Latest Papers

The latest papers published in the World Economics Journal.



On Measuring Hyperinflation On Measuring Hyperinflation: Venezuela’s Episode
Steve H. Hanke & Charles Bushnell, World Economics, September 2017
Venezuela now exhibits the 57th historic episode of hyperinflation as measured in the Hanke–Krus World Hyperinflation Table. Entry to the hyperinflation dataset depends on three qualifying criteria: inflation rates greater than 50% per month; the persistence of this rat ... More


Measuring Income Inequality and Insufficiency Measuring Income Inequality and Insufficiency: The Philippine Experience
Percival S. Gabriel, World Economics, September 2017
Income inequality is normally illustrated by the Lorenz curve and measured by the Gini coefficient and other variant measures. Standard estimates exclude what is left of income when expenditure is subtracted and some groups have income insufficiency, income sufficiency ... More


How Accurate Are the National Balance Sheets for China? How Accurate Are the National Balance Sheets for China?
James L. Chan, World Economics, September 2017
The accuracy of data on China’s national balance sheets has attracted much less attention than that of the Gross Domestic Product reports. China’s Bureau of National Statistics has not released official national balance sheets, but two Chinese research teams have produc ... More


Flow of Funds Accounts Flow of Funds Accounts: The Financial and Non-Financial Sector Linkages in India
Tarlok Singh, World Economics, September 2017
This study uses historic flow of funds data in India and examines the movements of funds across financial and non-financial sectors of the economy. The study develops a new theoretical framework to map the multidimensional nexus across macro-economic aggregates and to ... More


The Unstoppable Economic Rise of Asia The Unstoppable Economic Rise of Asia
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, September 2017
The Asia-Pacific region is set to remain the world’s economic powerhouse in terms of economic growth for the next few decades. In value terms, Asian GDP increased between 1970 and 2015 from $4.63 trillion to $45.39 trillion in constant prices, an increase well above the ... More


Estimating the Impact of Foreign Trade on GDP Growth in Sweden Estimating the Impact of Foreign Trade on GDP Growth in Sweden: Evidence from Historical Data 1800–2000
Manuchehr Irandoust, World Economics, September 2017
This paper uses historic economic data to review Swedish foreign trade and industrial policy over the period 1800–2000. The long-term causal relationships between imports, exports and economic growth are examined. The results show that there exists a long-term relation ... More


Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, World Economics, September 2017
In 1950 Morgenstern pointed out that absolute precision and certainty are impossible in economic observations, but estimates are often hampered by a substantial degree of measurement error. Unlike the natural sciences, economists in general do not report measurement er ... More


Beyond the Shadow Economy Beyond the Shadow Economy : Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism
George C. Georgiou, World Economics, September 2017
Money laundering is illegal world-wide and constitutes a significant economic inefficiency. Current anti-money laundering and combating the financing (AML/CFT) efforts are primarily driven by the threat of terrorism and drug-trafficking, but the majority of illicit mon ... More


What Makes Maddison Right What Makes Maddison Right: Chinese Historic Economic Data
Jan Luiten van Zanden & Debin Ma, World Economics, September 2017
The ‘Great Divergence debate’ in economic history relates to the question of when China fell behind the levels of well-being in Western Europe. A recent paper published in this journal argues that existing historical data cannot answer this question and criticizes estim ... More


Quantifying the Quantifiable Quantifying the Quantifiable: A Reply to Jan-Luiten van Zanden and Debin Ma
Patrick O'Brien & Kent Deng, World Economics, September 2017




New Estimates of Regional GDP in the UK New Estimates of Regional GDP in the UK
Julian Gough, World Economics, June 2017
Real GDP is estimated by applying a price-level estimate or deflator to nominal GDP, but GDP levels in the UK’s 12 inhabited regions are only reported at nominal prices with no allowance for differences in regional prices. A purchasing power parity (PPP) rate for the £ ... More


Why Maddison was Wrong Why Maddison was Wrong: The Great Divergence Between Imperial China and the West
Kent Deng & Patrick O'Brien, World Economics, June 2017
Much academic debate in Western and Chinese universities has engaged in testing the hypothesis that standards of living in China did not fall behind those of the populations of the national economies of Western Europe until late in the eighteenth century Unfortunately, ... More


Double Deflation Casts Doubt on Existing GDP Data Double Deflation Casts Doubt on Existing GDP Data
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, June 2017
Increasingly, national income statisticians, the specialists involved in producing real national income figures, and the users of those figures are living in a parallel universe. Most countries use an outdated and inaccurate method to estimate real Gross Domestic Produ ... More


Building a New Testable Model to Estimate Total Factor Productivity Building a New Testable Model to Estimate Total Factor Productivity
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, June 2017
A new model to measure Total Factor Productivity free from the flaws which exist in previous models; appropriate data are used to test it. The model distinguishes between the contributions made to investment and growth by changes in technology and other non-technology v ... More


