, dependency, inequality and other forms of economic data will be reviewed through 2020.

GDP

Check your Country's GDP Data Quality Rating

Population

Global Population Data Accuracy Ratings

The accuracy of population data varies widely across countries. The most comprehensive data on the number of people living in a territory and their demographic profile, a vital component for public sector economic and social planning and also for private sector needs, is usually available from the result of a census. Read more