Assessing the G20’s Mutual Assessment Process: A MAP but Little Direction Assessing the G20’s Mutual Assessment Process: A MAP but Little Direction
Graham Bird, World Economics, June 2017
After the global economic and financial crisis, the G20 has tried to orchestrate an internationally coordinated approach to economic recovery. In late 2009, the Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) was introduced to minimize risk by reducing global economic imbalances and e ... More


Measuring the Elusive Middle Class and Estimating its Role in Economic Development and Democracy Measuring the Elusive Middle Class and Estimating its Role in Economic Development and Democracy
Giovanna Maria Dora Dore, World Economics, June 2017
The middle class has a special role in economic, political, and social thought, but social scientists seem unable to agree on how to define or measure it. This article stems from an ongoing Johns Hopkins University project on populist and autocratic attitudes worldwide ... More


How to Reconcile Democracy, the State and the Global Market How to Reconcile Democracy, the State and the Global Market
Giovanni Farese & Paolo Savona, World Economics, June 2017
Nation states were the vehicle for market capitalism, but global market capitalism has freed itself from regulations imposed by nation states. A trilemma between democracy, the state and the market became an irreconcilable one, and gathered momentum. The post-War period ... More


Problem or Solution: Data on Sub-National Debt for Infrastructural Development in Nigeria Problem or Solution: Data on Sub-National Debt for Infrastructural Development in Nigeria
Kingsley Imandojemu, World Economics, June 2017
Nigeria has witnessed a substantial rise in sub-national debt at the state level in an economy characterised by infrastructural decay and macro-economic imbalance. The mismanagement of sub-national debt in Nigeria has culminated in the inability of most states to meet t ... More


The Data Quality Index The Data Quality Index
World Economics
World Economics, June 2017
GDP data is important used to apportion funds from international organisations, to influence rating agency decisions and much more, but official data is totally inadequate for the demands made of it. The notion of GDP data is flawed conceptually, but there are also seve ... More


Neglect Private Debt at the Economy’s Peril? Neglect Private Debt at the Economy’s Peril?: Applying Balance Sheet Recession Analysis to the Post Bail-in Cyprus Economy
Leslie G. Manison & Savvakis C. Savvides, World Economics, March 2017
The role of private debt as a cause of financial crises and prolonged recessions is often neglected. In Cyprus policy concern has focused on government debt despite the problem of a rapid growth of private debt and its wasteful use. Private debt in Cyprus stands at over ... More


Are Estimates of the Economic Contribution of Financial Services Reliable Are Estimates of the Economic Contribution of Financial Services Reliable
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, March 2017
The methods used to estimate the contribution of financial services to national income are seriously flawed. Banking sector output in the UK was estimated to have increased in 2008 while the financial services sector was collapsing. The relative contribution of service ... More


Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Reforms: The Case of the GCC Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Reforms: The Case of the GCC
Ahmed Hashim Alyushaa, World Economics, March 2017
Public spending has raised the welfare of citizens in the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) significantly over the period 1960–2015, particularly as measured in raised average life expectancy and lowered infant mortality rates. Fiscal policy in oil-producing countries is ... More


Defending Development Defending Development: An Evaluation of the Multidimensional Poverty Index
Raadhika Vishvesh, World Economics, March 2017
The need to define development has witnessed many attempts to condense a country’s economic deprivation into a single figure. In order to target poor citizens, it is important to classify those who are ‘non-poor’ by a poverty statistic. Crucial steps in the creation and ... More


Measuring the Impact of Agricultural Finance on Rural Inequality: Evidence from Egypt Measuring the Impact of Agricultural Finance on Rural Inequality: Evidence from Egypt
Heba Farida Ahmed Fathy El-laithy, Ahmed Rostom & Lamia Donia , World Economics, March 2017
Evidence suggests that financial development and improved access to credit not only accelerates economic growth, but also reduces household poverty and income inequality. Using Egyptian household survey data evidence it is found that a 1% increase in agricultural wages ... More


The Impact of Minimum Wage Legislation The Impact of Minimum Wage Legislation
Julian Gough, World Economics, March 2017
Minimum wage policies are powerful political tools, but the economic effects are unlikely to be in the interests of society as a whole. Wages should be left to the free operation of market forces. Minimum wage rate policies are only effective in low-wage industries: the ... More


Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment in Economic Transformation: Toward an Institutional Framework Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment in Economic Transformation: Toward an Institutional Framework
Patrick Schena & Asim Ali, World Economics, March 2017
The prospect of prolonged lower hydrocarbon and commodity prices has forced many countries to reconsider both fiscal policy and sovereign wealth fund asset allocation to address possible liquidity needs. In order to analyze the diversity and effectiveness of public inve ... More


The Environmental Kuznets Curve The Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Validity of Kuznets and its Policy Implications
Harry Booth, World Economics, March 2017
The Kuznets curve is an income inequality measure used in development studies which predicts an inverse-U shape with inequality first rising with industrialisation and then declining, as more and more workers join the high-productivity sectors of the economy. Criticism ... More